Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

TLS - Telstra Corporation

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alexandro said:
But all up, very amazing what has happened to the share price past 3 days. Good work.
Click to expand...

Even more amazing what has happened in the last ten years !

Reading through some of the fundamental reasons for hanging on to the likes of Telstra convinces me that the people who use the term 'Fundamental Analysis' for their reasoning seem to base it wholly on two items...

1. stock popularity (everyone has heard of them)
2. broker recommendations/valuations (who only do so called analysis on stocks that satisfy item 1)

TLS was over $9 in 2000 (now $2.75) and MND was less than $1.00 in 2000 (now approaching $17).

The dividend yield is only 5% though on MND :rolleyes:

That's the difference between actual fundamentals and the sum total of items 1 and 2.

My :2twocents
 
I stayed away because of fundamental analysis. My post was woof - see first page.

There is no growth so you are relying completely on dividends.

Unless you are retired or a super fund, I can't see any case for buying Telstra at these levels. I might reconsider below $2 if I feel they can keep market share, can't see that at the moment though.
 
TLS:-

Breakout pattern @ 2.73, as per previous post.

First target reached @ 2.87 (#A)

however, profit objectives are based using the December highs (unknown as yet # C)

or....

any further gains during the current month can be as
high @ 3.26 (whilst above 2.87 # B)
 

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Gap fill today too :)

Might get a quick pullback?

TLS has a LOT of work to do to get back up and fill the rest of the gaps lol
 

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I hauled in $110,000 with 500,000 shares at 2.66 so I am happy:). I had a feeling they were way undervalued at 2.60. Tonight I am out spending the cash.
 
Not really, the copper cables are quite small and the labour to witdraw them, get rid of insulation and transport them would take up most of the profit.
 
Hurry up and split TLS and let the NBN building begins.

My research tell me NBN will be the best thing that happen to Telstra in
this environment.

TLS fixed broadband customers has been steady for years now, no growth here so a fix NBN wont do too much damage to Telstra.

On the other hand wireless data and broadband explode at a crazy pace

What Telstra working on is the wireless network that will beat NBN in term of price and service... people don't want mega fast broadband people want decent speed and convenient

see the investment they spend on wireless and it paid off
it performance far far exceeding its peers..

last time I check (last week) data on an iPhone/iPad Telstra network speed is close to 10 times faster than Vofadone and I say Optus is on the same par as Vodafone

so sell NBN a whole bunch of useless Coppers a customer based that has no growth, get a nice $14B for it ..very nice ...

Good war chest to build world class wireless network and let the cash roll in again and customers decide whether they want cheap and convenient of wireless or mega fast, mega expensive NBN :)

hang in there if you buy them around 2.64 - 2.95 there is very little down side but a lot of upside to this baby :)

It is always darkest before dawn :D
 
ill quote myself from 4 pages back...28 Sept

So_Cynical said:
Agree



You me and everyone else spends more on telecommunications...in 13 years the pie has grown alot, while Telstra's share has remained static, however the ingredients of the pie have been changing... internet and mobile has significantly grown at the expense of PSTN...Telstra was always going to lose that fixed line revenue because it was there's to lose, so no surprises there.

One positive with Telstra is that they have been able to maintain total revenue while in transition from one dominating revenue stream to another, unfortunately and unavoidably they have taken on debt to build the best mobile network in the country, and its a given the dividend is unsustainable at current levels.

I cant help but think that for someone looking at Telstra for the first time (an outsider) could possibly see some potential for a bottom and a contrarian, great turn around story in the making....a Telco giant on the brink of a comeback.

Apparently, according to a recent thread...there's some money to be made being contrarian. ;)
Click to expand...

Yet another bottom picked by me and not brought...very annoying.
 
ROE said:
Hurry up and split TLS and let the NBN building begins.

My research tell me NBN will be the best thing that happen to Telstra in
this environment.

TLS fixed broadband customers has been steady for years now, no growth here so a fix NBN wont do too much damage to Telstra.

On the other hand wireless data and broadband explode at a crazy pace

What Telstra working on is the wireless network that will beat NBN in term of price and service... people don't want mega fast broadband people want decent speed and convenient

see the investment they spend on wireless and it paid off
it performance far far exceeding its peers..

last time I check (last week) data on an iPhone/iPad Telstra network speed is close to 10 times faster than Vofadone and I say Optus is on the same par as Vodafone

so sell NBN a whole bunch of useless Coppers a customer based that has no growth, get a nice $14B for it ..very nice ...

Good war chest to build world class wireless network and let the cash roll in again and customers decide whether they want cheap and convenient of wireless or mega fast, mega expensive NBN :)

hang in there if you buy them around 2.64 - 2.95 there is very little down side but a lot of upside to this baby :)

It is always darkest before dawn :D
Click to expand...


Nice post ROE. I agree with the upside. Telstra cashed up will have the financial clout to compete on any level with the other players and have the capital foundation to outlast the others in any drawn out price war. In My Opinion.

Re...."TLS fixed broadband customers has been steady for years now, no growth here so a fix NBN wont do too much damage to Telstra"....I thought I read that Telstra kept the fixed broadband customers? The security of fixed line connection for internet over wireless will see fixed arround for a long time to come. IMO.
 
BrightGreenGlow said:
100% agree with you ROE. Wireless is the future and Telstra is samshing the market to pieces. No one has come or will come close. :) :2twocents
Click to expand...

