Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

TLS - Telstra Corporation

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Trembling Hand said:
Burnsie there seems to be two types of profitable traders. Those that are very lucking putting a lot on one or two stocks and getting on an incredible ride and the other type are the ones who know how to skew the numbers in their favour over 100s of trades. Not just the next one.

But only 1 of the above types ever become long-term profitable traders.

Seems very unwise to not plan or control risk with so much cash, only asking to be at the mercy of emotions.
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You're right, gut feel comes into it far too often , I've lost a bit over the past 5 years following "tips" from brokers on Business Tonight (or The Business as its now called) Charlie Aitkin comes to mind:banghead:

I'll never "research" to the point where I'll do multiple trades as you describe, if anything I should just take an index fund when the market stabilises.
 
MrBurns said:
Wow down to $3.89 I dont think I'd risk enough to make any worthwhile profit.

If it goes back up 20c invest $100,000, you only make $5,000 invest $500,000 = $25,000 that's worthwhile but the risk is greater too, or you could lose the same.
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I'd tend to agree as per the second part of my post above.

MrBurns said:
You're right, gut feel comes into it far too often , I've lost a bit over the past 5 years following "tips" from brokers on Business Tonight (or The Business as its now called) Charlie Aitkin comes to mind:banghead:
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If however it's someone else's money, ................................;)
 
I was being a little cryptic (and humorous I hope), but I'm simply saying that it's easier to risk someone else's money (or provide advice to that effect) than it is to risk one's own.

With the latter, you bare the full responsibility of the outcome.
 
drsmith said:
I was being a little cryptic (and humorous I hope), but I'm simply saying that it's easier to risk someone else's money (or provide advice to that effect) than it is to risk one's own.

With the latter, you bare the full responsibility of the outcome.
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Ahh yes thats what I thought you might have meant and it's true, thanks :)
 
Burns from what I can see you have been watching TLS for quite awhile and seem to know the arguments for and against medium and long term price direction, dividends (including franking), etc - you'll really need to make your own decision as to when a good time to buy in will be. Opportunities always come.

I tend to agree with TH though, and worry that the trend of your posts has been when to 'buy large' into TLS. I think that is the only way you are truly at risk investing in TLS. Invest a small portion of your funds, and you can enjoy the dividend and possible capital growth. Invest it all in TLS, and you risk a lot of your capital for what suddenly seems like a fairly paltry 7% dividend (as you said above, if 5% ain't enough...).

There are many other options with high dividend yield, much lower p/e and comparable future earnings growth potential. I would advise looking into a few others as well. This is of course based on investing, and not trading - which in my opinion is easier to master, and easier to apply basic principles of logic in.

Sorry if any of this post is presumptuous and/or inappropriate.
 
MrBurns said:
This is more interesting than any action movie:eek:
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I'm not really into action movies but it is interesting. I'm in the pension phase of a SMSF with an average TLS buy price well under today's close.

I'd be interested in the views of members into charting. Around $3.50 TLS might again be a good buy?

The market is clearly precarious. Have you any buy price in mind Mr B?
 
Muschu said:

Have you any buy price in mind Mr B?
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No buy price rick, I'm just trying to work out why this stock vasilates so much, seems when times look bad it rises and the opposite when things look OK again.
Where it ends up is anyones guess, but I'm a bit concerned the Libs might change the NBN somehow and what effect that might have.
All things considered I'll probably just sit on the fence, primarily because I dont know any better.:confused:
 
MrBurns said:
No buy price rick, I'm just trying to work out why this stock vasilates so much, seems when times look bad it rises and the opposite when things look OK again.
Where it ends up is anyones guess, but I'm a bit concerned the Libs might change the NBN somehow and what effect that might have.
All things considered I'll probably just sit on the fence, primarily because I dont know any better.:confused:
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Fair enough response .... Sounds like a good move for now.
 
TLS closed today at $3.76, it goes Ex Dividend on 20th Aug. paying a $0.14 dividend - $0.20 if you include the franking credit - paid on the 21st Sept.

If you buy TLS tomorrow at $3.76 , deduct the $0.20 grossed up dividend you're going to receive on 21st Sept. you're net cost is $3.56.

They project the next year or so dividends to stay at $0.28 - grossed up to $0.40.

$0.40/$3.56 = 11.235% yield - using the franking credits.

Sure, you've got to wait a while to claim your franking credits but I think that's still a pretty good return, especially in today's low interest climate.

I'm in a SMSF pension mode so it's tax free and I can claim the franking credits.

I've accumulated TLS over many years, from $1.95 T1 (remember?), to their high, around $9.00 down to the low, around $2.65 not so long ago.

I think if plan on keeping them long term and they maintain their dividend, 11% is a pretty good ROI.

Regards from Peter.
 
Peterchap said:
TLS closed today at $3.76, it goes Ex Dividend on 20th Aug. paying a $0.14 dividend - $0.20 if you include the franking credit - paid on the 21st Sept.

If you buy TLS tomorrow at $3.76 , deduct the $0.20 grossed up dividend you're going to receive on 21st Sept. you're net cost is $3.56.

They project the next year or so dividends to stay at $0.28 - grossed up to $0.40.

$0.40/$3.56 = 11.235% yield - using the franking credits.

Sure, you've got to wait a while to claim your franking credits but I think that's still a pretty good return, especially in today's low interest climate.

I'm in a SMSF pension mode so it's tax free and I can claim the franking credits.

I've accumulated TLS over many years, from $1.95 T1 (remember?), to their high, around $9.00 down to the low, around $2.65 not so long ago.

I think if plan on keeping them long term and they maintain their dividend, 11% is a pretty good ROI.

Regards from Peter.
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Well said Peter. I won't be buying Monday however. Lots of sellers right now. I probably have enough stock right now but close to $3.50 could be interested again. Still, the volatility is extreme and each day brings its own news. No guarantees anywhere. Hindsight is marvellous .....
Regards
Rick
 
MrBurns said:
TLS still going down and I've no idea why.

At least I didnt buy in a week ago.
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Pretend blow costs of NBN co and longer time to completion. Labour was lying about the costs from the beginning pretending it was going to be affordable as well as faster, selling it cheap to initial customers to make it all look so good.
Now they say "oh look it's costing more."
Rudd and Conroy lying monkeys.
Libs getting better case for changing the stratergy and Telstra's bonus.
Not sure how solid the contracts are myself.
 
Looks to me like a few grey-nomads are disappointed that they won't be getting their share-buyback to free up cash to upgrade to the latest Jayco and so are selling their shares. I've only had a quick look at the report but it didn't seem that bad aside from the lack of "capital management intiatives".
 
MrBurns said:
TLS big dive today, I've given up this guessing game.:confused:
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Its within a couple of cents of where it should be MrBurns.

14 cent dividend fully franked = 14 + (14x30%= 4.2) = 18.2 cents.

Each TLS share is worth 18.2 cents less than what they were worth on Friday
 

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