Trading the SPI

[Freddo]

Charting and the study of past stock prices can not be ignored because a large proportion of the market does it. Hence stock prices are affected by chartists. A self fulfilling prophecy.

The fact is though if there was a foolproof accurate scientific method for charting and making money then everyone would use it and everyone would make money. Of course that is impossible. So charting is not a science.

It is possible that some charting methodologies work, the problem is the more people that use that methodology the less it works because you are competing with more people to buy and sell at exactly the same time.

If you want to chart successfully you are best to invent your own method. Because the less people that use your method the better.

You see chartists affect stock prices, Companies usually do not change day to day, perceptions do. So when backtesting or trading in hindsight you are really just seeing what other chartists did, patterns occur because chartists make them occur!!

I'd suggest most trading methodologies work better in backtesting than when used on future trades because of this phenomenon.

I agree !
I don't use charts for much of my trading, I use maths and pattern matching
generated by my test suite to detect repeating patterns alot of the time the pattern detected is contrary to generally accepted trade setups

 

[Freddo]

Sycom's down and we are back around 4905 again.
I'm still looking at short entry at 4892, I'd need to see
4975 to start zooming in for a possible long entry.

Might get a chance to go scalping this afternoon

 

[Freddo]

Say! I've got square of nine in my software, but got no idea what values to put in. Anyone care to enlighten me... genuinely interested. It's asking for "anchor value" and "degree".

Cheers

At last young WayneL_walker you have come to the "dark" side
:vader:

Forget the death star, the square of 9 will make you unstoppable

Check out these articles for a start

http://www.marketinsight.com.au/articles/?name=Ganns_Square_of_Nine

http://www.lambertganneducators.com/newsletters/article_squareofnine-part1.php

http://www.lambertganneducators.com/newsletters/article_squareofnine-part2.php

I'm certain I have some brilliant info on the square of nine, it must be good
it cost me $7,500

 

[Realist]

Well the Dow is down overnight, I'll stay out for this morning I think. But I would not be surprised to see a rally - if I miss it so be it.

Wayne the DOW theory is a rotten egg and does not work.

 

[Bronte]

Interesting night :screwy:
Dow -97.4
FTSE +42.4
SPI SYCOM -46

 

[Freddo]

So is Dow theory the Chicken or the egg? Pass!

Cheers

Sorry I know this isn't trading the SPI but
I found the following amusing

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_chicken_or_the_egg

 

[Bronte]

resistance at 1285
support at 1269.5

Which of course means I SSold @ 1285 and covered at 1269.5

And because this is a hindsite trade I had the foresight to put 100's of cars on

Just taking the P!ss

Also:

"I don't trade the SPI"

"Yes, I did make some calls....some live"

"I never sent you a PM"

Still attacking me and not the system Wayne?
Yes, I have admitted that I do have some faults

 

[neo]

I think we could get an upward move after the open today.
However labour force data is due today (11:30 I think)........expected unemployment at 4.9%....if unexpected, could this cause some market moves???

 

[Freddo]

I think we could get an upward move after the open today.
However labour force data is due today (11:30 I think)........expected unemployment at 4.9%....if unexpected, could this cause some market moves???

Good point Neo,

We have seen the market rotating up from 4905/4910 level
and down from just over 5000 during this period of sidewards movement.
So I think it should rally on open today.

My swing chart is pointing down though so I am concentrating looking for an entry on the short side. I won't ignore the long side but it has to do a fair amount of work for my indicators to start lining up for a long entry.

Apart from scalping of course

 

[Ageo]

If the market opens lower (which it should) and then starts to move up, thats when ill jump on.

Hopefully another big swing off the bat today.

 

[Realist]

Yep if there is a rally this morning, which I think there will be on the back of BHP, Westfield (who went ex dividend yesterday), RIO, etc. I'd probably take the gain then short at about 11:25am. The afternoon will be down I'm sure of it..

So just for fun I will buy at the opening price, sell at 11:25am, then short until about 3:40pm...

With No stop losses... yeeeouch. Seat of the pants stuff.

We'll see what I end up with...

Bronte, I look forward to seeing if you can beat this with that dead dudes theory - what did he tell you to do this mornng?

 

[Realist]

If the market opens lower (which it should) and then starts to move up, thats when ill jump on.

Hopefully another big swing off the bat today.

I think, despite the Dow going down overnight the ASX will open higher.

BHP will get the ball rolling, it's a good price now, gonna have a special divvie soon, and went down a fair bit yesterday.

We'll see.. I'lll grab a coffee and watch the action..

 

[Freddo]

Knives are sharpened, I'm free until lunchtime
so it's scalp city.

Here's an overview ...
give the open 6 points then trade in whatever direction it has gone
stop loss 1 point below the open.

Scalping, I'll be using a 2 and 5 minute swing if it doesn't rocket away
in one direction.

Lastly - watch the close for a position trade a trade thay would make most trades pee their pants

 

[Realist]

Knives are sharpened, I'm free until lunchtime
so it's scalp city.

Here's an overview ...
give the open 6 points then trade in whatever direction it has gone
stop loss 1 point below the open.

Scalping, I'll be using a 2 and 5 minute swing if it doesn't rocket away
in one direction.

Fair enough, it should work.

Lastly - watch the close for a position trade a trade thay would make most trades pee their pants

What does this mean, please explain?

 

[Bronte]

You boys are great...
"dead dudes theory"
"pee their pants"
We are with Ageo & neo this morning.
Orders are in to Buy a LOW Open

 

[Freddo]

Fair enough, it should work.



What does this mean, please explain?

What I meant by that was in the same thnking as you mentioned before
don't what everbody else does.

I look for trades that make me sick to the stomach , it's setups that
would make some traders almost wet themselves because it's so contrarian.
I guess it's a bit like a Larry Williams Oops setup.

 

[Ageo]

What I meant by that was in the same thnking as you mentioned before
don't what everbody else does.

I look for trades that make me sick to the stomach , it's setups that
would make some traders almost wet themselves because it's so contrarian.
I guess it's a bit like a Larry Williams Oops setup.

lol nice, i should try that sometime.

 

[Ageo]

missed the open but im long @ 4913 on the A200

20 contracts

stop is 20 points for extra buffer

 

[Bronte]

You boys are great...
"dead dudes theory"
"pee their pants"
We are with Ageo & neo this morning.
Orders are in to Buy a LOW Open

Like shelling peas
Bought Open 4884
+8 +10 Already taken
Stoploss covered
Shooks.....another "Hindsight Trade"

 

[neo]

I'm long and I'm expecting a good rally up...could be wrong though...of course!