TON - Triton Minerals

[noirua]

Re: TON - Triton Gold

There is a lot of discussion on Windarra Tailings project and it is very topical at present, however, my reasoning for investing in TON was due to the potentially large scale projects. One of these is Salmon Gums which they are currently drilling ...... and i'm very keenly awaiting drilling results. If you read announcements relating to this project, the initial gold in soil levels at a number of prospects at Salmon Gums are significantly better than those gained at the 5M ounce Tropicana gold resource in the same region. I find it difficult not to get very excited about that project alone!!!

Australian Mineral Fields (including Salmon Gums, Fraser Range North)
http://clients.westminster-digital.co.uk/minesite/microsite/events/39/pdf/Australian.pdf

 

[condog]

Re: TON - Triton Gold

Have been away this weekend and just caught up on the good discussion. Good initiative Condog to contact management for some info and see what they are expecting. However, none of us will have to wait long before the scopying study should be released.
There is a lot of discussion on Windarra Tailings project and it is very topical at present, however, my reasoning for investing in TON was due to the potentially large scale projects. One of these is Salmon Gums which they are currently drilling ...... and i'm very keenly awaiting drilling results. If you read announcements relating to this project, the initial gold in soil levels at a number of prospects at Salmon Gums are significantly better than those gained at the 5M ounce Tropicana gold resource in the same region. I find it difficult not to get very excited about that project alone!!!

Totally agree, but some scepticism has been expressed in here about commercial viability of Windarra....so its just triggered some discussion....

To me TON is exiting for these reasons in value order:
- Albanny Fraser Prospects potentially insane 5M oz plus.... this is rediculous and unfathomable, but man i will take it if its there....can you imagine a $18m market cap discovering a 5M oz resource.....the ASX would have a fit......... not implied, just discussing.....I think its unlikely, but it is an outside possibility...
- High grade find at Sunday with 4m at 16g +, and 1m at 78g + at around 100m deep..with further drilling currently underway partially funded by WA govt....also has potential to be insane if this high grade is located elsewhere....further exploration needed.......
- Windarra Tailings up to 130,000 ounces, but likely 65000+ to provide near term cash flow possibly by early Arpil 2010, with cash flow targeted at accellerated and further exploration of Yilgarn and albany Fraser....
-Possible Tushtena JV in Alaska....biggere then windarra, but needs JV or time to proceeed...

Then reasons I liked it for imminent value..... two drilling programs underway in potentially large resources in high grade areas, with initial results possible any time from now, .... Windarra good chance to provide near term cash with announcment by feb and possible targeted production by April....

Even without Windarra its an exciting prospect with very good upside potential....but I definitely like Windarra for near term cash flow reasons....IMO cash flow in these types of ventures is like putting a rocket under the company....and its sp...and if Windarra is capable of doing that in the very near term, then Windarra becomes a key trigger to even more percieved or real value..........

Even without Windarra upside is exciting, but even the company itself say it is a "core focus" becasue it represents "near term cash flow" as they know its significance to "contribute funds to exploration"....

So some very exciting prospects in the near term..... and yep as you say Paul the big plays are in Albany , Sunday and Tushtena, but tailings cash has potential to accellerate it all...

This is all opinion , may be wrong so DYOR and seek expert advice....no increase in sp is indicated or implied....risks are high and outcomes are uncertain....

 

[condog]

Re: TON - Triton Gold

I just ran more calcs on TON, HEG and a few other miners....

Currently TON has two acitve drilling programs in highly prospective areas with significant gold indocators .... and yet at $25 per prospective oz it has only 220,000 oz allowed for in its current price....

Given they are totally prospective and non JORC even at $12.50 per potential oz it only has 440,000 oz factored in.....in total that is....

Given Windarra has 113000-130000 but say with 50% recovery = 56500 oz already, thats only got 163500 prospective oz's factored in for the entire other three projects....

So given that sunday has already found 1m at 78g/t+ and 1m at 1.3g/t 100m away this means that the Albany Fraser and any possible Tushtena JV in Alaska is priced in at less then 100,000 oz's

With the Tropicanna so close at 4Moz thats a stange pricing of TON.... one has to start thinking perhaps this ones flying under the radar somewhat.....

Even if Windarra was canned it would slow exploration and possible force cap raisings in around 18 months time, but the price would still to me IMO look like its not pricing in anywhere near the potential of these projects....

