TMR - Tamaya Resources

[Trader Paul]

Hi folks,

TMR ... figure next week will reveal some VERY negative sentiment
by traders, with 3 negative cycles slotting into place:

13-18082008 ..... 3 significant cycles to bring more negative news.

01092008 ..... negative spotlight on TMR

02-03092008 ..... minor and positive cycle

05-08092008 ..... 2 minor time cycles, with some positive news

02102008 ..... 2 minor cycles bring TMR into a positive light.

..... and technically, it looks like we may be headed into a V-bottom,
on the TMR chart, too .....

More later

have a great day

paul



=====

 

[N1Spec]

This time last year, TMR was also one of Macquarie Small Cap Funds top 10 holdings.

They have a profitable mining operation, NTA of 16cps, prospective exploration potential, about $30mill in the bank, MC at these price around $60 mill. Go figure....

Perhaps a takeover is on the cards...?

highly doubt a TO is on the cards, the SP doesnt refelect that though. I think you will find its getting hammered because of Iberian. The SP getting smashed is a vote for incompetant managment forking out $100m to buy IBR and doing nothing with it. They really need to make their intentions clear about IBR and do it quick before there is any sign of a recovery.

I for one think this company has alot of potential, a 13,000tpa copper producer and with some cost controls will be quite profitable at current CU prices. They have shown they have made some mistakes with mine design but were quick to fix it... ie. project 3000, now they are on to project 4000 and im confident that too will be achieved.

Cheers

 

[ROE]

Game over man...game over
Cant believe this **** .. how low can it go ...cant it hit zero hahaha

 

[Pager]

I sold all my original stake after the SPP fiasco at 12 cents, but kept the SPP issued shares at 11.5 cents.

In hindsight should have dumped the lot, this stock has been such a huge disappointment, unless a miracle is worked even going back to double figures is a long way away.

And those sophisticated shareholders must be cursing themselves, not to mention the legions of unhappy shareholders not just with the share price but the whole way they handled the SPP and have been running this business.

 

[Aargh!]

I hung on to this one for too long and got out at 10 cents with 30k loss.

I used to be a believer in TMR who and Hugh got big thumbs up from Smart Investor and Money magazines.

I wouldn't go near this one again even if there was a reversal.

 

[tulasi74]

I hung on to this one for too long and got out at 10 cents with 30k loss.

I used to be a believer in TMR who and Hugh got big thumbs up from Smart Investor and Money magazines.

I wouldn't go near this one again even if there was a reversal.

10 cents and a 30k loss. WOW. Wish I knew when to pull the plug on this one. I was the idiot that had a good gut feeling a while ago when everyone was bagging the stock.

The way copper price is heading, there must be those that are thinking that their Chilean operations is not profitable either.

I will sit on them for a little bit longer to reduce losses but am getting ready to take a big hit on these.

 

[Fisherman99]

Me too (30k)... :3 cents? - This is the SP for a company after a lot of bull****ting their investors... They bought IBR, after some months it seems they want to get rid of it, they announce a loss and further writedowns...:mad After selling the Lichvaz plant and the new IBR-report we have to accept, that there won"t be any gold-mine in the near future. Is it possible to trust such a company? 3 Cents seems to be cheap - but does anybody know, what kind of surprises they still have for us? What is a small high-cost copper miner with a lot of liabilities worth?

 

[prawn_86]

What is a small high-cost copper miner with a lot of liabilities worth?

Well, considering there are explorers without JORCd reserves out there with MC over double what TMR is, you would think that 3c might represent fair value at least. But we know the market is an irrational beast.

Im wondering if after a bit of slicing and dicing, if the co was sold off in parts, it ust be close to (if not more than) the value of the current MC.

Watching with interest

 

[prawn_86]

Ann out this morning stating the co position with its operations.

It seems that nothing too much has changed, except for what was already known re: the armenian assets.

Cu grades, mine and plant production are all in an upward trend.

Could it just have been panic selling? Lets see what the market says today...

 

[ROE]

with the SP movement today I got an extra ball so the game is not yet over
and the pinball machine still kicking

 

[prawn_86]

Up about 80% since the intraday low on Monday of .026c. Anyone else catch the knife?

It was just massive panic selling obviously...

 

[Aargh!]

Up about 80% since the intraday low on Monday of .026c. Anyone else catch the knife?

It was just massive panic selling obviously...

Explain how it was obviously panic selling? Sorry to pick a Mod up on providing some sort of analysis

Yes its up hard since the intraday low but let me put that into perspective... It's only up 6% of last years high. Barely impressive. Like they say being there once makes it easier to be there the second time.

To me TMR have made some very poor decisions (IBR). Management still appears ambivalent.

