TLS - Telstra Corporation

[petal]

Have received 3 Telstra prospectus this week for our family - binned the lot .We lost faith with this company when the rocket scientist took off for greener pastures after making his fiasco in China. Lost thousands on T2.

 

[RichKid]

Just that if there is no obvious technical reason to sell the other chart at this time, then technically there is probably no reason to buy the chart in this post at the moment.
Yes, they are both Telstra, just the first one was inverted.

Nice technique Kauri, I find it helps to clear biases sometimes when I'm stuck in a particular mindset. btw, notice the rounding nature of the last few months price action, may spike lower thought in a final flush out- this is from my understanding of rounding bottoms, no real evidence of one yet but we have lots of TA pointers on how to trade them.

 

[RichKid]

I requested a copy of the prospectus today... But unsure as to what I will do from here.

On a totally different note, I was on the train home the other day and was very surprised to overhear a Telstra employee freely talking to a stranger about the different levels of managers there are and their roles. He said he worked at the head office in the Melbourne CBD and proceeded to talk about the kind of access these managers had in terms of which levels they could enter - he even spoke about what departments were contained on these levels. This is probably not illegal but I was just shocked to see this employee being so open to someone he just met. (People around us had no choice but to listen, as this person was speaking very loud!)

When asked about whether the public should buy into T3, he was all for it (as you would expect), giving nothing but positives that the company would achieve and then going on to give a two year price target of $15 to $18!! Seriously...

That's a very interesting anecdote, I have read of marketing companies running ad campaigns involving stooges like this on public transport- they speak loudly on their phones to someone and drop info and phrases that the marketer is trying to get out to the public- like spreading rumours. Maybe the guy was just an idiot, if his judgement is so good that he can predict the share price ($15+ in two years??), how come he's working for a co that's gone south at a rate of knots? If he'd made that call on ASF he'd be banned by now....hehehe.
Thanks for sharing that though.

 

[Kauri]

On a totally different note, I was on the train home the other day and was very surprised to overhear a Telstra employee freely talking to a stranger about the different levels of managers there are and their roles. He said he worked at the head office in the Melbourne CBD and proceeded to talk about the kind of access these managers had in terms of which levels they could enter - he even spoke about what departments were contained on these levels. This is probably not illegal but I was just shocked to see this employee being so open to someone he just met. (People around us had no choice but to listen, as this person was speaking very loud!)

When asked about whether the public should buy into T3, he was all for it (as you would expect), giving nothing but positives that the company would achieve and then going on to give a two year price target of $15 to $18!! Seriously....

Was he by any chance short, grey haired and have bushy eyebrows?? :evilburn:

 

[Ken]

Would people buy telstra at current prices or subscribe to T3?

I just feel the dividend is far to good to pass up.

What do people think the total T3 share price will be?

Is telstra cheap at current prices?

If dividends are kept up 10 years will see the stock pay for itself...

 

[Warren Buffet II]

Would people buy telstra at current prices or subscribe to T3?

I believe people will prefer to subscribe to T3 rather than buying at current prices, I heard that some people are actually selling their shares and buying T3.

I just feel the dividend is far to good to pass up.

The dividend is very good and in contrast to what some people believe I think it will increase next year or after that.

What do people think the total T3 share price will be?

I believe the final price will be $3.50-$3.70

Is telstra cheap at current prices?

I think it is, Telstra has the problem of the influence of the goverment and all that but if you look at the fundamentals it is a monopoly and against that there is no much to do for other companies.

I have seen comments here about VOIP, Vodafone etc etc and how this is going to end Telstra, that people have no idea about Telcos at all. I'll just give you an example, Broadband, people are saying I am not taking Telstra Broadband anymore I am moveing to ISP XX, it is OK but ISP XX has to pay Telstra every month for the line that goes to your place, in most cases we are talking about 30%-40% of the price charge but the ISP to you. I can go on and on about this...

If dividends are kept up 10 years will see the stock pay for itself...

Not only that, if Telstra anytime decides to demerge some of their businesses I believe T3 will be paid by itself. I'll give you this Telstra book price currently is $2.10.

But at the same time I'll be more than happy if no many people buy into T3.

WBII

 

[RichKid]

I believe people will prefer to subscribe to T3 rather than buying at current prices, I heard that some people are actually selling their shares and buying T3.


