TMT - Technology Metals Australia

[doogie_goes_off]

My FA:

Assume 21 yr mine life with 16 years of high yielding massive ore based on announcement figures.


Say that very conservatively payback at 4 years of massive ore > product and all the disseminated becomes un-economic.


Margin is $2.50 at the current shitty price (could use a real 2.80 but let’s be super conservative)


And assume 12 average years production at below name plate capacity at say 10,000tpa


=120,000t (X1000 x ~2.2 to get lbs V2O5) x 2.50c margin x {(assume only 16% off offtake forward sold plus 50% of the minimum take on the other two agreements comes good = 0.16 + (0.5x 0.4)} = x 0.36


= 237,600,000 of free income ($US) post payback x0.1 as the indicated ore factor (ie not even counting it as a reserve) = 23,760,000 MC US / number of shares on issue (122,400,000) = 19.4C in $US x Exchange @ 1.25 (worst scenario exchange rate) = 24.25c AUD SP on the basis of that discounted income. Go 8% like you would for an NPV = 22.3c AUD


This is a minimum fundamental value of the company post announcement, albeit that traders will sell in at 23.5c on Tech Analysis as resistance @ 24c. Realistically the Indicated Factor should be a reserve factor of 60% for Probable Reserves as TMT will get these reserves (already 75% confirmed from DFS) and prove the 21+ year life. Taking this into account the SP should be $1.34 AUD fully risk rated at the most conservative levels barring sovereign risk and financing factors.


Anything below 22c post this announcement should have been a buy signal to bank shares with only minimal commodity price downside and incredible reserve and cash flow upside. The share price will never be below 10c again in my humble opinion. This is the premiere new pure Vanadium play in the world, make no mistake, it will make Largo look expensive to run once in steady state.

 

[barney]

Thanks for the update @doogie_goes_off

Been a years since I looked at this one ... amazing the gyrations Specs can take in a short time frame

Could be on the start of the road back.

 

[doogie_goes_off]

Well we pumped through resistance at 24c. Assume there could be a new top 20 holder. Technically risk @ around 30c. Should trade in this range for a bit. Needs a couple of triggers to break out to old highs.

 

[doogie_goes_off]

Now broken through 34c with strong trading. New level and upward flag before a real breakout?? Been a good run over the last 2 months.

 

[doogie_goes_off]

38 getting wiped. Very short supply. Could have a 4 in front of the price today. Good news on development path with a LOM off take for the Iron concentrate LOI from Sino.

 

[barney]

Anything below 22c post this announcement should have been a buy signal state.

Well called back in July Doog ...... I assume you have a big smile on your face today

 

[doogie_goes_off]

Cornerstone investor to come onboard either today or tomorrow (in Trading Halt), should see these projects get built. Get set when you can.

 

[doogie_goes_off]

$20M cap raised @ 37.5c with news flow to come - resource, reserve, metallurgical recoveries and a chance to leverage off RCF (big private equity) to get into production first.

 

[doogie_goes_off]

I don't usually believe in F/A but trend is your friend here IMO. If the upward trend holds (in green) then 47/48c by mid October.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

One of the world’s largest vanadium projects has found itself a potential customer – India’s Delectrik Systems, a fast growing Vanadium Redox Flow Battery (VRFB) manufacturer that sells its battery systems to customers across the US, Australia, Europe and the Middle East.

Technology Metals Australia (ASX: TMT) has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Delectrik Systems for the supply of vanadium products from its Murchison Technology Metals Project in WA.

The MoU is effective for five years and specific volumes are “to be agreed in the next phase of the agreement.”

“This MOU supports TMT’s development plan for the MTMP and the secure supply of high purity vanadium for long duration VRFBs globally,” said Managing Director Ian Prentice.

“The MOU contemplates supporting Delectrik’s VRFB roll out within Australia, demonstrating the significant potential in Australia for VRFB use in a range of applications, from replacing diesel generation at remote mine sites to storing solar energy for EV charging stations,” he added

..... no move today. And will revisit in 5 years?

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Tribeca and Regal Funds Management are pushing for a merger of the joint owners of an undeveloped vanadium deposit in Western Australia to take advantage of billions of dollars being poured into critical minerals.

Technology Metals Australia and Australian Vanadium jointly own the Murchison Technology Metals Project, a high-purity vanadium resource 50 kilometres southeast of Meekatharra in WA’s mid-West. Technology Metals says it can meet 6 per cent of world demand for the metal, production.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Consolidation has kicked off in the vanadium sector, with two WA explorers agreeing to a $217 million all-paper merger. The merger is driven by the desire for single ownership of the same highly prospective orebody and the goal of both companies to gain more scale in the eyes of investors.

On Monday, Australian Vanadium (ASX:AVL) and Technology Metals Australia (ASX:TMT) finalised a deal to bring together their adjoining flagship projects near Meekatharra in the State's Mid-West region. AVL will lead the merger, acquiring TMT in a deal that offers 12 of its shares for every TMT share held. This puts the paper price at just over 32 cents for TMT shares, compared to the 27 cent close last Friday.

If the merger proceeds, RCF, the major shareholder in TMT (and the largest shareholder in AVL), has committed to subscribing $15 million to an institutional placement, totaling $20 million.

In their statements to the ASX on Monday, the two companies said, "the consolidation of two adjoining projects across one orebody provides a unique opportunity to realise operational and corporate synergies by creating a single integrated project. The combined group will become the leading Australian vanadium developer with a world-class asset of scale, located in a Tier-1 mining jurisdiction."

AVL CEO Graham Arvidson stated, “The combination of Australian Vanadium and Technology Metals Australia is transformational for both companies and marks a significant milestone in both management teams’ efforts to develop their respective projects." He added that the merger would unlock material synergies for both sets of shareholders, making AVL the leading force in the Australian vanadium sector.

TMT CEO Ian Prentice welcomed the consolidation of the Gabanintha vanadium orebody in WA, describing it as "arguably one of the best undeveloped vanadium resources in the world."

Apart from these broad reasons for the deal, the two companies anticipate synergies in exploration, feasibility, and development work on the orebody, promising a 25-year mine life and the highest-grade Australian vanadium project. They also foresee better opportunities for resource expansion, improved terms from suppliers and governments, and a potential catalyst for future vanadium flow battery production in Australia.

The merger aims to provide the new company with "increased market relevance, liquidity, and balance sheet" by creating a leading ASX-listed vanadium company with a pro forma market capitalisation of $217 million and pro forma cash of $52.1 million post-completion of the Placement. The combined entity is well-funded for the next phase of project development activities.

 

[System]

On February 2nd, 2024, Technology Metals Australia Limited (TMT) was removed from the ASX's Official List in accordance with Listing Rule 17.11, following implementation of the scheme of arrangement between TMT and its shareholders in connection with the acquisition of all the issued capital in TMT by Australian Vanadium Limited.