Trading the SPI

[Ageo]

... excuse my ignorance or audacity to even ask ... but can someone explain to me the logic behind entering a trade counter to the morning trend with a move of 50 odd points and trying to pick up 1 point and 4 points? What is the risk/reward etc for such a trade? I don't expect a reply, but it just seems like a lot of crock is being spewed. Hope no-one is following or relying on such trades. This market will chew you up and spit you out. Prefer to hang onto the coat tails of the big boys, follow their lead and secure a few points in their wake. Otherwise it's like trying to surf against the direction of the waves.

Sensei i totally agree, but i had to enter a trade or else i was gonna break the laptop so im happy to lose $200 if the trade goes sour (at least im happy again lol).

Better $200 then a new laptop eh?

hehe

 

[Bronte]

Sensei,
Please can you call one of your trades LIVE
Or if you wish call the trade before it happens
As this trade was called today...Buy Support etc

 

[professor_frink]

Bronte,

In regards to your trade today, the S/R level you posted was pretty well the same as yest. Do your S/R levels carry over at all?

Surely one of those levels you were trying to short yest would have provided a short entry this morning, and you had a pretty good target level in the 4910/12 area- lots of chances to take a hefty profit.

 

[Bronte]

Not getting Buy signals as yet.
I have Gann Support at 4915

10.12AM

 

[Bronte]

Bought 4915
Now 4918

10.29AM

 

[Bronte]

As previously posted, If 4915 had held stronger.....
+4 +8 +12 +16 +20 etc

You are correct professor we always allow for TIME.

 

[professor_frink]

Sensei i totally agree, but i had to enter a trade or else i was gonna break the laptop so im happy to lose $200 if the trade goes sour (at least im happy again lol).

Better $200 then a new laptop eh?

hehe

If you really need to do something Ageo, why don't you burn and blow up people with a giant magnifying glass- always works a treat for me

here's the link-

antcity

As previously posted, If 4915 had held stronger.....
+4 +8 +12 +16 +20 etc

You are correct professor we always allow for TIME.

I'm not quite sure how that answers my question bronte! Oh well.

 

[Ageo]

If you really need to do something Ageo, why don't you burn and blow up people with a giant magnifying glass- always works a treat for me

haha thanks (its in German thow?)

anywayz my trade is making money???

its supposed to lose money!!!

 

[Bronte]

Bronte,
In regards to your trade today, the S/R level you posted was pretty well the same as yest. Do your S/R levels carry over at all? yes
Surely one of those levels you were trying to short yest would have provided a short entry this morning, and you had a pretty good target level in the 4910/12 area- lots of chances to take a hefty profit.Agreed

Many of our Gann Support / Resistance areas get adjusted due to TIME

 

[Bronte]

Trade what you see.
The chart shows that we were well oversold
ASX was @ 4955
SPI was @ 4915 Down 40 points
We had Natural Support (Previous Bottoms 4913 / 10)
We had Gann Support (you know these work )
Small Risk with possible Large Reward.

 

[professor_frink]

Many of our Gann Support / Resistance areas get adjusted due to TIME

Ok thanks bronte.

haha thanks (its in German thow?)

anywayz my trade is making money???

its supposed to lose money!!!

That's weird- I copied the address from my bookmarks folder and it's in English

edit: money or not- overtrading will get you Ageo. Play cheesy online games. Send abusive emails to your most hated celebrity. Beat a small child at monopoly and make fun of them for it. Whatever it is, it will help to stop taking trades that are less than perfect

 

[Bronte]

Sensei, or anyone else
Please can you call one of your trades LIVE
Or if you wish call the trade before it happens
As this trade was called today...Buy Support etc

Just for analysis / education purposes. Thanks

 

[Bronte]

Of course I will keep posting my Support / Resistance areas

 

[Ageo]

Well i closed out the trade as i feel there is more downside to come.

+1 point but i feel better for trading regardless of the outcome.

Now back to business

 

[Ageo]

Ok thanks bronte.



That's weird- I copied the address from my bookmarks folder and it's in English

edit: money or not- overtrading will get you Ageo. Play cheesy online games. Send abusive emails to your most hated celebrity. Beat a small child at monopoly and make fun of them for it. Whatever it is, it will help to stop taking trades that are less than perfect

hehe Frink thanks for the advice mate but i havent been over trading. Just i hadnt traded the A200 since 5 days ago and i got a little itchy. But i have made over $1500 during that time on other trades (shares/oil/gold/FX).

But i do agree with you beating young kids at monopoly is by far the best satisfaction hehe.

