Trading the SPI

[Realist]

Ageo,

Lets say I buy the SPI at the open each quarter and sell at the close each quarter and do so for the past 10 years.

Now compare my results with your current results.

I win!

I know you'll agree.

Simple as that. and I do not even know your results or the SPI results.


Your one and only answer is "yeah but it may crash"

My answer is when has it ever crashed? When has the sky ever fallen? when have Sydney house prices ever crashed?

And any example you give can be blown out of the water by all the increases over the time.


You wont accept it, but time in the market is more important than timing the market.

 

[Realist]

Oh no, not in this thread too!

YES IN THIS THREAD TO!!!

What is the SPI now?

 

[Bronte]

4915 That's another 25 bucks :hide:

 

[wayneL]

Trading with stop losses is done by Roulette punters.

They plan to leave with small losses and try and make large gains when their luck is in.

It works their losses are small and gains large.

BUT.. The problem is the number of small losses outweigh the large gains.

you are obviously not aware of the expectancy equation.

In roulette, no matter what staking plan, stop losses, whatever you use, you cannot remove the negative expectancy.

Traders in markets can create positive expectancies. It is not easy because of psychological reasons. But it is relatively simple.

This is not rocket science

 

[wayneL]

Ageo,

Lets say I buy the SPI at the open each quarter and sell at the close each quarter and do so for the past 10 years.

Now compare my results with your current results.

I win!

I know you'll agree.

Simple as that. and I do not even know your results or the SPI results.


Your one and only answer is "yeah but it may crash"

My answer is when has it ever crashed? When has the sky ever fallen? when have Sydney house prices ever crashed?

And any example you give can be blown out of the water by all the increases over the time.


You wont accept it, but time in the market is more important than timing the market.

The reason Ageo will beat you is because he will trade in a face value many many times that you will be able to invest in.

Ageo wins

 

[Realist]

The reason Ageo will beat you is because he will trade in a face value many many times that you will be able to invest in.

Ageo wins

I wonder Wayne.

I don't doubt some traders would beat me, I suspect 95% would not though.

Your thoughts?

What about your thoughts on Brent Penfold saying 90% of traders lose on the SPI?

Psychology?? What is an example - do you not trade mechanically?

 

[Ageo]

thankyou Wayne. I didnt want to turn this into a political thread.

No point in trying to prove me wrong Realist.

Like i said if your right then why not go practice what you preach?

Results speak louder than words

 

[Bronte]

4915 That's another 25 bucks :hide:

Let me know when the coast is clear SPI 4912

 

[Realist]

Let me know when the coast is clear SPI 4912

I sold at 3:20 as my per post a few hours ago of course...

 

[Realist]

thankyou Wayne. I didnt want to turn this into a political thread.

No point in trying to prove me wrong Realist.

Like i said if your right then why not go practice what you preach?

Results speak louder than words

I do practice what I preach, or more commonly what Graham preaches.

what on earth are you on about?

 

[wayneL]

I wonder Wayne.

I don't doubt some traders would beat me, I suspect 95% would not though.

Your thoughts?

What about your thoughts on Brent Penfold saying 90% of traders lose on the SPI?

Psychology?? What is an example - do you not trade mechanically?

Psychology...

An example.

Trader is not able to take a loss, so holds a loser then turns into a big loser.

Same trader takes a win as soon as possible so it doesn't turn into a loss.

Repeat.

= one of the 90% of losers.

On the matter of crashes.

It only takes one crash to take you out completely. With futures you can go well past zero. They will come for your assets, your house, your car, your wife... your firstborn if necessary.

e.g. Nick Leeson even took out Barings Bank. The National Bank could have gone the same way with a bit of luck.

******

Just on the roulette scenario. Is not the casino playing the same game? Sure they are, they are betting against you.

One big difference though. They have a positive expectancy and win consistently and win big.

Expectancy dude! That's the difference

 

[Ageo]

I do practice what I preach, or more commonly what Graham preaches.

what on earth are you on about?

So you are trading the SPI live?

and if you are are you taking on large contracts?

 

[Realist]

It only takes one crash to take you out completely. With futures you can go well past zero. They will come for your assets, your house, your car, your wife... your firstborn if necessary.

When has the SPI ever crashed Wayne?

Your broker will stop you out beofer any major trouble usually anyway.

Expectancy is guesswork. The past is no exact representation of what may happen in the future.

Someone with some system with an expectancy may just have bought in at 9:00am on September 11, or 1929 or October 1987. And been shat on.

Expectancy is not a scientific fact!!! It is guesswork!

If charting, trading or expectancies were scientific facts everyone would use them and everyone would make money - they are not though, obviously!!

Your expectancy in reality is worse this year than last year is my guess - and your results will be worse. Your plan is possibly better though. Just a guess, am I right?

 

[Realist]

So you are trading the SPI live?

and if you are are you taking on large contracts?

Certainly not!!

I invest in large undervalued successfull world leaders who make consistent profits and pay large dividends. I then punt with 10% of my money for education, fun and in the vein hope of making a quick buck.

The SPI is gambling, I'm willing to give it a go, I like blackjack, sports betting and horses, but I have no delusions of ever making money from them. I know the odds are against me.

 

[professor_frink]

And now a random thought from the professor.............

Anyone else noticed how often we are having rallies in the final hour of trade followed by a gap down on the next trading session? Fairly regularly at the moment.

Who's game to short now and hold over the weekend

 

[Realist]

Who's game to short now and hold over the weekend

What time does trading open on Monday?

I'd be thinking long early on Monday myself....

 

[Ageo]

Certainly not!!

I invest in large undervalued successfull world leaders who make consistent profits and pay large dividends. I then punt with 10% of my money for education, fun and in the vein hope of making a quick buck.

The SPI is gambling, I'm willing to give it a go, I like blackjack, sports betting and horses, but I have no delusions of ever making money from them. I know the odds are against me.

this whole talk was about you taking 3 month positions on the SPI instead of daytrading.

You then tried to convince me that it would be more profitable.

Now your saying you would never do it?

your definately on speed

 

[professor_frink]

What time does trading open on Monday?

I'd be thinking long early on Monday myself....

9.50.

Don't worry Realist, I'm only joking, no o/n holds for me!(although there was point-it's been happening alot lately)

 

[wayneL]

When has the SPI ever crashed Wayne?

Here's a minor one from not even 10 years ago.

The equivalent move in todays values is 1000 points.

That's $25,000.00 PER CONTRACT

The trader would be profiting from this downside move, not recieving margin calls and ending up at bankruptcy hearings because "the SPI never crashes"

Honestly Realist, it's time to leave the ideological nonsense behind. Invest in the SPI if you want. Many people succesfully do.

Many trade it succesfully, fact! Don't go spoiling another thread with silly arguments you know nothing about.

 

[professor_frink]

Who's game to short now and hold over the weekend

Comments withdrawn, she's fallen too much