 

[prawn_86]

Over the long term it sure has been sh1te (i would know, its y pick for the yearly comp )

The reason I think Monday was panic selling is the fact that it dropped 40% on no announcement, and now with the benefit of hindsight, it is confirmed, due to the rise it has had since then. Unless this is just a dead cat bounce...

 

[tulasi74]

Volume on Monday was 33 million with VWAP of 3.32 cents. Since then it has been 10.8 mil VWAP 3.63, 10.2 mill VWAP 4.44 and 12.2 mil VWAP 4.30. Maybe whoever sold the 33 mill bought it back slowly.

I bought 150k at 3 cents and quickly dumped it at 3.9 cents to reduce losses. Maybe I should have bought more and held a little longer and i would have come close to breaking even.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Not sure how much you can place on technical analysis for a specie like this but it might rebound from here to 10 - 11 cents in about 6 months based on technical analysis. No basis for the 6 months..it could happen in one day when they report.

Tulasi

 

[Fisherman99]

Did somebody notice that some directors got fired? My opinion is, that this selling was overdone - panik or watever. I found the last balance-sheet of IBR now (http://www.iberianresources.com/reports/financial.php) - the assets are 47 Mio., the liabilities 17 Mio. If there won"t be other nasty surprises, the writedowns on IBR won"t ruin TMR, nor the liabilities. On the other hand, TMR is going to sell the IBR-plant - additional cash for TMR. This year a loss, reduced shareholders equity - next year even better profit for TMR on increased copper output and reduced costs, if the price for copper remains stable. But anyway - it looks like a case for the police, the should start investigations - this thing really smells like fraud. And Mr. Hugh L.J. Callaghan should retire, too, because or he"s involved or he was stupid enough, to pay 120 Mio. for nearly worthless tenements... Anyway, his fault, he damaged the company and destroyd our money.

 

[Fisherman99]

I just found another copper-miner, Capstone Mining Corp.. Their Cozamin mine in Mexico has started an expansion to 3,000 tpd. Here some quick facts (2. Q.):

Capstone:
Mkt Cap: 247.35M
Copper cash costs for the quarter were $0.90/lb of copper
Copper grade (%) 1.66
Copper recovery (%) 88.9
EPS 0,15 $

Tamaya:Mkt Cap: 37.39M
Copper cash costs for the quarter were $2,25/lb of copper
Copper grade (%) 1.17
Copper recovery (%) 72,7
EPS Loss

This is another prove, that TMR has some work to do:

1. (most important): get rid of the old management, oust "Mr" Hugh L.J. Callaghan. He is to blame for the damages and losses and he is responsible for the actual SP, too.

2. increase the copper recovery

3. reduce cash costs

4. restore credibility => oust Callaghan


I think this company has alot of potential, if they get rid of their incapable management - but the SP will remain low until restoration of credibility. TMR is now a kind of "fallen angel"...

 

[HighTemplar]

Tamaya is cash rich with about 30 million after issuing 300 million new shares at 11.5c. At the current market price, the market cap of the whole tamaya is only ~43 million. Although they would need the cash for operations, a share buyback would stabilize prices.

The way i see it, since they issued new shares 4:1 for iberian. if i recall the 2007 annual report, they issued abt 500 million shares for iberian back when they took over 86%. Hypothetically, hence if they bought 500 million back at these depressed prices of abt 4 cents, the writedown for iberian would be more like 20 million, much less than the 108 million theoretical value. of course, there arent that many shares available on the open market and the price wont remain at 4 cents.

Tamaya itself is still profitable. The writedown is massive but it would probably be once off. Sure copper prices will decrease but the % extraction is increasing. Eps for 08 excluding the writedowns should be abt 0.5 cent, considering just a month ago copper was at its highest price. 0.5/3.1 which is todays close share price is a pre tax rough rate of return of abt 16%.

Moreover, iberian isnt exactly broke. they still have more assets than liabilities even after impairment. tamaya doesnt have debt obligations til 2010, thats a long time to go for things to work out.

the stock is way depressed. why panic? even after severe writedowns and impairment, the company will remain a going concern.

 

[Big_Daz]

Heartening sign we saw in today's announcement...big Hugh bought $4,500 worth of his price depleted stock.

But none-the-less...seeing directors purchase their own stock is a positive sign all be it only a small number.

 

[prawn_86]

Yes the directors have also copped a hammering on this one.

I can remember they bought about $300k between them when the price was above 25c.

 

[tulasi74]

Does anyone know why this stock is tanking? I am guessing it has something to do with falling copper prices?

If anyone knows any other info, would be greatly appreciated.

Tulasi