TLS - Telstra Corporation

[Muschu]

Just offloaded all my TLSIOU warrants, TLS going ex on Monday.
With the fact it is going ex and the negative sentiment at the moment I am tending to think that if TLS does a retrace of 38% to 50% it will be sub $3 again.

Taking the dividend and wearing the potential retracement was not an option, rather take just the profit and sit it out.

Between a rock and a hard place really. No doubt TLS will go "sub $3" on Monday.... Just a matter of whether the dividend and franking credits in a SMSF make it worthwhile...

 

[Boggo]

Between a rock and a hard place really. No doubt TLS will go "sub $3" on Monday....

It was a bit of a no brainer this time Rick, just take the profits and let it do whatever it wants to.
In a more stable market it is possible to get into a warrant, get the dividend and still get out again for the same or better price with the divvy as a bonus.

Regardless of what you trade the overall market sentiment/trend will have an influence, in the case of TLS though this has been perfect timing for the run up as it goes ex on Monday.

 

[jancha]

Between a rock and a hard place really. No doubt TLS will go "sub $3" on Monday.... Just a matter of whether the dividend and franking credits in a SMSF make it worthwhile...

Correct on that it would drop below $3 but what about the run back up.
TLS is a defensive stock and i personally see it heading back up to where it was exdiv date.

 

[Muschu]

Correct on that it would drop below $3 but what about the run back up.
TLS is a defensive stock and i personally see it heading back up to where it was exdiv date.

At the moment it at least looks like it may hang on, which is good enough for me in this market.

 

[pixel]

At the moment it at least looks like it may hang on, which is good enough for me in this market.

At these levels, TLS should remain a rather useful "Hold" for Superfunds.
14cps dividend every 6 months, fully franked, gets a gross yield of 40c/$3 or 13.33% p.a.
Not bad in my books.

 

[Boggo]

At these levels, TLS should remain a rather useful "Hold" for Superfunds.
14cps dividend every 6 months, fully franked, gets a gross yield of 40c/$3 or 13.33% p.a.
Not bad in my books.

If it starts to turn up I would agree. Past history though over the last 10 years or so would indicate that it has been a lemon for long term holders.

I 'hold' this stock for about 5 to 6 weeks each year and I am pretty sure that I make a lot more from it that someone who has been holding it continously.

Having said that though I am tending to think that it may have some future upside potential which may be good for anyone buying now but is just a long road to recovery for anyone who has been there for many years.

Monthly chart (click to expand)

 

[Muschu]

....Having said that though I am tending to think that it may have some future upside potential which may be good for anyone buying now.......

Fortunately [I think...] my buy price averaged around $2.85. Hoping this one may make up some lost ground but uncertaintly seems to be the flavour of the times...

Regards

R

 

[notting]

Did splendidly today given it went ex.
May have finally tuurned

 

[jancha]

Did splendidly today given it went ex.
May have finally tuurned

They had positive results in the 2nd half of the financial year and as a defensive share why wouldn't it turn?
It's been a bad performer over the years but at some point it has to turn back into positive territory it just cant keep going down (unless they're in financial trouble) with that 28c return each year so with the current sp people will want to get on board
I bought 10,000 last Friday @ $3.08 before ex div date on Monday. I still get the div yes so im up $700 or even better seeing as it's franked. No expert but i feel telstra will have a bit of a run up from here on. Im thinking $3.30 We'll see anyway.

 

[Julia]

They had positive results in the 2nd half of the financial year and as a defensive share why wouldn't it turn?

Can you say what you believe makes it a defensive share?

It's been a bad performer over the years but at some point it has to turn back into positive territory it just cant keep going down

Why not?

No expert but i feel telstra will have a bit of a run up from here on. Im thinking $3.30 We'll see anyway.

Can you explain the analysis behind your belief that it's about to have a run up?

I'm not saying you're wrong. I don't know what will happen with TLS.
Would just like to understand the reasons behind your assertions.

