TLS - Telstra Corporation

scsl · 6 October 2006

I requested a copy of the prospectus today... But unsure as to what I will do from here.

On a totally different note, I was on the train home the other day and was very surprised to overhear a Telstra employee freely talking to a stranger about the different levels of managers there are and their roles. He said he worked at the head office in the Melbourne CBD and proceeded to talk about the kind of access these managers had in terms of which levels they could enter - he even spoke about what departments were contained on these levels. This is probably not illegal but I was just shocked to see this employee being so open to someone he just met. (People around us had no choice but to listen, as this person was speaking very loud!)

When asked about whether the public should buy into T3, he was all for it (as you would expect), giving nothing but positives that the company would achieve and then going on to give a two year price target of $15 to $18!! Seriously...

wavepicker · 6 October 2006

TLS has been really interesting. The stock has seen the subject of so much negativity, that pessimism among investors is at an all time high. Just a month ago(with prices at all time lows) the Herald Sun conducted a poll among mums and dads as to whether they would be buying into T3. The crowd gave an overwhelming no vote of 82.3%, convinced that the trend was down and the future bleak. My point here?

WHEN EVERYONE THINKS ALIKE EVERYONE IS LIKELY TO BE WRONG

Although it takes balls to do it, especially since it goes deeply against what the crowd is thinking, the art of contrary thinking consists in training your mind to ruminate directions opposite to general opinions; but weigh your conclusions in light of current events and manifestations of human behavior.

One of the 1st things to understand about markets and how and why they move is that: What seems logical is usually what will not happen.

nioka · 10 October 2006

I'm surprised that there isn't a lot of discussion on TLS today. I am interested in hearing comments on the offer ????

Warren Buffet II · 10 October 2006

nioka said:
I'm surprised that there isn't a lot of discussion on TLS today. I am interested in hearing comments on the offer ????

Hi Nioka,

Well, I believe the T3 offer is an interesting proposition. I will look at the prospect in more detail and probably will buy some shares in it.

WBII

carmo · 10 October 2006

I was just on ninemsn, they have a poll " Will you buy T3 shares?"
Yes...4339
No...29596

binh25 · 10 October 2006

What people vote do not translate to what people will/will not buy
People just need to look at TLS number, add some risk factor into it
and see if the price justify the purchase.

TLS is a massive and stable company so you wont see them increase their earning by 50% any time soon, more like a few percent going into the next couple of years. If their transformation process is working, ie compensate losing revenue on copper line with 3G, data and broadband then TLS is definitely a winner going forward but if the transformation doesnt work out then there is a risk you wont get your dividend and the share price may drop further.

Pick your risk level and decide whether or not to go or not to go with T3.

and the guy talking about Telstra going to 15 bucks in the next few years.....hmm just highly speculative talk and I leave it at that.

scsl · 11 October 2006

I don't know if any of you have noticed one of the ads in the top right of the forum window... The one from 'The Intelligent Investor' which starts off by saying 'Get your FREE special T3 Report now'.

At first I thought it would be worth getting to see what reasons it spells out for investing in the offer. But, a click on the ad reveals that the report is actually titled ‘5 Better Buys Than Telstra’!

I wonder what Mr. Trujillo and his Amigos would think of it...

Warren Buffet II · 11 October 2006

carmo said:
I was just on ninemsn, they have a poll " Will you buy T3 shares?"
Yes...4339
No...29596

This is the beauty about T3 as less people buy, the best (lower) price that people who is buying will have to pay.

So if I am buying I want everyone else out of there

WBII

Ferret · 12 October 2006

Due to its brilliant performance, my portfolio has become underweight in Telstra over the last few years! Guess I'll put in for a top up in T3.

Despite goverment regulation, their must be some money to be made in owning the pipes, even if Skype and the like are going to take the traditional revenue sources. And I'll take a punt that Telstra can get its act together and find a way to take a leading part in the new technology changes.

Ferret

pacer · 12 October 2006

Anyone got a BARGEPOLE.....so I can say "I still won't touch it"...better stuf than this circus about....totaly embarrasing to even think about goin' here...

Just had a few seconds to spare.....Freaks.....LOL

Vainglorious · 12 October 2006

wavepicker said:
TLS has been really interesting. The stock has seen the subject of so much negativity, that pessimism among investors is at an all time high. Just a month ago(with prices at all time lows) the Herald Sun conducted a poll among mums and dads as to whether they would be buying into T3. The crowd gave an overwhelming no vote of 82.3%, convinced that the trend was down and the future bleak. My point here?

WHEN EVERYONE THINKS ALIKE EVERYONE IS LIKELY TO BE WRONG

Although it takes balls to do it, especially since it goes deeply against what the crowd is thinking, the art of contrary thinking consists in training your mind to ruminate directions opposite to general opinions; but weigh your conclusions in light of current events and manifestations of human behavior.

One of the 1st things to understand about markets and how and why they move is that: What seems logical is usually what will not happen.

All good point BUT ..... markets (on average) are very good at predicting the future even when none of the participants themselves may be aware of the "big picture"

http://www.sciencenews.org/articles/20031018/bob9.asp

I didn't buy T1 because I was being screwed around by Telstra at the time over an overcharged phone bill. Why own shares in a company you don't want to do business with?