These assumptions are based on my opinion and prospective oz in high grade fields with proven adjoining finds such as Alabnny Fraser...

Im a mug punter so DYOR , seek independent advice and never act on my posts....

Run a few sums and cross check this with a fe other similar size compatible gold miners....

 

[So_Cynical]

Re: TON - Triton Gold

I just ran more calcs on TON, HEG and a few other miners.

Comparing prospectors burning cash to a junior miner with some production capacity and proven JORC reserves is a silly comparison in my opinion.

Your making alot of assumptions here condog...in my experience an ambitious 2 rig drilling program would burn through 5 mill a year, no problem....also Tropicana is a very big, somewhat low grade deposit (about 2g/t Au) expensive to mine, and very expensive to develop and very hard to imagine TON has anything better just because there down the road a bit...further south where there tends to be less gold.

I really don't want to be seen as down ramping, just being realistic...last post this thread so good luck to the holders.

 

[condog]

Re: TON - Triton Gold

Comparing prospectors burning cash to a junior miner with some production capacity and proven JORC reserves is a silly comparison in my opinion.

Its not silly IMO, as its the only way to value these minows......and that calculated comparison makes me a lot of money ....so im incredibly happpy to be making these comparisons and calculations....I apply big margins of safety for error and discount probable results.... Making calculations and comparisons is a major part of reducing risk here.... And to compare two explorers is pointless ...it would indicate which is cheaper....but it would give no indication of how many oz of JORC or otherwise are factored in......

So the only way to get a handle on how much downside risk is actually to compare to a few companies that are just slightly further along the maturity curve..... that weigh you have something more tangible to value it against.... And your less mature company must carry a lower value that reflects a discount for hurdles not yet over come...

Your making alot of assumptions here condog..

Yes thats what you must do when they are in this phase of development... if you always waited itll its confirmed JORC for everything and contracted farm ins or production figures....your missing out on the best part of the growth....ITs much higher risk earlier on, which is why so much research is critical....as you have to get enough indicators of likely success, confirmed findings ets to be ata comfortable risk v reward ratio.....

To me the most rapid growth in most listed companies is when they make a change..... that can be drilling results, approvals, farm in agreements, cap raising for producion...JV's etc.....its these circumstance changes where the most profit is made.....it carries a lot of risk, but much of the risk can be idnetified, factored in and calculated with probabilties and margins of safety.....

A key part of this type of investing is not simply jumping on casue some ones got a tennement or is doing a drilling program....your after far more reassurance then that.....PRevious posts in here ouline why this company and its prospects are very exciting....

in my experience an ambitious 2 rig drilling program would burn through 5 mill a year, no problem..

Yes thats why they raised so much capital...to fund an ambitios drilling program in a high grade, high probability area....One of the major attractions about this company is other people have been dilluted for the exploration costs and investors now can come in and pick off some of the results...while having exposrue and leverage to potentially massive upside risks.....

..also Tropicana is a very big, somewhat low grade deposit (about 2g/t Au) expensive to mine, and very expensive to develop and very hard to imagine TON has anything better just because there down the road a bit...further south where there tends to be less gold.

Point taken it would be nice to have higher then 2g/t, but where tropicana will come out trumps is on sheer volume and economies of scale...

..I really don't want to be seen as down ramping, just being realistic...last post this thread so good luck to the holders.

No harm in cross questioning with good information, its a healthy process, its only if its done without information and intellectual oomph that I take offence....No offence taken here....and none intended...The best type of criticism to these comparisons though is to provide an alternate set of calculations for punters to examine.....and make comparisons of there own....

To conclude its through doing these calcs over and over again that you can identify a company undergoing change that has possible huge upside and then alleviate some risk concerns, by knowing your upside and likely downside.....

IMO TON for me as an investor met that criteria, it is in a phase with IMO highly possible company altering changes that may happen......yet almost none of that possible change or its probability is priced in.....on the flip side even if results where slow and not positive enough, because little to no upside is built in....its unlikely the downside risks are too big or rapid.... (Definitely DYOR on this - as I have strategies and knowledge to ensure part of this - on is knowing what results to sell on)

Allways DYOR, seek expert advice and never act on my information.. Ive been wrong before and will be wrong again....

 

[Miner]

Re: TON - Triton Gold

Comparing prospectors burning cash to a junior miner with some production capacity and proven JORC reserves is a silly comparison in my opinion.

xxxx
I really don't want to be seen as down ramping, just being realistic...last post this thread so good luck to the holders.

