Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Trading the Brexit, anyone?

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cogs said:
Monday gaps should be ones to watch, expect something out of the ordinary. I doubt whether it will be all absorbed by then.
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Results will be known before then. Probably by our tomorrow afternoon so the Northern Hemisphere will react tomorrow night. Yeah probably gaps on Monday too. The media and brokers are calling for high to extreme volatility so I suppose that it will have to be so.
 
Might be a non event if Britain remains in the EU.

The markets will come up with "already been factored in."
 
CanOz said:
Something Strange Emerges When Looking Behind The "Brexit" Bookie Odds

Another reason the bookies might not be the ones to guess the correct result this time....
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I read that but I am not sure what conclusion to draw... the majority of punters are not exactly informed gamblers. Plus their gambling action may not actually be how they are going to vote. And lastly, those who choose to gamble on this may not be representative of the voting public anyway.

Perhaps the random punters are attracted to the high payout (up to 3 to 1) for the leave camp.

On the notion of average bet size... the discrepancy of bet size is probably more related to the discrepancy in payout ratio rather than what Zerohedge is suggesting about rich manipulating the bookies.

It's hard to say in isolation... but similar bets breakdown for a sports event, where you have a short odds favourite vs long odds underdog, might reveal whether the Brexit bet size differences are actually normal.
 
The betting markets are relatively small compared to financial markets. If I were a large fund, I would load up on long risk positions, and then splash some money into the betting markets to reprice the odds. This causes market to reprice brexit risk and I can unload my positions for an easy profit. This is a nice easy way to manipulate the market without a big outlay :)
 
relval said:
The betting markets are relatively small compared to financial markets. If I were a large fund, I would load up on long risk positions, and then splash some money into the betting markets to reprice the odds. This causes market to reprice brexit risk and I can unload my positions for an easy profit. This is a nice easy way to manipulate the market without a big outlay :)
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Get a large network of people to lie on their phone surveys and vote the other way tomorrow.
Position for that 'surprise' accordingly

Flee country when someone spills the beans months later
 
There might be a trade on the two announced results, the first survey result and then the referendum result...depending on what happens after the former....
 
I thought there is only one clear play, shorting treasuries/bonds. Whether it be the GBL, JGB or ZB.

They are either already at negative yield or historical lows. You will either lose a bit or win a lot...
 
hamli said:
I thought there is only one clear play, shorting treasuries/bonds. Whether it be the GBL, JGB or ZB.

They are either already at negative yield or historical lows. You will either lose a bit or win a lot...
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So why not gilts?
 
I just want to try and short everything, the stay vote is priced in and I would love to be short a exit vote.

I have put it on my list to investigate options as a way acting on the impluses.

Think ill be sitting on my hands tonight as I really have no idea
 
skyQuake said:
Get a large network of people to lie on their phone surveys and vote the other way tomorrow.
Position for that 'surprise' accordingly

Flee country when someone spills the beans months later
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Perhaps cheaper and simpler to just bribe or establish your own survey company.

Still might need to flee the country afterwards...

ThingyMajiggy said:
Even the DAX is playing out the WTF pattern :D
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Lol.
 
fiftyeight said:
I just want to try and short everything, the stay vote is priced in and I would love to be short a exit vote.
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You are probably right. But may be there are money sitting on the sideline waiting to commit on the confirmation of the Remain vote? :confused:

Anyhow... tonight feels like waiting for a full moon eclipse or Halley's comet or something. It feels like a calm spectacle and I can't really feel any tension in the market.

Or may be I am just not in tune enough.
 
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