 

[pixel]

Just for the record and to clear up any confusion:
Many years ago, when I was still green enough to occasionally ask a Full Service Broker for advice, the person looking after one CHESS holding of mine insisted TLS would "soon be a $10 stock". That's when I ordered her to sell as soon as it poked the nose above $9. (yes, it was last Century and no, she didn't like it at all, but complied - $9.05 I got.)

I've been trading TLS in spurts now and then, even clipping a few dividends; but this year is the first time that I seriously consider keeping a few as an income provider - based on the calculations offered earlier today.Mind you, even at $4, a 40c dividend is nothing to sneeze at.

Yes, since the Future Fund has offloaded what they considered "excess", TLS may also "turn the corner" and provide some growth potential; the more the merrier. As long as the dividend keeps pace, I'll look at the parcel from both angles. If one side outweighs the usefulness of the other, I'll switch to Plan B.

Specifically replying to Julia's Q: I have been waiting for some time for TLS to "bottom out" and reverse the long-term down trend. Momentum (MACD) has shown a Bullish Divergence for about a year, suggesting last November marked THE Low; bearing in mind the short-term effect of yesterday's ex-div (add 14 or even 20c to today's Closing price) the breakout from the new rising channel looks done and dusted. (remember: if that's wrong, there's a Plan B or C, ... )

 

[notting]

TLS off loaded aging Copper network for more than it's worth to a desperate labour government before an election.
The lunatic running the future fund has finished screaming the stock down then trying to sell masses of it which was somewhat negative for the stock!!! Took it down from 4.20
The NBN is one of the worst examples of waisting tax payer money ever,Telstra stands to gain a big chunk of it's use as well as being contractually obliged to not compete too much with it on it's state of the art wireless tech!!! It gets to charge too much all over the place. Thanks Labour!
It's all about improving competition, yeah right Steve!
There is new wireless tech coming on that will mean the mobile wireless will make the NBN, largely redundant. Telstra has all the cards.
Was a cracker of a buy 2 weeks ago at 2.75 bonuses today already!
No wonder they were grinning like Cheshire cats at the annual general meeting!
Could still show weekness after yesterdays ex but once it moves after that it's moving!!!
IMO

 

[jancha]

Can you say what you believe makes it a defensive share?

Why not?


Can you explain the analysis behind your belief that it's about to have a run up?

I'm not saying you're wrong. I don't know what will happen with TLS.
Would just like to understand the reasons behind your assertions.

Julia
The reason i believe Telstra's a defensive share is in the past when the market has been volitile & uncertain Telstra doesn't seem to be effected as much as other companies. (maybe because it's one of the lowest risked companies) Example would be to go back to the GFC and compare sp fall in comparison to other companies eg. BHP and note the difference in fall %. I think off hand BHP dropped to as low as $20 from $44 where as TLS fell very little in comparison in the short term.
Telstra's drop from mid $4 was a slow continual one to where it is now but that was due to bad results not so much as the GFC at the time Would you then not call it a defensive stock?
Why now? TLS are back in positive territory with sales up. I looked at Wes Farmers when they bought Coles i noticed the difference with the lift in customers and the improvement overall in the Cole stores. Much the same with Telstra i noticed their shops of late are full whereas Optus and Vodaphone stores were basically empty. They said they would turn that side of it around and if you look at their end of the year financials they have. You can also see further reasons from other posted responses to your questions as to why.
Why $3.30? Just a prediction nothing more.

 

[notting]

I reckon 4.20 easy within 12 months for the reasons sighted above.

 

[McLovin]

I don't know why people call a rent seeking monopoly engineering company that is having to transform itself into a competitive marketing and service company a defensive stock.

 

[RandR]

There is new wireless tech coming on that will mean the mobile wireless will make the NBN, largely redundant. Telstra has all the cards.

I agree with a lot of the points you made notting, except this one


Care to provide an example of this wireless tech that will make fibre redundant ? .. and why would telstra have a monopoly on such a product ?

 

[RandR]

I don't know why people call a rent seeking monopoly engineering company that is having to transform itself into a competitive marketing and service company a defensive stock.