Hey So Cynical

Be a cynical but do not stop your contribution to this thread. Why las post to TON thread ?

Come on mate - something is going wrong in ASF off late.

I have noticed lot of quality and regular contributors are not posting any more. Only few left. If it goes this way, ASF will take high time to bring back to its coveted position.

My interest to see ASF is effective for all of us so IT will be really nice (even you are a bit grumpy for the moment?) that remain a contributor to TON like other threads.

 

[condog]

Re: TON - Triton Gold

Drilling announced 11th Dec should be progressing well and announcments should begin flowing soon... particularly on the Sunday drilling which is only 600m....

These two quotes are from the announcment 11th Dec 09

A 10,000m aircore drill program is underway at the Company’s Salmon Gums project (100%), located in the prospective Albany-Fraser Province. The program will test a number of large-scale coherent soil gold anomalies on the project.

At the Sunday project, Triton Gold commenced a 600m diamond drill program (3 holes) to test the structural and alteration characteristics of the zone from which the high grade intersection of 1m @ 78.97g/t gold was returned.

 

[AussiePaul72]

Re: TON - Triton Gold

Drilling announced 11th Dec should be progressing well and announcments should begin flowing soon... particularly on the Sunday drilling which is only 600m....

These two quotes are from the announcment 11th Dec 09

Hi Condog ..... yes i wouldn't be surprised to see increased interest in TON as we approach the release of drilling results from both the Sunday project and the Salmon Gums project. Management stated in one of the press releases that they are expecting results to be released in February

 

[condog]

Re: TON - Triton Gold

Hi Condog ..... yes i wouldn't be surprised to see increased interest in TON as we approach the release of drilling results from both the Sunday project and the Salmon Gums project. Management stated in one of the press releases that they are expecting results to be released in February

Hey Paul, there was definitely some interest yesterday.....much bigger volumes and just prior 4pm hardly any sells on deck.........
Good to very good buying pressure for a small and little traded stock....and unlike a few others seems to be very tightly held....
The big end of town would have difficulty getting into this one, even if they wanted to...

 

[AussiePaul72]

Re: TON - Triton Gold

Hey Paul, there was definitely some interest yesterday.....much bigger volumes and just prior 4pm hardly any sells on deck.........
Good to very good buying pressure for a small and little traded stock....and unlike a few others seems to be very tightly held....
The big end of town would have difficulty getting into this one, even if they wanted to...

Hey Condog ..... yes there definitely seems to be some stirring happening lately. Today the oppies were up over 30% on larger than normal volume together with some significant buy orders sitting there! Yesterday the options closed at 6.1c and today after today there are over 600,000 in buy orders at 6.5c or greater with a single order of 350,000 sitting at 6.9c.

Larger volume traded on the ordinary securities today aswell. Sellers are starting to thin and i think once the sp takes out the 22.5c barrier it may go on a run.

I wonder what todays interest is related to! It could be a number of things:
* Release of the scoping study for Windarra
* Current drilling related to the Salmon Gums project
* Current drilling related to the Sunday project

Positive news on any one of these could see a re-rating of TON's $17M market cap.

These are my thoughts only ..... DYOR

 

[condog]

Re: TON - Triton Gold

Hey Condog ..... yes there definitely seems to be some stirring happening lately. Today the oppies were up over 30% on larger than normal volume together with some significant buy orders sitting there! Yesterday the options closed at 6.1c and today after today there are over 600,000 in buy orders at 6.5c or greater with a single order of 350,000 sitting at 6.9c.

Larger volume traded on the ordinary securities today aswell. Sellers are starting to thin and i think once the sp takes out the 22.5c barrier it may go on a run.

I wonder what todays interest is related to! It could be a number of things:
* Release of the scoping study for Windarra
* Current drilling related to the Salmon Gums project
* Current drilling related to the Sunday project

Positive news on any one of these could see a re-rating of TON's $17M market cap.

These are my thoughts only ..... DYOR

Hi Paully et al
Once again Paul you prove to be a wise one, IMO hitting the nail fair and squarely on the head.......

IMO its related to anticipation of all three....but particularly Salmon & Sunday...which I think is what the big players are sniffing....Not long till the word will be out on this one......

I racked up a lot of it this week just in case....

 

[sam76]

Re: TON - Triton Gold

I was the guy lucky enough to get those oppies yesterday.

