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TLS - Telstra Corporation

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TLS continued to drop on Friday 11-03-2011. Couldn't see any new negative news to spark a sell off. The daily Depth figures have shown twice as much sell volume as buy volume all week.
The two year chart shows a continuous slide and if tls continues to follow this trend we will see new lows before too much longer. The yield might be good but the falling capital value since it went exdiv is undermining any value it held.
 

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TLS

TLS started the month of March in a bearish cycle ;- below 2.84

And now it's broken it's support levels @ 2.73 which can often extend lower
into the following Quarter, and as low as 2.48.

Minor swing pattern support next week would be 2.58, but I'm not sure
whether TLS will get back above 2.73/77 for the rest of the month.
 

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Whatever short term bullishness on TLS existed seems to have completely disappeared. The share price is now back to depths seen in November 2010 and I suspect we'll see a break below the previous bottom price of $2.55/share in the near future. That $2.58/share support level Frank mentioned in his post is now being sorely tested.
 
To be honest I believe TLS is massively cheap when you consider the next two dividend periods are going to be paid at 14c each. The possibility of the NBN is becoming more probable, customer base is turning around (mum n dad just signed up for 2 years + of bigpond...), service is now the best you can find in the telco business and another monoply (4G) will start to be rolled out by the end of the year.

So many strong fundamentals should change the SP and change Telstra's earnings.. however it has just drifted and couldn't even get into the red today. I'm very bullish on this however have been proven wrong the last few weeks. Any other incite rather than charts?
 
TLS

minor swing pattern off 2.58 and potentially back towards 2.78-2.80

Next week's trend guide is 2.68/70

What traders need to keep an eye on is the April 50% level,
and whether there is a 2nd wave down towards 2.48.

TLS is currently in a monthly breakout pattern that can often extend down into
next months lows, therefore I would treat TLS as a minor swing pattern at
this stage.

if it can get above 2.68/70
 

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Thodey announced to the market this morning that a shareholder vote on the deal with NBN Co will be delayed, notwithstanding that progress has been made on negotiating the finer points of the deal.

Unsurprising, really. It was always an ambitious target to have a shareholder vote in July 2011. I suspect that shareholders won't be asked to vote on the deal until August or September 2011 at the earliest, given the hurdles that remain to be cleared. But we might get an update in the next fortnight about the progress of negotiations, though.
 
The FF is up around the 5% level of ownership and no longer a substantial holder of Telstra. This is only good news and so the SP has risen today... hoping to be around the 2.75-80 level by next month.
 
The papers indicated that the senate pushed through some NBN legislation last night, with some hotly contested ammendments. Apparantly the lower house is to be recalled on Monday to vote the legislation into law. This must bode well for the tls timetable that has been up in the air. Hopefully, for holders, it will have more positive effect on the share price on Monday.
 

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Is this to do with the policy that TLS will be allowed to make backdoor deals with NBNco... I saw on the news yesterday Optus bitching about this... pitty for Optus...
 
BrightGreenGlow said:
Is this to do with the policy that TLS will be allowed to make backdoor deals with NBNco... I saw on the news yesterday Optus bitching about this... pitty for Optus...
Click to expand...

I read into it that NBN would be a wholesaler unable to do supply deals with anyone including telstra.
 
Telstra has seemed to be moving up and up after their low the other week.

I was hoping to get some at $2.60 but couldn't get my act together.

Reckon they might head back down that way? Currently at $2.80 and have been going up 2-4c a day for the last week or so.
 
I don't see the SP going down that much while the nbn is still on the table. Unless the FF offload all their stock soon. Either way therer won't be an announcement if they do just more selling pressure.
 
I would suggest that Tesltra is responding to the expectation that the deal with the NBN will shortly be formalised.

By the time it's announced, it may largely be factored into the share price.
 

I think the market might be pricing in some good news on the advancement of the deal between NBN Co and Telstra on the handover of the copper network. If the news doesn't come through in the next couple of weeks (as a hunch) I suspect the share price might come down again, but perhaps not to $2.60/share.

DYOR. I hold.
 
It is always a good week when the Telstra share price goes up. On Thursday there was a jump in turnover and a huge part of it went through at $2.84. The sellers built up to 9 million at $2.85 during the day and a little over 1 million went through at $2.85. Unfortunately in the closing stages of the day (particularly in the auction) there was a huge sell down pushing the closing price down to $2.82.

Turnover on Friday was very subdued in comparison with Thursday, with most trade in the range $2.80 - $2.81. Telstra held $2.81 in the close.
If there is any good news released (NBN wise) I wouldnt be surprised to see the share price testing $2.85 and above next week.
 

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I was watching the TLS action around market close on Thursday. The price at actual market close was still 2.84 but the large number of trades at 2.82 went through 10 minutes after closing. I did wonder what the hell was going on. How that can happen? Can anyone explain?
 
TLS looks to have been largely tracking the market since October last year.
SGT on the other hand has been going in the opposite direction. Is that telling something?
 

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The market closes at 4:00pm but then goes into Auction Mode where the buyers and seller are matched in a similar fashion to the opening. The auction usualy closes at 4:10pm on the dot.
 
TLS appears to be trying to break through the resistance levels arround the $2.86 mark. It is hard to work out if the resistance is the result of the Future Fund selling out or other market pressures linked to the NBN.

TLS has announce the raising of $1billion at 4.8% (or there-abouts) in the U.S. Probably another opportunity to retire debt financed at higher rates. However it is hoped thay have factored in the potential for currency revaluations impacting on the bottom line if the AUD$ returns to sub parity levels.
 

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Last week tls bounced around the range $2.80 to $2.85. A couple of times it opened arround the $2.84 level and looked like it could push higher before being slapped down to the $2.82 - $2.83 range or lower.

I am not a great chart reader, so I can't say what it means when the recent shoulder is higher than the previous shoulder or whether this weeks action is a pennant indicating the price is due to break out (up or down).

I suspect the Future Fund is continuing to reduce their holding, so I am not expecting any rally in the short term. Maybe an announcement that NBN will use Telstra to do the roll out of their cable would do the trick. Otherwise I expect more of the same, continuing sideways and downwards in what appears to be a well established channel.

Mind you, the recent low was higher than the previous low, perhaps the Elliot Wavers can advise us what it means?
 

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