Top Daily Stocks - Possibles, Probables and Fakers...

[barney]

Hi @TortoiseTrader …… No rules on holding times .... Its always discretionary for me because I generally accumulate my positions over time.

Ideally, if the Chart behaviour is consistent with my fundamental research I'll be happy to hold something indefinitely ……… (PNR is a perfect example)

On the flip side, if something starts to not look or feel right, I'll drop some of it, or maybe all of it, like a hot potato .... An example of that was AEB trade January this year …

I took a small position … sold half a day later and the rest 6 days later ……

I was fortunate enough to bank 90% profit in a few days, but the best part of the trade was making a correct exit decision.

My timing was far from perfect but still tidy (If I'd held for 4 more days it would have basically turned into a scratch trade

PS Show me a trader with perfect timing and I'll show you someone who tells porkies

 

[barney]

Todays Risers … Comments on ASN and BLT on Threads

 

[barney]

Todays Risers …. JHL was the standout mover … @tech/a had a watch on this one ...see thread.

 

[Craton]

Thank you Barney for this undertaking, certainly appreciate your effort and more so, for sharing that 100k + loss will all and sundry. That would have been a very sour, bitter pill to swallow and harder still to admit and accept defeat and move on.

I've probably should've asked a long time ago and I certainly don't want to derail in anyway what you are doing just wondering, and the fact that I'm no legal eagle, is it OK that you are posting the Commsec screenshots?
I ask because I've erred on the side of caution in posting anything from there (or others) in case I get a cease and desist notice. If all is above board then I'd certainly expect more of us to post up as well.
Thanks.

 

[Country Lad]

C, I doubt that it would be a great concern to Commsec, their stuff is copied to forums all over the place. Let's face it the information itself is in the public domain and anybody not using Commsec would not recognise it as being theirs. Your concern may be more one of attribution so unless your agreement with Commsec specifically precludes publishing the data, simply specifiy the data is from Commsec. They may appreciate the exposure.

Or publish it in a different format. I have in the past simply dumped the data from my Iress into a spreadsheet and copied it here, after all it is in the public domain. Such as the movers in the All Ords at the moment:

 

[Craton]

Noted and appreciate the comments Country Lad. Not that I have any special arrangement but certainly agree attributing the data sets as from Commsec would cover my sorry butt.

Haha, yeah the CommBank does need some positive light.

 

[barney]

Thank you Barney for this undertaking, certainly appreciate your effort and more so, for sharing that 100k + loss will all and sundry. That would have been a very sour, bitter pill to swallow and harder still to admit and accept defeat and move on.

I've probably should've asked a long time ago and I certainly don't want to derail in anyway what you are doing just wondering, and the fact that I'm no legal eagle, is it OK that you are posting the Commsec screenshots?
I ask because I've erred on the side of caution in posting anything from there (or others) in case I get a cease and desist notice. If all is above board then I'd certainly expect more of us to post up as well.
Thanks.

Thanks for the reply @Craton
I had never crossed my mind that I could in copyright breach to be honest I'll start putting a disclaimer or something on future posts to "advertise" CommSec as suggested by @Country Lad … Thanks for the heads up

As for the $100K loss ….. It took some coming to terms with for sure … Telling my wife at the time was tough ….. but she forgave me (what a woman)

After the loss and many years of struggling with learning a trading method which suited me personally, I had the pleasure of informing my wife a while back that the $100K had been re-couped …… with interest ….. I've had a fortunate last 3 trading years but never take the market for granted as it can chew you up very quickly if you get complacent ….. Cheers and good trading

 

[barney]

As suggested by the boys above …

Quick disclaimer that the screenshots of the Top Rising Stocks etc I post on this thread are taken from the Commsec webpage.

For anyone interested in opening a CommSec trading account follow the link below for more information. (that should get me off the hook for any copyright problems)
https://www.commsec.com.au/accounts/share-trading.html

Todays Risers … couple to have a quick squiz at later …..Footy is on

 

[barney]

Yesterday's big mover TV2 came out of its trading halt and down 21% to 0.011 today

SYA was todays only big mover worth noting. Couple of other minnows to maybe have a look at.

 

[barney]

Update ….. I basically started this thread as an exercise to give one aspect of how to look for potential future trades in an attempt to generate some more discussion on the Stock threads … (Bear in mind I am trading Spec Stocks)

Nothing has changed in that sense, but as we will have all noticed, trading a Stock based on a sudden daily price spike often means

1) you have probably missed the boat for this move and should have been in earlier, or ….

2) Its a random spike/pump and dump/who knows why rise, with no substance that we can ascertain with any certainty … or

3) (What I am looking for) … Its the start, or early in the price cycle of an undervalued Stock which has both fundamental and technical reasons why it should be followed in the short/medium term

Therefore …. for the benefit of any ASF subscribers who are interested in trading Spec plays …… lets try and fine tune the objective of the thread by trying to see if we can spot Spec Stocks which might be potentially ready to move at sometime in the future …. this can be anywhere from a few days to a few months.

@greggles has been prolific in recent times with posting both technical and fundamental reasons why some Stocks might be on the move … so I will try and fine tune (as much as time permits) which Spec Stocks I might personally be interested in based on a combination of current and potential future price action ….. (Often there will be none, and often I will be doing some real work and wont have time)

The objective is still to generate more interest in some of the individual Stock threads but to try and expose any potential value before the share price spikes …..