 

[Sensei]

Sensei i totally agree, but i had to enter a trade or else i was gonna break the laptop so im happy to lose $200 if the trade goes sour (at least im happy again lol).
Better $200 then a new laptop eh?
hehe

... lol ... Ageo please understand ... my comments weren't directed at your trade. I can sympathise with your comments though.

 

[Bronte]

So Sensei,
Are you going to give us a LIVE trade?
Before this week ends, if possible?

 

[Magdoran]

... excuse my ignorance or audacity to even ask ... but can someone explain to me the logic behind entering a trade counter to the morning trend with a move of 50 odd points and trying to pick up 1 point and 4 points? What is the risk/reward etc for such a trade? I don't expect a reply, but it just seems like a lot of crock is being spewed. Hope no-one is following or relying on such trades. This market will chew you up and spit you out. Prefer to hang onto the coat tails of the big boys, follow their lead and secure a few points in their wake. Otherwise it's like trying to surf against the direction of the waves.

Hello Sensei,


I agree with your perspective here. This is counter trend trading – very risky unless you know what you are doing… and the rewards are very limited, and trading them requires high precision timing… and the downside is often substantial. Oh, and the heart palpitations are an added bonus…

Now, what if yesterday a trade was entered short at close to aim for the “Gann support” mentioned? Reduce position size, and trade for a longer period… Again all I see currently is scrabbling for the crumbs with a heavy exposure, and missing the main movement – time and time again on this thread. While I respect there are different styles, if the support projections are this good, why not trade the bulk of the short movement, and stay in a little longer?

I’m a position trader, so I’m just not in the market at all during these consolidations. I’m waiting for a breakout followed by a higher low, or a breakdown followed by a lower high (with the right patterns and volume confirmation of course), aligned with Gann squares in time and price, and in line with commodity and currency movements. Then I’ll look to set up a range of strategies to take advantage of the market conditions in different time frames…

The closest pattern I could find that was like this is the May 1999 low to the July 1999 high. Here the consolidation resolved to the upside from this kind of up angling consolidation which effectively gave a set of small higher lows and provided a base to retest the April 1999 High. Then the bullish drive failed, and the Index retested the low and exceeded it resulting in the October 1999 low. Perhaps this is potentially the pattern the index may follow broadly speaking now?

My technical view though is that this pattern could well be the precursor for a major test down since this current consolidation seems to be angling up slightly (gives a bearish probability under a lower double top), and yesterday was 90 calendar days from high, and failed… and 22 calendar days from the 17/07/06 low. We currently have a lower high in place in this little consolidation. The invalidation of this view would be if the 31/07/06 high can be exceeded and held, I’d then be looking to the long side, but would look to take profits near the May 06 major high.

Until this is resolved, I’m staying right out since this kind of “arm wrestle” may explode up or down fast. I’m not sure what copper is doing – certainly not blowing off upwards like before… but there could be supply problems (BHP scenario) - Oil is still looking very bullish, rates are up, and inflation levels have been moving upwards too… US has paused its rate rise – weaker economy??? These factors may have a profound effect over the next 3 months…

There is also a view that the Australian market will chop sideways for a while now too, so we could just see the XAO/XJO range trade for a while. This is also a possibility.

So, when it comes to “live trades” – position traders are probably likely to be on the sidelines like me if they’re directional traders, or be trading sideways options strategies with perhaps butterflies of condors, or maybe bull puts or bear calls currently… or maybe a ratio back spread if convinced of a major move… hard to say, and the time frame is likely to be much longer than a couple of days – depends if you’re swing trading, or longer term…



Regards


Magdoran

 

[professor_frink]

hehe Frink thanks for the advice mate but i havent been over trading. Just i hadnt traded the A200 since 5 days ago and i got a little itchy. But i have made over $1500 during that time on other trades (shares/oil/gold/FX).

That's good mate. It's always something to keep in the back of your mind

But i do agree with you beating young kids at monopoly is by far the best satisfaction hehe.

ha!!

 

[Sensei]

Sensei,
Please can you call one of your trades LIVE
Or if you wish call the trade before it happens
As this trade was called today...Buy Support etc

Bronte don't take it personally .... it is questioning the method and system not the individual. And also to educate myself and others who may not be inclined to question (espec newbies who do read this thread) on the bonefide of the posts.

From the comments I got the impression it was thought to be a good trade ... I thought it was a "got out by the skin of my teeth" trade! Maybe I mis-read it, but the questions still needs to be asked and more importantly answered.

Maybe what has to be realised by (especially new) SPI traders is not to follow blindly the comments spouted as gospel by proponents of such systems(with all due respects to Messrs Gann, Elliott and other soothsayers).

PS ... this will stir the hornets nest but a civil discussion is a good discussion.