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I wasn't talking about Berkshire i was talking about Buffett investing rule of companies with at least a 10 year history of a average of 10% return. - not saying its my way of investing but he says it all the time
NBN hasnt been positive for any telco so far that doesn't mean anything Australia needs it, it has some of the worst telecommunication in the developed world.
The fact is TLS still has competitive edge and people need telecommunication it is in a no lose situation. However I agree with people saying it is badly managed.
Additionally,nI agree with you when you say dont trust the fools though they have good 'general principles' however in my experience they are far better at marketing then they are at investing.
Is net profit still growing? Again, there's a $2-3bn hole in EBITDA coming up... That's a little scary given total EBITDA was just over $10bn...
As for the "Warren Buffett 10%p.a."... check Berkshire Hathaway's returns - they're far higher than 10%.
@Miner
Appreciate the response. Just a few things I'd mention:
1) Not sure I'd take the Motley fool's advice on anything. Track record is not great. I know nothing of Market Matters, so I won't comment there.
2) Customer service - sure, this helps. But telecommunications is largely commoditised at the retail level. People will pay less and complain, rather than pay a premium (somewhat similar to airlines) - the device is a different story. And with the recent series of network outages, it'll take a while for Telstra to get that goodwill back.
"But technology has changed and so is TLS"
Technology as a whole has, but for the worse for TLS shareholders. The impact of NBN is not a positive one for Telstra.
Do they however all have the same cost base for the services they can bundle?
Unfortunately I haven't been able to answer either of those questions at this point. I do however, see where the doubt that comes from craft, yourself and the Forager and others have expressed.
Correct me if I am wrong but to plug the 2-3billion EBITDA hole they'd need to invest between 8.33 and 12.5 billion. Obviously less if the returns are better.
Any rate all of it probably fades into insignificance compared to bond yield outlooks and hence discount rates at this stage for the short to medium term impact on TLS's stock price.
Not sure which thread this question should go in, but I'll ask it here to start...
I'm taking a look at the mobile coverage Telstra has in regional areas (also applies to other mobile providers) and trying to understand the technologies behind it - specifically the backhaul that transports data from the mobile towers to the relevant Point(s) of Presence (PoP).
Is this carried across the same set of copper networks that are used for standard telephone lines/ADSL connections, or is it a separate backhaul? (I ask because I'm wondering if ultimately the NBN could do the same thing for mobile towers)
I'm not 100% sure of the makeup of the network, so this might be a stupid question... If I manage to answer the question myself and it hasn't been answered here, I'll post my findings.
Thanks.
Late last month, Vodafone CEO Inaki Berroeta told a Trans-Tasman Circle business lunch that NBN Co fibre to Vodafone's cell tower sites would help bring down the company's costs.
"Vodafone Hutchison Australia would pay close to 6 percent of revenues on transmission; this is more than three times what the whole company would pay outside this market. I really want, and I am also watching really closely with NBN Co because this will bring more competition there."
"I don't know. You should be asking what NBN Co is doing. As soon as I can use NBN Co for transmission, I will use it," he said at the time
Yes, the major players aren't very vocal about it at all... You would think NBN Co would be shouting this from the rooftops, given all the negative press.Thanks Klogg, must admit I had a quick look at this before work after seeing your first post and couldn't find much.
I have a feeling the NBN trial in relation to mobile network backhaul (with Vodafone) have more to do with regional areas than they do metropolitan city areas. I suspect there's much less competition in those areas because it's very expensive to build the technology (and less scale etc.).
Do Telstra and Optus use a bit of satellite technology for some of those regional areas?
Then there's 5G, which Telstra is paying a lot of money to get a headstart. I remember reading they even paid big money to send personnel to get involved in the development / testing overseas. In some areas the technology is rumoured to trump the NBN too.
In a way it's like a nuclear arms race at the moment. Only the big players have the balance sheets to fund it.