The transformation of Telstra as a company is interesting though isnt it ... I actually see it as a genuine future media play. Digital distribution rights for sports etc, could be a real $$$ spinner, both for sporting codes and telstra once the NBN beefs up the national bandwith. (disc: I dont hold and have no intention of holding tls atm)

 

[notting]

Care to provide an example of this wireless tech that will make fibre redundant ? .. and why would telstra have a monopoly on such a product ?

Never used the word monopoly. That's over. It is is part of the point. All that loss of monopoly is priced in already IMO. It's now however the dominant player in both wireless and fixed line NBN.
Fibre to the home is rediculous and shockingly waistefull. Fibre to the Node would have been a good thing for the country. People and indsutry could then pay to tap into it if they really wanted to and pay for it!

I actually see it as a genuine future media play. Digital distribution rights for sports etc, could be a real $$$ spinner, both for sporting codes and telstra

Yes and on top of that there's quite a thing for wireless handheld devices.

Care to provide an example of this wireless tech that will make fibre redundant ?

I am referring to fibre being redundant, I am talking NBN which is fibre to the home not fibre to the node which could have been achieved at 1/4 of the price.

This shouldn't suprise anybody who knows about the tech. It's a fast moving, developing and very valuable industry!!!

New wireless technology claims to enable download speeds up to 1000 times faster than possible on conventional wireless networks.

A TECHNOLOGY guru who has been described as the Thomas Edison of Silicon Valley claims to have developed a new wireless technology that could one day rival the download speeds on the National Broadband Network.
The new technology, called DIDO, allows internet users to access download speeds up to 1000 times faster than possible on conventional wireless networks, without any fall in speed as more users get on to the network.

I hope this helps you RanR

 

[McCoy Pauley]

Never used the word monopoly. That's over. It is is part of the point. All that loss of monopoly is priced in already IMO. It's now however the dominant player in both wireless and fixed line NBN.
Fibre to the home is rediculous and shockingly waistefull. Fibre to the Node would have been a good thing for the country. People and indsutry could then pay to tap into it if they really wanted to and pay for it!



Yes and on top of that there's quite a thing for wireless handheld devices.



I am referring to fibre being redundant, I am talking NBN which is fibre to the home not fibre to the node which could have been achieved at 1/4 of the price.

This shouldn't suprise anybody who knows about the tech. It's a fast moving, developing and very valuable industry!!!

New wireless technology claims to enable download speeds up to 1000 times faster than possible on conventional wireless networks.

A TECHNOLOGY guru who has been described as the Thomas Edison of Silicon Valley claims to have developed a new wireless technology that could one day rival the download speeds on the National Broadband Network.
The new technology, called DIDO, allows internet users to access download speeds up to 1000 times faster than possible on conventional wireless networks, without any fall in speed as more users get on to the network.

I hope this helps you RanR

Admittedly, it's been more than 10 years since I last studied physics and communications engineering, but I'm interested to read/hear about how this "guru" managed to overcome the fact that there is limited spectrum for wireless networks to use.

Having spoken to a former patents examiner a couple of years ago, if you search carefully enough and know what you're looking for, you can see multiple patents granted for what are essentially perpetual motion machines.

Colour me a sceptic, but a bite-sized quote about how a "guru" claims to have created a wireless network that overcomes the issues with increased spectrum usage won't fill me with much confidence.

 

[RandR]

Admittedly, it's been more than 10 years since I last studied physics and communications engineering, but I'm interested to read/hear about how this "guru" managed to overcome the fact that there is limited spectrum for wireless networks to use.

Having spoken to a former patents examiner a couple of years ago, if you search carefully enough and know what you're looking for, you can see multiple patents granted for what are essentially perpetual motion machines.

Colour me a sceptic, but a bite-sized quote about how a "guru" claims to have created a wireless network that overcomes the issues with increased spectrum usage won't fill me with much confidence.

I'm not in anyway a techhead so reading about it didn't actually make a world of sense to me. But if you Google 'DIDO technology' it actually does come up with a fair bit of info for both for and a couple against. But it was interesting reading.