Well I don't think that Thodey is the same "bad" management that Sol may have been, the current media coverage shows that he is taking a major run at improving customer service, whilst also beginning to squeeze the competition on cost - see their quick change in smart phone plans.
They also have the hardware that Australia will need in the future, like it or not, and very big corporate muscle, so it is quite questionable to label TLS a company that is just rubbish and finished and going down the drain.
Although they have not performed and are losing market share, this does not change the underlying fact that they are tesltra, not Optus or 3; that is a big difference...I have friends who have recently moved back to TLS for their service recently, I wonder if this is reflected in their churn over the coming quarters?
exactly right. in the past 6 months telstra has released more compedative mobilephone, mobile Internet, and fixed broadband plans. With the fixed broadband and foxtel bundles, I think things are moving in the right direction.
happy to say I'm in today at 2.8
making me a shareholder, as well as an employee and customer of telstra.
working in a marketing and sales type of position Im happy to say I have finally put my money where my mouth is lol.
Malachii you may not own Tls shares now but you certainly seem to have been burnt from them in the past.
Sol was a biggest set back for Telstra & he's gone now.
I have faith in the management and what they can deliver.
I look for a company like Telstra where it's been dogged in the past & has the ability to gain back customers and revenue.
Huntleys last analyst was the 16th of August 2010 with a fair value of $3.60.
I suppose you could find better returns in other companies but if there were double dip with GFC Telstra shares would be least affected as it has been in the past. Each to their own.
Well if they can keep there balance sheet looking nice (as it is at present) for another half, i value the company at 3.30-3.50 depending on the NROE
remember it only dropped below 3.00 after some bad earning results in Feb
So it's unreasonable to buy a stock with the expectation that the SP will rise?
Yes, I suppose if you have no expectations of making a capital profit, you're not going to be so disappointed when the SP falls.
Sorry, ROE, but - unless you're taking a very, very long term view (and even that's suspect under the present circumstances) - that's a pretty hard sell imo.
Long term bonds are a very poor investment at present. But why limit the comparison of buying TLS to just bonds?
I'm currently getting 8% on a term deposit, certainly no chance of capital gain, but in the current market, having no risk of capital loss feels pretty good to me.
So why wouldn't you in the meantime put your funds into something with more security, or if choosing shares, a company with a more optimistic outlook regarding rising SP?
To suggest this is personal and that I am bagging TLS "because I was burnt" is dodging the facts. I have made no dispersion on any persons comments - just asked for some facts to back up predictions/expectations. And I am still waiting!
Other than last week for a period from Fri 13/8/2010 to Mon 16/8/2010 I haven't owned TLS since it first floated (2 Trades - bought 2 parcels of 10 000 @ $2.90 and sold 10 000 @$2.91 and 10 000 @ $2.95). I bought in on the inital T1 float and sold about 8 months later (for a profit) so I have never been "burnt" by it.
TLS managment has been there for years and have done nothing but run it into the ground. You can bag Sol but at least he tried something. It didn't work but he did try. The current managment has been promoted from within and have done nothing. Thodey has been there is 2001 (2009 as ceo). Stanhope has been there since 1967. How much time do they want? What are they doing differently? When do they expect the changes to take effect? Even their outlook for the company is enemic! Why would you place any more faith (and $$$) in them?
They are not predicting an overall increase in customers nor revenue as far as I can see in their report.
There is NO evidence that TLS would not be hit less or more than any other company with a double dip. When revenues fell in 2008/2009 they blamed the GFC. Why would GFC 2 be any different?
Huntleys released a report back in late may that had a $3.60 target so maybe they are rehashing reports.
I am not critisizing you or anyone else for holding TLS. I cannot make an investment case for them but that does not mean I am not wrong. My main concern with the company is really that they should have a basically bullet proof company but dont seem to be able to "get it together". I am, and have been, looking for evidence to the contrary - but cannot find it. If you can show me then please do. I am always willing to be corrected by facts but not beaten over the head by emotions.
Facts are they are the leading telecommunications service with the ability to turn things around.
At least Sol tried something different? What a Joke!! Going logger head with the government?
The new billing system?
How many people had billing mistakes?
Telstras customer service would've been run off their feet and would have only heard from customers that were short changed not the ones that were in credit. A shamble and waste of share holders money.
I'd hate to think how much revenue was lost over it!
Anyway to fix something like that doesn't happen over night.
You obviously dont think they can gain customers back and thats basically what it all comes down to.
