TLS - Telstra Corporation

[MrBurns]

Burnsie,

Is your intention with Telstra to be a short term trader or a long term investor ?

I was thinking long term but when you come in at a high, it's a little unnerving when things start to look shaky on several fronts. I guess if I was confident all would be ok in the long term I'd just stay in there.
I'll go back in at some stage, maybe soon maybe not, I'm just concerned there may be a sudden and unexpected downturn, things just look a little fragile right now.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Just noticed this thread today. I do remember Burns buying a decent parcel a while back and it occurred to me that he might well have bought at the top. (whether this is true or not is not the point of my post, and I'm not nearly interested enough in others' trading activities to chronicle their moves).

My point is that it is strange behaviour for a couple of ASF posters to attempt to humiliate him for this loss, without adding anything constructive. What does this achieve other than more bitterness on both sides?

 

[Trembling Hand]

without adding anything constructive. What does this achieve other than more bitterness on both sides?

that was tried but ignored and spat back at a long time ago. I guess all thats left is a "told ya so" when trying to offer an opinion thats taken as hostility.

 

[MrBurns]

Just noticed this thread today. I do remember Burns buying a decent parcel a while back and it occurred to me that he might well have bought at the top. (whether this is true or not is not the point of my post).

My point is that it is strange behaviour for a couple of ASF posters to attempt to humiliate him for this loss, without adding anything constructive. What does this achieve other than more bitterness on both sides?

It backfired as he was only referring to the second purchase and I agree with the rest of your post, I wont be posting any details in here in future.

 

[MrBurns]

that was tried but ignored and spat back at a long time ago. I guess all thats left is a "told ya so" when trying to offer an opinion thats taken as hostility.

That's BS, link please.

 

[sinner]

that was tried but ignored and spat back at a long time ago. I guess all thats left is a "told ya so" when trying to offer an opinion thats taken as hostility.

What I find interesting is that people take it as hostility, apparently despite Joe calling for maturity, I'm the coward out to bash and humiliate all round.

 

[Bintang]

My point is that it is strange behaviour for a couple of ASF posters to attempt to humiliate him for this loss, without adding anything constructive. What does this achieve other than more bitterness on both sides?

I agree with you GB. Their post are just pollution of cyber-space. Best just to ignore them.

 

[MrBurns]

I agree with you GB. Their post are just pollution of cyber-space. Best just to ignore them.

I didn't lose in any case but it certainly was a vile and vindictive post as well as being incorrect.

 

[Joe Blow]

Folks, I want to make something very clear:

If you volunteer information about your holdings, or your buy/sell decisions, then you need to be ready to have others question them, or even criticise them, if they feel inclined to comment on it. Everything you post is up for discussion. If you do not wish for your holdings or buy/sell decisions to be discussed then please do not volunteer the information. It cannot be simpler than that.

Conversely, if someone has not posted anything about their holdings or their buy/sell decisions then it is simply not up for discussion. Do not ask for details, do not make assumptions or accusations, and do not level any criticism. Just stick to discussing the stock and leave others out of it.

I want all this pointless bickering to stop now. Any post in this thread from this point forward that is not discussing TLS will be removed. Enough is enough. Back on topic please!

 

[Ves]

I'm fairly sure that the future estimated (read: guessimate) of JHX's asbestos liabilities is about $1.7 billion. I believe they have paid about $1 billion before this. There are estimates of costs of consultants ex. $30 million per year that TLS might need to handle this if it blows up. Sounds like pocket change for an ASX20 company.

That's about the equivalent of a TLS half-yearly dividend payment ($0.14). A bit more pocket change for costs. It looks like a bit of a storm in a teacup, and potentially an excuse for those in the media and institutions to keep screaming "sell TLS!" We all know what happens when fear strikes, people sell, and someone is on the other end of the trade taking advantage.

That's the beauty of reliable free cash flow - it can be used to meet contingencies if and when they come up without weakening the capital structure.

What am I missing?

edit: I think the recent sell-off has more to do with the AUD currency devaluation and foreign investors getting out than anything fundamental to the company itself.

 

[Trembling Hand]

We all know what happens when fear strikes, people sell, and someone is on the other end of the trade taking advantage.

Its not necessary fear nor can you say the the person on other end of the trade is the one taking advantage. There is always someone on the other side of a trade. That's irrelevant. What matters should be protection of your own capital then as i pointed out to Burnsie a week ago the risks were changing and the people who were forced to pay ever higher prices to get in and therefore create a nice trend have stopped, at least temporarily, piling in.

Now anyone who wants out is being forced to accept lower and lower prices to have their demand met.

 

[McLovin]

What am I missing?

Nothing that I can see. The asbestos thing has been way overblown imho. The presence of asbestos in pits is not a secret, and Telstra already pays out to former workers. There has been some sort of breakdown in the process of training and safety, probably because there are so many contractors working on this. If you've ever worked in a large corporate you know these things happen all the time. Usually they don't involve something as dangerous as asbestos though and Thodey needs to show ownership of this issue and cut it down before it grows into something big. Which is what he seems to be doing.