EDIT: And of course, then the phone carriers need to build towers every where... and have the technology to transmit all of the different frequencies. Does my head in.
Struggling with this issue a bit. Say it does become cheaper. Is NBNCo limited to only building such backhaul that links in to 121 Points of Interconnectivity (POIs) that have already been agreed for the NBN? Or is this a completely different issue? Does it need government funding outside of the current NBN budget or if not how does NBNCo fund it? Do they want to fund it if someone else already is in that area?At the moment, yes. But what happens if the NBN becomes the cheaper option for backhaul? As I understand it, NBN charge for bandwidth, whereas the current utilisation is charged based on data usage. I could be wrong though, needs more work on my part.
Agree, it is all theoretical. In reality those maximum speeds won't happen. But they don't need to happen at the top end, they just need to be at least equivalent to the NBN speeds (especially if the retail providers are spreading the bandwidth thin), for it to be a source of competition don't they? And if they are equivalent, it'll be interesting to see the cost differentials between NBN and mobile data. Both will obviously be in demand.... but wonder if there's some overlap.FWIW - the 20Gbps is the theoretical maximum, but the real speeds will be nowhere near that. I believe 4G LTE is quoted at 100Mbps, but the reality is users achieve about 20Mbps.
I'm just not sure how it can trump the NBN though... It can only go as fast as the backhaul allows. If CVC charges weren't so prohibitive, there's no reason why NBN can't provide this level of service, if not more. From memory, a single strand of fibre can accomodate for 1Tbps (1,000Gbps)... Sure, each consumer won't get this, but imagine what the technological limits (rather than financial limits) are.
As for the frequencies that are sold... they still confuse me a little. I understand that they split of certain bands and auction them, but I don't quite understand the terms... (e.g. is it Aus wide? How long is it for? Do they sub-let it, if so for how much? etc.)
Struggling with this issue a bit. Say it does become cheaper. Is NBNCo limited to only building such backhaul that links in to 121 Points of Interconnectivity (POIs) that have already been agreed for the NBN? Or is this a completely different issue? Does it need government funding outside of the current NBN budget or if not how does NBNCo fund it? Do they want to fund it if someone else already is in that area?
Could get messy! But I can definitely see why you're looking at this.
Agree, it is all theoretical. In reality those maximum speeds won't happen. But they don't need to happen at the top end, they just need to be at least equivalent to the NBN speeds (especially if the retail providers are spreading the bandwidth thin), for it to be a source of competition don't they? And if they are equivalent, it'll be interesting to see the cost differentials between NBN and mobile data. Both will obviously be in demand.... but wonder if there's some overlap.
I have a feeling that ACMA administer this.
http://www.acma.gov.au/Industry/Telco/Carriers-and-service-providers/Licensing
I don't know much about it either. But that looks like a good place to start if you're interested?
struggling to get away from $5, was $6.60 18months ago, close to a 30% fall for TLS in this bear market
hope the dividend does better
Yeah, makes sense that Telstra would use their own. Just curious if it could allow others to extend their mobile networks to regional areas. Not sure of the distance though from the POI to various required mobile towers.picking a few points up... mobile services dont have to use NBN backhaul, there are various fibre backhaul providers, Telstra would have enough of their own fibre backhaul for their mobile network.
It won't provide you with the full bandwidth 24/7... but I'm guessing your internet plan now doesn't either. At that price, contention ratios may be within the realm of useful.The potenial reduction in CVC charges still doensnt help that much - at $10 its still $1000 per month in CVC charges to provide the plan I am paying for - 100/40mbps, unlimited.
Yeah, makes sense that Telstra would use their own. Just curious if it could allow others to extend their mobile networks to regional areas. Not sure of the distance though from the POI to various required mobile towers.
It won't provide you with the full bandwidth 24/7... but I'm guessing your internet plan now doesn't either. At that price, contention ratios may be within the realm of useful.
Closed at $5 today, terrible situation for long term shareholders
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