All i could afford at the time and they were expensive compared to the heads but i had a greater exposure to the stock this way, plus a massive expiration date (dec 2013)

I have no access to market depth in either my trading platforms - I guess it's too small maybe?

anyways, I'll be holding for a little while longer and am happy to be along for the ride.

edit. Forgot to say thanks to you two for your great research.

 

[AussiePaul72]

Re: TON - Triton Gold

I was the guy lucky enough to get those oppies yesterday.

All i could afford at the time and they were expensive compared to the heads but i had a greater exposure to the stock this way, plus a massive expiration date (dec 2013)

I have no access to market depth in either my trading platforms - I guess it's too small maybe?

anyways, I'll be holding for a little while longer and am happy to be along for the ride.

edit. Forgot to say thanks to you two for your great research.

Hi Sam ...... welcome aboard and you did well picked yesterday to pick up oppies around 6c ..... a few bigger players seem to have got wind of TON today and starting to push the price up .... options haven't dipped below 5c which says something about how much perceived long term value is there!

Hi Paully et al
Once again Paul you prove to be a wise one, IMO hitting the nail fair and squarely on the head.......

IMO its related to anticipation of all three....but particularly Salmon & Sunday...which I think is what the big players are sniffing....Not long till the word will be out on this one......

I racked up a lot of it this week just in case....

Yes i think you're right Condog (not about the wise bit LOL ... just try to do my research well) ...... there is a lot of upside to TON and with near term news expected on all 3 projects in Feb i think this is generating increased interest now! Looking forward to see what tomorrows trading brings!

 

[condog]

Re: TON - Triton Gold

Its really weird you know i watched this for a while before researching it and buying and there was virtually no sell volumes at all nearly all the time....

Then when i purchased I had to smash a few prices at once to get them which triggered that flurry last week..... the sellers had complete control and with just one more sell the next one was 0.39c which someone may have been silly enough to bid if it was the only sale.........

Then in came the sellers got to excited and have sell pressurded all the way back down.....to just above its old point....

Theres one thing ive learned in small stock.... never put you sells on till the price is at what you want to sell for , else your just bidding it down, especially if you have big holdings in small companies....

thats my 2c for tonight........see ya in ton tomoz ...hopefully lotza action....

 

[kgee]

Re: TON - Triton Gold

Sometimes i miss the point
it's being fluctuating the last couple of weeks, give or minus 10%
no big rise in volume
scoping study to come + drill results
please explain again why you like this company
I just don't see the differrence between TON and 100 other companies
I'm not saying your wrong but can you dumb it down for me?

 

[kgee]

Re: TON - Triton Gold

Wrong forum to say it on but just posted my 500th time ....hope its not the piece of hay that broke the camels back lol

 

[Miner]

Re: TON - Triton Gold

Wrong forum to say it on but just posted my 500th time ....hope its not the piece of hay that broke the camels back lol

Congratulations Kgee for your 500th posting.

May be now you share your credit card details for all of us to buy chamapagane to celebrate this milestone

 

[condog]

Re: TON - Triton Gold

Sometimes i miss the point
it's being fluctuating the last couple of weeks, give or minus 10%
no big rise in volume
scoping study to come + drill results
please explain again why you like this company
I just don't see the differrence between TON and 100 other companies
I'm not saying your wrong but can you dumb it down for me?

happy 500th

Perhaps ther are 100 others but what i particularly like about this one is;

When if this one rockets I will be gettign the list of 99 of you to invest in LOL

In its absolute simplistic view:
Tiny market cap - considering significant cash in bank - with high leverage to fully funded drilling program in two very high class tenements.
Likely imminent cash flow position from Windarra tailings to fund significnat and accelelrated growth platform...
Likely imminent drilling results and upgrades from both tenements in the very near term...
Enough cash to keep them going for a while...

So IMO probable large and likely outcome in very short space of time...not factored into current price...and probably not likely to be until a result comes in...

 

[kgee]

Re: TON - Triton Gold

Apologies...had a couple too many last night
will be watching upcoming announcements with interest
especially the economics of the windarra tailings project...approx 100,00 oz and .78 g/t

 

[noirua]

Re: TON - Triton Gold

Still holding on to this one as it's difficult to see the eventual value and others may pile in knowing the stock has plenty of plus signals on its various ventures. Gambling that TON is cheap in the odds game and the A$ should weaken further against the greenback.