I'm fairly sure that the future estimated (read: guessimate) of JHX's asbestos liabilities is about $1.7 billion. I believe they have paid about $1 billion before this.

I really doubt this will ever get to the level of the Hardie claims. If you make some high ball compo assumptions, that each person affected will receive $300k (the average Hardie claim is ~$200k), then that assumes 9,000 workers will contract a dust disease. A mighty feat when NBN Co only has 7,500 contractors in total. And the majority of those who go into the pits will not even be exposed to asbestos dust, unlike people who were exposed to asbestos through building products or mining/manufacturing asbestos related product.

The media will swirl around this until they find some new outrage on social media to focus their attention on.

 

[prawn_86]

Have to agree with McLovin (as usual). It has been overblown by the media and the risk posed is minimal, to a tiny number of employees. I'm not saying that everything is fine, but I bet there are a lot more dangerous things going on in other workplaces that the media is not reporting

 

[fiftyeight]

I must be missing something in the chain of responsibility (possibly/probably wrong terminology) or something else completely?

If NBN and Telstra are aware of these issues and have procedures in place to deal with it appropriately, how can there be legal action at a later date because somebody did not follow company policy?

JH knew about the dangers but did not provide an adequate level of safety to employees. Telstra and NBN "appear" to be taking an adequate level of safety and protection. If individual contractors do not follow these guidelines are they not responsible?

 

[McLovin]

I must be missing something in the chain of responsibility (possibly/probably wrong terminology) or something else completely?

If NBN and Telstra are aware of these issues and have procedures in place to deal with it appropriately, how can there be legal action at a later date because somebody did not follow company policy?

JH knew about the dangers but did not provide an adequate level of safety to employees. Telstra and NBN "appear" to be taking an adequate level of safety and protection. If individual contractors do not follow these guidelines are they not responsible?

I'm not sure. I know Comcare have told the federal government that they may be liable (through NBN Co) but I don't know the interaction between TLS and NBN. Most of the media reports are also sufficiently vague which makes me think they don't know either.

Workers' Comp is no fault, iirc, so they will still be eligible for compensation regardless of whether they followed rules/procedures.

 

[fiftyeight]

Cheers McLovin, the current vagueness says a lot.

This is probably for a different thread, but

Can a worker for an "asbestos clean up company" claim for damages at a later date? I would think not or there would be none is business. Therefore if any company provides the same level of safety as an "asbestos clean up company" to a known asbestos threat how can they be liable?

 

[McLovin]

Cheers McLovin, the current vagueness says a lot.

This is probably for a different thread, but

Can a worker for an "asbestos clean up company" claim for damages at a later date? I would think not or there would be none is business. Therefore if any company provides the same level of safety as an "asbestos clean up company" to a known asbestos threat how can they be liable?

I would think they would be able to claim for damages. They have been injured at work, which is the primary criteria that needs to be met. It is probably a bit beyond this thread though.

You can even claim compo when you're on the job...

http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-new...kers-compo-for-sex-injury-20121217-2biru.html

 

[fiftyeight]

Haha I remember reading that one.

That blows my argument out of ... the water

 

[Ves]

Nothing that I can see. The asbestos thing has been way overblown imho. The presence of asbestos in pits is not a secret, and Telstra already pays out to former workers. There has been some sort of breakdown in the process of training and safety, probably because there are so many contractors working on this. If you've ever worked in a large corporate you know these things happen all the time. Usually they don't involve something as dangerous as asbestos though and Thodey needs to show ownership of this issue and cut it down before it grows into something big. Which is what he seems to be doing.



I really doubt this will ever get to the level of the Hardie claims. If you make some high ball compo assumptions, that each person affected will receive $300k (the average Hardie claim is ~$200k), then that assumes 9,000 workers will contract a dust disease. A mighty feat when NBN Co only has 7,500 contractors in total. And the majority of those who go into the pits will not even be exposed to asbestos dust, unlike people who were exposed to asbestos through building products or mining/manufacturing asbestos related product.

The media will swirl around this until they find some new outrage on social media to focus their attention on.

Thank you - just to clarify I don't hold any TLS - and I was using JHX asbestos claim costs as the extreme end of the scale (ie. even that won't hurt TLS long-term). Good to see I'm not the only one who is thinking along these lines. This sounds like one of those "media needs to attach a story to price movement" cases that you mentioned in the XAO thread. It's a shame that some retail investors probably fell for it.

 

[skc]

Thank you - just to clarify I don't hold any TLS - and I was using JHX asbestos claim costs as the extreme end of the scale (ie. even that won't hurt TLS long-term). Good to see I'm not the only one who is thinking along these lines. This sounds like one of those "media needs to attach a story to price movement" cases that you mentioned in the XAO thread. It's a shame that some retail investors probably fell for it.

I am pretty sure that TLS isn't falling because of the asbestos news...