If you want to stick to facts dont assume that Huntleys are rehashing from May report with latest report dated 16/08/2010.
Yep, I doubt the different points of view here are going to be resolved.Can we agree to disagree. You think this stock is a bargain and I dont. Lets leave it at that and allow the discussion to continue.
malachii
Yep, I doubt the different points of view here are going to be resolved.
Largely it seems to depend on whether you buy and sell based on fundamentals or price action. I have no idea about the fundamentals, but wouldn't touch it just on what the price action shows regarding market sentiment overall to TLS.
Re Huntleys: they mostly take the FA approach. If you look at some of their results they sometimes don't even match the index. Each to his own, of course, but I wouldn't be regarding Huntleys as any sort of bible for investment guidance. Do enjoy Ian Huntley's general political commentary though.
ROE, good luck with TLS. I hope it turns around and starts to make you some money.
My point was simply that there are much better companies out there actually showing a rising SP, even in these difficult times.
.I forgot to mention, Congratulations ROE, picking them at $2.92 was a winner.
Even if Liberal win the election my guess is they will continue on with the NBN. Business and government require a secure network, wireless doesn't provide it and Telstra was being shafted to have to provide it(with the copper network)at the shareholders expense.
With the NBN the Government will be supplying the secure infrastructure that is required(as it should be) not the Telstra shareholder.
Telstra will be leasing out it's exchanges and infrastructure to the government to provide the secure service. Telstra will then be able to compete with the other users eg Optus, to supply retail services at competitive prices with a much better and far reaching wireless network.
I can only see upside for Telstra with the burden of the Universal Service Obligation being lifted and the dying copper network being taken over by the Government, leaving Telstra with the best wireless network and leasing it's infrastructure for ongoing income. $h!t it has been a long time coming but maybe the outcome will have been a torturous but excellent result.
Sorry, sptrawler, I doubt you'll find it now. I have that for a five year term with SUN who were not advertising it, but who happily agreed when I asked them to match what Westpac were offering about six months ago. Even then, it was a high rate, and obviously only applied from those banks who were anxious to shore up deposits at the time..
By the way Julia can you let me know where I can pick up 8% on cash.
Show me the last earnings results that didn't cause a drop. It has been dropping after earnings results almost consistently since it was $9 something.
malachii
Well that is kinda my point..
30/06/2010 IS the first time we have not seen a decent drop that satys down after a new balance sheet: close at 3.25 ,carried on for 40 days then election faf, has beaten it with a stick.
As per usual Julia, you are moving on light feet, while I plod on. 8% for 5 years when the market is treading water is a good move, especially in a low tax vehicle.
As per usual Julia, you are moving on light feet, while I plod on. 8% for 5 years when the market is treading water is a good move, especially in a low tax vehicle.
john, if you'd read sptrawler's post properly you'd note his reference to a low tax vehicle. If the interest is earned in a SMSF in pension phase there is no tax paid. Obviously, also, someone in such a tax environment is unlikely to still be employed at $100K+.Are you being sarcastic Sptrawler? As anyone would know on a good wage $100k+ that bank interest is crap due to the tax. Unless you have houses to rent I guess.
Hah! That's what thousands of investors said as they hung onto their ABC Learning, and various other downtrending companies, while they watched them disappear to nothing. Not saying that will happen with TLS, of course, but to say anything can't fall further is a bit like saying you bought something because you HOPE it will come right.Anyways.. who is thinking of buying TLS now? $2.77 screams cheap. Surely it wouldn't dive much further?? or... ???
john, if you'd read sptrawler's post properly you'd note his reference to a low tax vehicle. If the interest is earned in a SMSF in pension phase there is no tax paid. Obviously, also, someone in such a tax environment is unlikely to still be employed at $100K+.
Hah! That's what thousands of investors said as they hung onto their ABC Learning, and various other downtrending companies, while they watched them disappear to nothing. Not saying that will happen with TLS, of course, but to say anything can't fall further is a bit like saying you bought something because you HOPE it will come right.
Are you being sarcastic Sptrawler? As anyone would know on a good wage $100k+ that bank interest is crap due to the tax. Unless you have houses to rent I guess.
Anyways.. who is thinking of buying TLS now? $2.77 screams cheap. Surely it wouldn't dive much further?? or... ???
Ahh so ur retired Julia? 8% is alll good thenI guess i mean TLS is worth far more than where it is at the moment, its all this government uncertainty.
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