The dividend is very good and in contrast to what some people believe I think it will increase next year or after that.


I believe the final price will be $3.50-$3.70


I think it is, Telstra has the problem of the influence of the goverment and all that but if you look at the fundamentals it is a monopoly and against that there is no much to do for other companies.

I have seen comments here about VOIP, Vodafone etc etc and how this is going to end Telstra, that people have no idea about Telcos at all. I'll just give you an example, Broadband, people are saying I am not taking Telstra Broadband anymore I am moveing to ISP XX, it is OK but ISP XX has to pay Telstra every month for the line that goes to your place, in most cases we are talking about 30%-40% of the price charge but the ISP to you. I can go on and on about this...

Not only that, if Telstra anytime decides to demerge some of their businesses I believe T3 will be paid by itself. I'll give you this Telstra book price currently is $2.10.

But at the same time I'll be more than happy if no many people buy into T3.

WBII

WBII, would you be able to flesh out some of the reasoning behind your initial comments in your last post please? While I understand that these are merely your opinions it would be helpful if you could reveal the basis of your reasoning, while you have done this for your latter statements a bit more detail in your initial statements would be useful. Thank you.

 

[Warren Buffet II]

WBII, would you be able to flesh out some of the reasoning behind your initial comments in your last post please? While I understand that these are merely your opinions it would be helpful if you could reveal the basis of your reasoning, while you have done this for your latter statements a bit more detail in your initial statements would be useful. Thank you.

Hi RichKid,

Sure, no problem:

****The dividend is very good and in contrast to what some people believe I think it will increase next year or after that.

14% for the $2 you pay today (excluding final instalment) I believe is higher that any other share on offer at the moment, who pays more than that?

(0.14 + 0.14) / $2 = 14% Franked 100% @ 30%, so you are low income you can even get an 18.2% divds

The 28c divds in based on the last paid divd which was 14c, but before that it was 20c twice, there are chances that the divds even increase.


****I believe the final price will be $3.50-$3.70:

Check some articles:
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,20560016-664,00.html

****I think it is, Telstra has the problem of the influence of the goverment and all that but if you look at the fundamentals it is a monopoly and against that there is no much to do for other companies.

Everyone knows Telstra is a monopoly in many Australian places and in fixed lines, there is no other company that offers copper lines to residences, which means any company installing any service over those lines will pay the toll.

Any more questions Richkid?

WBII

 

[Ken]

I have applied for 10,000 T3 shares.

i am getting them through margin loan on my bhp shares, and am comfortable that the dividend will cover the interest on the $2 intial payment.

I will have paid the intial installment off in this time, and bhp and rio will be booming. I am firm believer in TLS for the future, and believe that for company that offers such good divs the possibilty of the share price doubling in the next 5-10 years is high, if they get their **** together.

thats my opinion and believe theres still a very rocky road ahead.

 

[RichKid]

Hi RichKid,

Sure, no problem:.............
..........
.........
****I think it is, Telstra has the problem of the influence of the goverment and all that but if you look at the fundamentals it is a monopoly and against that there is no much to do for other companies.

Everyone knows Telstra is a monopoly in many Australian places and in fixed lines, there is no other company that offers copper lines to residences, which means any company installing any service over those lines will pay the toll.

Any more questions Richkid?

WBII

Thanks WB, that's great, I had an idea of what you were saying but I thought it useful to have these issues fleshed out further. In relation to the last point, it's important to remember that the political climate and ACCC intervention in pricing schemes may take something of the monopolistic power away from TLS so perhaps it should not be considered the same as any other monopoly due to the high level of political interest in this market. Just a thought as many people just make assumptions about monopolies when there aren't many true monoplies left these days with true monopolistic power (eg ASX, TOL?, WDC?, AWB?). Besides, how important are these copper lines to TLS over the next decade or so? This is a vexed issue. Will a monopoly in that specific market be of much value in the future?

If you have a look at the commsec website www.comsec.com.au/t3 there is a comparison of alternative leveraged products, I was doing some reading to see if I should buy in myself. Note that comsec is trying to sell you something so take it with a grain of salt. There is another T3 thread on ASF if anyone wants to go into more detail about the prospectus and T3 strategies.

