Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Greetings --

Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow."

Thanks Howard, looking forward to my bed time read.

There are some of us that sit in the darkness of this site, absorbing information and appreciate all the long time posters and their varied opinions.

ML does seem well beyond the minds of many, but I for one, like to have an understanding of all types of trading without having the need to be an expert in them all.

Please keep on posting.
 
Tech/a clearly you glossed over my last post

Well its of course subjective but a good example is in the SMSF thread https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/smsf-returns.25070/page-2

Craft posted that his 9 year CAGR for his super fund was 34.4%. Now admittedly the post was in 2013 but I am sure if you asked Craft for an update on his SMSF it would still be powering along.

Is that not clear enough evidence for you? Do you need to see the accounts for Crafts SMSF before you believe it?

As for making 25%+ returns every single year no fundamental investor in the world will achieve that over the long term because returns from fundamental investing are lumpy and inconsistent by their nature. But there are definitely fundamental investors who can get a CAGR north of 25% over a long period of time as I proved above.
 
For what its worth here was Buffetts take on algo/quant strategies.

“In my opinion, investment success will not be produced by arcane formulas, computer programs or signals flashed by the price behaviour of stocks and markets,” that is what he wrote in his 1987 annual letter.
 
Didn't buffet admit to missing the tech run altogether because he didn't know how to value those businesses?
 
For what its worth here was Buffetts take on algo/quant strategies.

“In my opinion, investment success will not be produced by arcane formulas, computer programs or signals flashed by the price behaviour of stocks and markets,” that is what he wrote in his 1987 annual letter.

Nope, his idea instead was to buy $1 billion worth or 6.2% of Coca Cola and get himself on the board and a few years later get his son Howard on there too.
I can see all the fundies on here replicating that sort of influential impact on their holdings :D
 
Forums pffft who needs em really , the progressive thinkers that might contribute here are drowned out by opinionated dinosaurs . This whole FA v TA v Quant thing isn't an issue , they ALL work to a degree and a hybrid of all is the grail , so many crippled by closed minds . Its not the tools you use , its the skillset you bring to the game , never forget that . Although sharp tools obviously help ... Words are wasted in these places much of the time , people are more interested in cutting down new and exciting theories/methods . its easier than learning something new . The political/general threads are a prime example of the lack of critical thinking in this world . Easier to be in a " team " than innovate . I'm glad what I do is difficult , sheep are easy to slaughter .. 5% of the people make 99% of the money ( something like that ) BE the 5% !!!!!! sharpen your tools / make new tools / be open to new , innovative tools


There I've said my piece !

If you are not progressive your dead
 
Not the most relevant analogy....python is free, amibroker is at least $250.00 US
Its not the cost of the software , its the time learning to drive .. as you know 250 bucks is NOTHING in the big picture . The ability to code competently is worth 100's of thousands of dollars ..
 
Its not the cost of the software , its the time learning to drive .. as you know 250 bucks is NOTHING in the big picture . The ability to code competently is worth 100's of thousands of dollars ..
The ability to code competently for 100"s of thousand dollars would mean the 'coder' is best of 100's to 1000's of applicants. Then coding a winning trading strategy and eating the retailers lunch (thread context) would be the ultimate goal. Computer language = money tree? The market balances these things out.
 
Bit like Mr Bandy I give up . Coding is the biggest money on the planet , end of story . 4 largest cap publically traded companies on planet . 2 100% code driven and the other 2 not far of it , what else needs to be said . Give it a short amount of time and it will be 5 with FB closing in on top 5 .... Coding has no future apparently , well if you listen to dinosaurs ... pffffft



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" If your not progressive your dead "
 
This whole FA v TA v Quant thing isn't an issue , they ALL work to a degree and a hybrid of all is the grail , so many crippled by closed minds .
Great encouragement to jump on the tradmill and grind out hours of exploration and research with traditional tools/indicators. Nothing is new in this thread.
Its not the tools you use , its the skillset you bring to the game , never forget that . Although sharp tools obviously help ... Words are wasted in these places much of the time , people are more interested in cutting down new and exciting theories/methods
Myself and it appears others have simply asked for evidence/examples/results from the thread start yet to use the common reply, we are missing the point, what a joke.

You got something eating retailers lunch or still on the treadmill?
 
Great encouragement to jump on the tradmill and grind out hours of exploration and research with traditional tools/indicators. Nothing is new in this thread.
Myself and it appears others have simply asked for evidence/examples/results from the thread start yet to use the common reply, we are missing the point, what a joke.

You got something eating retailers lunch or still on the treadmill?

You ARE missing the point !!!

Spend the time, run the math, build the system, test it, refine it, learn it then come to your own conclusions. Howard has laid the foundation that you can follow in Python if you choose. He has written books with the code already there for you to plunder.

If that's too hard take the easy route, google and Youtube, i just did both and got a bucketload of hits with code already there. I know for a fact that Github has the source for many ML trading applications based on Pythons scikit. You actually don't need to program anything, just put in some effort to investigate ( aka copy and paste ) and draw your own conclusions.

or don't, It's entirely up to you.

BUT ... Nobody is obliged to give you evidence/examples/results.
 
You ARE missing the point !!!

Spend the time, run the math, build the system, test it, refine it, learn it then come to your own conclusions.
I tested systems from 2009 to 2015 so I am off the much encouraged treadmill now. Thanks for the advice.
I was enquiring about anything I may not know about.
 
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BUT ... Nobody is obliged to give you evidence/examples/results.
Its ironic , people act like Rsoles and then demand proof . I'd be willing to share some evidence but never under duress/demand . I took 5 years to get here , I aint handing it out like candy to help convince the unconvincable ... the curve fitting/datamining accusations id have to fight of , the 2 and froing to actually try and help someone while getting sand kicked in face with next to zero chance of any recognition even if I proved my point . ASF isn't a very progressive place unfortunately . WHY would anyone do that , the only person I have to convince anything works is me . Howard has tried and he does have a slight agenda being an educator but he isn't selling snake oil , He is a very very intelligent man and the main reason I ever came here and id suggest he may have been driven away .. go figure , the dinosaurs know better and yield big sticks :roflmao: WHY
 
I take it you didn't find what you were looking for then ?
No but I did come to a better understanding of the market place including company news effects, other companies buying/selling, sentiment, zones of interest, precise support/resistance, deliberate price spikes up or down, fading/exiting on such spikes, going with the trend, consolidation patterns (and the time in such), position sizing, patience and fast exits when necessary.
 
1--- try and help someone while getting sand kicked in face with next to zero chance of any recognition even if I proved my point .
2---the only person I have to convince anything works is me .

1--- A lot of people do that here. It is hard though, when you think about what we're trying to do - compete for trading profits. I'm quite confident you wouldn't share anything that can be used profitably by someone posting on a public forum, and nor would I. Howard's not going to be any different. A common tactic is to scoff and mock anything one thinks might be useful, but where the OP hasn't given enough details for the attacker to profit from it. The OP then feels obliged to back up his argument and share more, because if he doesn't he appears to have backed down from the argument and made to look silly. So the tactic does have some power, but it won't work on those who are above the need for recognition. Forums have limited usefulness if competition is the dominant meme. Are we really competing against other traders, or just our own minds?

2--- you know that's not true. Your first statement contradicts it.
 
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GB

Open your eyes

You've learned nothing from Petes stuff?
Over 100 charts in charts of interest that have fleshed out some rippers.
plenty for a discretionary trader.

if you can't learn from the above you've got no hope with Howard's stuff.
Your not his target market anyway.
 
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