Of course, if we could all regularly pick undervalued Specs at their bottoms, we would all be retired in the Bahamas …… I'm not retired in the Bahamas, so please temper anything I say with a healthy does of your own personal research … Cheers

 

[greggles]

3) (What I am looking for) … Its the start, or early in the price cycle of an undervalued Stock which has both fundamental and technical reasons why it should be followed in the short/medium term

Therefore …. for the benefit of any ASF subscribers who are interested in trading Spec plays …… lets try and fine tune the objective of the thread by trying to see if we can spot Spec Stocks which might be potentially ready to move at sometime in the future …. this can be anywhere from a few days to a few months.

Am looking forward to your thoughts and insights barney.

 

[barney]

Am looking forward to your thoughts and insights barney.

Cheers Greg.

Obviously Spec trading is not for everyone. I generally trade Miners and lean towards Goldies. My decisions are very discretionary but I have a few rules of thumb which I follow …..

1) Check the Market Cap relative to their Cash position. If I find something with a really low MC but with a reasonable amount of Cash, its an immediate research project

2) If 1) looks ok … Check the quality of the Projects the Co. has onboard. How advanced their drilling etc is; Grades and size/potential size of resource

3) News flow on Project status ---- Good communication --- Upcoming assays etc

4) Management …. Quality Directors can make a huge difference

5) Do Directors have their own cash invested --- builds confidence

6) Charts --- I like extended periods of sideways price action with signs of accumulation etc at the lows

Various other discretionary bits and pieces but that's basically it. If I find Specs which fit the bulk of the above criteria, I'll generally try and accumulate over a period of time with about a quarter or third size position taken each trade depending on how it looks and what price I can get in at each time.

VML came up today as a High Volume Stock as opposed to a Riser stock. To get in early before moves, Volume can obviously be used as a Leading indicator.

After some research I have placed an order on market for the Open tomorrow …. I'll post my thoughts on the VML thread.

 

[greggles]

1) Check the Market Cap relative to their Cash position. If I find something with a really low MC but with a reasonable amount of Cash, its an immediate research project

Agree with you here. 99 times out of 100 I will avoid stocks with a capital raising on the short term horizon. The placement price will almost always be at a discount and I dislike too much dilution and the inherent risk associated with capital raisings.

2) If 1) looks ok … Check the quality of the Projects the Co. has onboard. How advanced their drilling etc is; Grades and size/potential size of resource

Location and nearology are important factors. Who is mining nearby and what success are they having? Has there been any historical mining? What have previous assays been like? (i.e. grades, depth, width)

3) News flow on Project status ---- Good communication --- Upcoming assays etc

I like news flow but there needs to be a level of confidence with it, as it can turn against you. There's nothing worse than being on board when disappointing assay results are released. That's why I almost never get in early. I want to make sure that the company is really onto something before I get involved.

4) Management …. Quality Directors can make a huge difference

Agree. Experience and prior success counts for a lot.

5) Do Directors have their own cash invested --- builds confidence

Definitely helps with the confidence factor. I will tend to avoid companies where directors are just ring-ins with no personal financial stake in the company. Having their own money on the line tends to sharpen their decision making.

6) Charts --- I like extended periods of sideways price action with signs of accumulation etc at the lows

Agree. Consolidation with accumulation at or near the lows gives me confidence that others are seeing what I'm seeing and that there is a "floor" price that sees buyers come in and load up. It's all about minimising risk as much as possible and maximising the upside.

 

[tech/a]

Interesting looking at different views.
VML would not be on my watchlist.

When looking at biggest movers I tend to look at those moving on volume but not a great deal on range.
Have a look at BID slipping past most.
I don't want it to be so far gone I'm going to be feeding supply!
Id also want lower timeframe charts if I was to trade it. 30 min
Ill see if I can get some for a look.(for BID).

 

[barney]

Thanks for your thoughts Greg and Tech; good to have some input …..

In all honesty I would have normally waited with VML but its a good example of getting in early so it hopefully gives the analysis more credibility whether the trade becomes successful or fails …

It is a bit of a punt at this stage but the size of my trade reflects that …. That is the benefit of accumulation rather than being all in

To confirm .... My order was filled at the Open …. and now with these types of trades you generally sit round and watch paint dry for a week or two

 

[barney]

Have taken another position in one of last week's Top Risers in SL1 (Symbol Mining)

Buying on the dip of the original first spike which had no follow through, so could be classified as attempting to get in early …. maybe classified by some as "madness"

Still only smallish accumulation trades so no stop loss is considered unless something changes fundamentally. More comment on SL1 thread.

 

[barney]

Todays Top Risers from the Commsec website …

 

[barney]

Todays Volume Risers … A couple which are also substantial Price Risers ….. research!

 

[barney]

July 18 Top Risers and Volume Risers Cheers.

CVN is the obvious one to follow from todays action ….. Oiler who had some good news on their current drilling campaign …. Looks like the oil field could be a big producer … watchlist!

 

[barney]

Todays Price/Volume Risers …. Oiler CVN continued its rise … The oil discovery has been well appreciated by the market …