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- 21 April 2005
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Thinking more on this big/round number thing:
The SPI turned at 6401. But the SPI is a derivitive of the SP200 cash index which did not get to 6400 or a BIG number... Neither did the all-ords. So why does the SPI count as a big number but not the Actual cash indices?
Why would the index turn at a big number anyway? Do all these people with NAB, BHP and WPL think "Oh crap! The SPI has hit 6400... better sell now!"?
I can see the psychology in an individual name like "I'm holding Google till $400" and enough people thinking the same, But I still don't see it often enough, or significant enough to really take that much notice.
Why wasn't 1,500 resistance on the SP500? That's a nice round number? Why didn,t nasdaq stop at 2,500? I could pull up many more examples where BIG number mean nothing.
Wayne,
Like most analysis it could be coincidence of the convenient. A bit like triangles and fibonacci etc.
Statistical testing would be most revealing.