I am a heavy user of wireless and I can tell you telstra network put everyone else to shame except the price... If they can price them correctly people will move to telstra I can say that with certainty...the network is too good and they can command a premium but not an outrageous one as in the previous years

I used to have vodafone and three and gave up on them, coverage just crab with data and can't get decent speed out of them

What do I have for wireless data...? 2 iPhone 2 iPads and a portable wireless broadband for my laptop.

Post on my iPad -:)
 
ROE said:
Hurry up and split TLS and let the NBN building begins.

My research tell me NBN will be the best thing that happen to Telstra in
this environment.

hang in there if you buy them around 2.64 - 2.95 there is very little down side but a lot of upside to this baby :)
Click to expand...

Agree, Telstra and high users of pr0n will be the only winners out of the NBN

But,

Telstra has an internal time line for the split out around 5-9 years!! It aint gonna happen over night.

But the BIGGEST problem aint the Gov wrecking their biz or the ACCC or fixed line decline or insert the usual, customer service etc etc. Its the friggin management. They are destroyers of good will, innovation and efficiency. In a technology company!!! :eek: The senior management has been the same monkeys in control of the above complaints for 10 years. The problems aren't getting fixed because the management is the same.

Have a look at how many gun innovation/customer service/biz change leaders they bring from other companies every few months just under the group management level. And watch how quickly these dudes take off once they see how impossible it is to get anything done at Telstra. The culture is toxic to innovation and change..... for a consumer Tech company..... lol

Share holders are buying the management as well as the infrastructure. Arn't you fundies worried about that?? I thought it was only the dumb techies that ignored that stuff.
 
Oh well I haven't posted for a while on my worst performing share, so here goes.
The N.B.N is definitely the best outcome for Telstra as stated above. The real isssue now as I see it is the amount of shares on issue. Ongoing cash flows will be difficult to maintain on an earnings per share basis when they loose the high margin users on fixed line, this was going to happen anyway. I hope Telstra uses a lot of the money they get to do a buy back thereby reducing the shares on issue. As for the business they are in a stronger position now than they were pre N.B.N, they still own the backbone infrastructure and N.B.N rent it providing ongoing income. As stated above they have the best mobile network by a long way and now they are just another service provider the ACCC should get off their backs. The opposition providers are using an overloaded system and their speeds are getting slower and require a major capital spend Optus will have to pass on this cost to the second line carriers.
So even though generally, one would think, telstras income will drop it may not be as major as people think and if their are less shares on issue the earnings per share should be maintained.
Well thats what I am hoping on.
 
Trembling Hand said:
Agree, Telstra and high users of pr0n will be the only winners out of the NBN

The problems aren't getting fixed because the management is the same.

Have a look at how many gun innovation/customer service/biz change leaders they bring from other companies every few months just under the group management level. And watch how quickly these dudes take off once they see how impossible it is to get anything done at Telstra. The culture is toxic to innovation and change..... for a consumer Tech company..... lol

Share holders are buying the management as well as the infrastructure. Arn't you fundies worried about that?? I thought it was only the dumb techies that ignored that stuff.
Click to expand...


Roger Montgomery stated his fundamental valuation on TLS as $2.36 a few weeks ago.

I agree with TH comments on management.

Not sure whether mainstream (not pr0n) users will need/be prepared to pay, for the speed and volume of high-volume data dowload, like T-box etc.

Someone must think they are

I can foresee that it would be totally feasible for users to have downloads in the Terabytes per month if the pace of digitilyzed entertainment and work is maintained.

I am of the opinion that would be difficult to manage with wireless
 
The idea that people are going to download movies as opposed to going to a video store is a bit like saying Libaries are going to shut down because people can download a book or supermarkets are going to be replaced by online shopping. People still like to browse before they buy and going through screen after screen to find a movie rather than walking down an aisle and glancing at covers, I think is a long way off.
To rent a DVD costs $1-$3 and if you don't feel like it or there is something decent on free to air(that would be novel) you don't spend it. With the high speed broad band you would have to be a real movie buff if you are going to pay the line rental just to download movies. I think the consumer will still migrate to mobile phone and wireless for mobility and convienience. As things get tighter in consumer land people will become more decerning about what they spend on andd at present mobile phones are a fashion statement and a must have for the younger generation.
 
awg said:
I can foresee that it would be totally feasible for users to have downloads in the Terabytes per month if the pace of digitilyzed entertainment and work is maintained.

I am of the opinion that would be difficult to manage with wireless
Click to expand...

This population is very small, the vast majority of people using internet for paying bills, surf the web, online shopping, ebay and a host of other information related tasks that require little bandwidth.... decent speed and coverage is more important here than raw speed and mega download quota...

So they pay for convenient access to the internet rather than top speed and Terrabyte of data

I got fix broadband I also has wireless data on iPhone and iPad and Portable Wireless for laptop.. I pay more for my wireless all together with hell of a lot less data quota and frankly I don't need a lot for the things I want to do....

I want coverage and network performance so I can access any where any time...

Buy a block of shares while I'm on holiday in QLD some where
Pay bills, check local eat out places, look up business phone number in the car etc...

I can see the day people download their movies and do all sort of hungry bandwidth stuff and fixed broadband is fine for that but wireless can serve as a compliment for fix lines , for people on the road as well as fixed line replacement for those that are not into activities that required very very large download quota...

Enough of this debate, time to pack and go on a long holiday and let the market take care of itself have a safe xmas people :D
 

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