I didn't buy T2 because it was overpriced.

I won't buy T3 because Telstra has major problems with its internal culture (this dates back to their debacle of getting into internet hype at the top of the bubble) and I won't invest in any company in which people are paid more than $1m. I believe management should be kept mean and hungary.

wavepicker · 12 October 2006

Vainglorious said:
All good point BUT ..... markets (on average) are very good at predicting the future even when none of the participants themselves may be aware of the "big picture"

http://www.sciencenews.org/articles/20031018/bob9.asp

I didn't buy T1 because I was being screwed around by Telstra at the time over an overcharged phone bill. Why own shares in a company you don't want to do business with?

I didn't buy T2 because it was overpriced.

I won't buy T3 because Telstra has major problems with its internal culture (this dates back to their debacle of getting into internet hype at the top of the bubble) and I won't invest in any company in which people are paid more than $1m. I believe management should be kept mean and hungary.

I agree, the market is probably the best barometer of future economic activity. In most cases market activity precedes what happens in the economy, not the other way round as most fundamentalists believe to think.

TLS has been in decline some 6 years and that decline has preceded the upheaval going on in that company. However at some point in time, the market eventually starts to churn and we get a trend change from down to up or up to down. People love to project the current trend into the future. Whether it is up or down.

I have noticed in the past when pessimism/optimism reaches an extreme amongst the crowd, this is usually accompanied with a change in trend. Sometimes a change in primary trend, at other times only a minor trend. That’s not to say that this should be used as a timing tool. It merely suggests that we maybe near a bottom.

When optimism is high what does that mean? It means people already have their $$ invested in a company and are waiting for prices to go up and get them rich. If there is no new $$$$ to go in, then there is only one place prices will go, down.

When pessimism reaches an extreme what does that mean? It means that who ever was gonna sell out, has probably already done so. In that case the “strong hands” will start to do their buying.

Re employees being paid more than $1M. I agree, seems to be quite common in large companies however.

TraderPro · 12 October 2006

I'm going to invest some money into the float.

I'm not going to put the whole of my life savings on it.

We'll see where it goes...

Put it under my "long term speculative portfolio + cashflow" (if they keep their promise with the dividend)

scsl · 13 October 2006

I'm having a look at the prospectus atm. No kidding, there are 7 full pages on 'Risk factors'!!

I guess it means that if T3 turns out to be as bad an investment in the long run as the first two, investors only have themselves to blame.

nizar · 13 October 2006

TraderPro said:
I'm going to invest some money into the float.

I'm not going to put the whole of my life savings on it.

We'll see where it goes...

Put it under my "long term speculative portfolio + cashflow" (if they keep their promise with the dividend)

All the best with it TP,
I wont be participating myself. I can see much better investment opportunities at the moment.

DOC · 22 October 2006

it may not be like "Poseidon" or AUM (now CDU),
but my mother likes it and my grandmother is buying in T3,
so it must be good!! ....LOL

Kauri · 22 October 2006

On a technical perspective, if you owned this share, would you say now was a good time to sell??

RichKid · 22 October 2006

Kauri said:
On a technical perspective, if you owned this share, would you say now was a good time to sell??

Just thought I'd guess for the sake of theory....there could be any number of choices for an exit depending on your trading plan, for those long and just using some trend lines and swing patterns- break of last trendline or break of last major pivot low (start of last trendline), break of prior all time high (peak at middle of chart), break of minor pivot high, break of previous horizontal resistance line (at about halfway down last trendline), on failure to make new highs within 30 days etc etc.

Note there are no price markers and we don't know if this is intraday or daily or weekly and whether what the time frame is....but I guess you were probably just trying to make a simple point Kauri!

Alfredbra · 23 October 2006

IMO telstra is **** so is the SP as it has been for the last how many years. As significantly cheaper alternatives to phone calls such as VOIP, internet etc. the more worse telstra will be in years to come. Why dont they start by closing down india or iraqi pakistan or wherever call centers they have and start hiring australians that actually know what the hell they are doing. so many people are crapped off by telstra already so goodluck anyone who buys.

Kauri · 23 October 2006

RichKid said:
Just thought I'd guess for the sake of theory....there could be any number of choices for an exit depending on your trading plan, for those long and just using some trend lines and swing patterns- break of last trendline or break of last major pivot low (start of last trendline), break of prior all time high (peak at middle of chart), break of minor pivot high, break of previous horizontal resistance line (at about halfway down last trendline), on failure to make new highs within 30 days etc etc.

Note there are no price markers and we don't know if this is intraday or daily or weekly and whether what the time frame is....but I guess you were probably just trying to make a simple point Kauri!

Just that if there is no obvious technical reason to sell the other chart at this time, then technically there is probably no reason to buy the chart in this post at the moment.
Yes, they are both Telstra, just the first one was inverted.

TLS - Telstra Corporation

scsl

wavepicker

nioka

Warren Buffet II

carmo

binh25

scsl

Warren Buffet II

Ferret

pacer

Vainglorious

wavepicker

TraderPro

Optimus Prime

scsl

nizar

DOC

Kauri

E/W Learner

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RichKid

PlanYourTrade > TradeYourPlan

Alfredbra

Kauri

E/W Learner

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TLS - Telstra Corporation

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