 

[Warren Buffet II]

Just a thought as many people just make assumptions about monopolies when there aren't many true monoplies left these days with true monopolistic power (eg ASX, TOL?, WDC?, AWB?). Besides, how important are these copper lines to TLS over the next decade or so? This is a vexed issue. Will a monopoly in that specific market be of much value in the future?

Hi RichKid,

I agree with what you are saying but I also believe that Telstra will keep its current monopoly in copper lines at least for the next 5 to 10 years because basically there is no replacement available for that technology yet. I know there are techs like wireless broadband but that kind of tech will need about 2 or 3 years just to take off from today, in the meantime Telstra will keep generating revenue from them.

Also remember that Telstra is the largest media company in Australia, they offer phone lines, mobiles, Internet Broadband, printing media (sensis, white and yellow pages etc) and TV media (Foxtel), and one of the comments I pickup yesterday from a newspaper is that Telstra could be even interested in fairfax newspapers once all this T3 affair ends and the media reform get on its way.

I believe there is potential in the long run and that even T2 people could benefit from T3, so I am personally applying for T3 because I see this company as a value investment. Telstra sounds like any company that the real Warren Buffett have invested in the past: out-of-favour, low value, monopoly, I'd say good management and opportunities available.

WBII

 

[Ken]

who thinks telstra will be below $4 in 10 years?

 

[scsl]

who thinks telstra will be below $4 in 10 years?

As bad as Telstra may be at the moment, I think this is highly unlikely. Telstra is a major player in the telecommunications sector and a well known brand.

Although it would make sense for potential customers to steer clear of Telstra because of the bad media, this is not the case in real life. Telstra continues to see high growth in its internet/broadband division. The cost cutting will not go to waste and should see Telstra come out as a 'leaner and meaner' company.

Telstra is a good long term buy, but if I was to buy, I would buy later down the track. For this company to be below $4 in 5 years (not to mention 10), A LOT of things would have to go really wrong.

I say this, despite not ever owning Telstra shares. I won't be buying any in T3 either.

 

[Ken]

soo many opinions on telstra.

its good to get different points of view.

With any company majority comes down to management and decision making.

If everyone is heading in the one direction i dont see any reason why things cant turn around. with the right people at the top change is happening.

Due to the mum and dad investors losing big time on telstra over the years its had more bad publicity than most. I am sure if you went through a woodside or a maquarie bank there would be areas that could make them more profitable for shareholders.

I see telstra as a different company now that the board is not government owned.

I just dont see how a company could perform at its best when its run for the people, and not the shareholders.

anyways

i am subscribing.

12000 units please, hope i get em...

 

[scsl]

12000 units please, hope i get em...

I think you can put them down as being yours already! It would be very interesting if you were to be scaled back.

 

[TraderPro]

anyways

i am subscribing.

12000 units please, hope i get em...

Ken... just wondering...

Are you in for the long term growth or are you in for the short term yield?

 

[Ken]

at 21 years of age i plan on holding them for 5 years plus and beyond.

re-investing the dividends into stocks i find attractive.

bad plan? I believe this is a good place to start, i dont have the time to be a day trader as such or do i want the headaches of investing in property and having a big loan to pay back.

If telstra falls down after the 18 month period i will be buying more again.

telstra is not the only stock in my port folio though.

 

[trading_rookie]

I've looked at TLS as a long term buy.

The dividends paid out on my T1+T2 shares (1997-current) has been good! Actually a lot better than any other stock I own. Infact, you could say div + current sp has me in the black not red.

T3 incl. discount + free shares and installments adding up to about AUD3.50 has my attention.

The negative is the 15% still owned by the Future fund (obviously the final amount will depend on how much public interest there will be for T3) and what will happen to these shares in 2 yrs time.

Not to mention the ever present ACCC forcing Telstra to surrender it's networks and services to it's competitors for a pittance. Last one I read about was Unwired claiming Telstra was undercutting it!

If Telstra does eventually end up de-merging into a few subsidaries then the prospect of automatically owning shares in these 'spin offs' sounds enticing indeed.

 

[Ken]

the things are headed the second installment could be $2 or are people buying up now so they can use the stock to margin loan on t3.

BT investments will not let me use the full extent of my margin loan capacity as i am going in the public offer...

 

[Ken]

TLS up to $4 surely the second installment is not going to be over $2....