TLS - Telstra Corporation

[nunthewiser]

For what its worth . stopped out of TLS .... the bishop reckons sheet happens and lives to trade another day

good luck to holders .

was a low % loss on stoploss point set out b4 entry

could be wroing and stopped out to early but thats the way the cookie crumbles

 

[nomore4s]

Massive volumes in the last 2-3 days and today has already done over 120 million and rebounded off todays lows after that ann. Looks like someone with deep pockets thinks TLS could be good value at $3.00.

This volume has brought an abrupt halt the the downward slide, could be worth a punt for a bounce to $3.40ish?

 

[nunthewiser]

Massive volumes in the last 2-3 days and today has already done over 120 million and rebounded off todays lows after that ann. Looks like someone with deep pockets thinks TLS could be good value at $3.00.

This volume has brought an abrupt halt the the downward slide, could be worth a punt for a bounce to $3.40ish?

Probably m8 .... certainly holding well after that news ........ oh well ya get that , i could always renter . murphys law applys to me on this one i think . IF i,d kept beyond stop point it would have continued falling but because i stuck to plan and stopped out .its bound to fly

 

[Sean K]

Massive volumes in the last 2-3 days and today has already done over 120 million and rebounded off todays lows after that ann. Looks like someone with deep pockets thinks TLS could be good value at $3.00.

This volume has brought an abrupt halt the the downward slide, could be worth a punt for a bounce to $3.40ish?

Candle is looking pretty good for today at the moment. If it finishes above $3.00 will be a trigger for me to grab the knife. Love bloody hands!

 

[vincent191]

I sure hope you guys are right. I am holding on by my finger nails.

I cannot understand ACCC's action. What is wrong with a Company trying to protect it's assets by excluding the competition from accessing it's copper network.

The government tends to forget TLS id no longer belongs to the government. It now belongs to it's shareholders, we bought it off the government. So the shareholders are quite entitled to block others from accessing it's network to protect TLS's interest.

 

[Nero64]

Trying to make sense of Telstra's latest 1/2 year report.

16 B in Net debt
28 B in captial
58% Gearing
1 Bill in Div payouts last year
40 B in assets
909 M in cash
A2 rating negative growth by Moodys

That's quite a bit of debt but it's financials aren't that bad.

Stuff the National broadband deal, it owns the network. If it says somthing you do it. It can bend Optus/Singtel, AAPT, and NZ telecom like a plastic rod.

I work in IT/Telecommunications and this company is the ocean and the rest are pissing in its pond. Excuse the French.

I'm looking to buy Telstra. Not yet though. People are getting out in droves. Remember Wesfarmers and Westfield. These companies are off there lows and they have worse balance sheets.

Be paitient and wait.

 

[tommymac]

I cannot understand ACCC's action. What is wrong with a Company trying to protect it's assets by excluding the competition from accessing it's copper network.

The government tends to forget TLS id no longer belongs to the government. It now belongs to it's shareholders, we bought it off the government. So the shareholders are quite entitled to block others from accessing it's network to protect TLS's interest.

The Howard Govt made the mistake in the first place by selling the infrastructure. Everyone knew that TLS was a monopoly and ACCC cannot allow a monopoly if it is not in the best interests of competition and consumers.

Therefore TLS are actually not entitled to block others from accessing the network if it prevents competition.

I say split the company and then I may look at buying into TLS Infrastructure.

 

[brianwh]

Something that seems to be missing in the analyses on this thread is the "Conroy factor". Our 2 previous ministers seemed driven by idealogy and sometimes pettiness and generally didn't seem up to addressing the issues associated with telecommunications. But Conroy seems to be taking this to a new level. He is coming across as a vengeful apparatchik schooled in the factional tribal infighting that so defines Labour Party processes. My fear is that the NBN decision will be as much driven by a determination to show TLS who is boss as it will be to produce a modern world standard telecommunications system available all Australians. If this means destroying the value of holdings of 1.4 million shareholders (including the Govt), well tough!

 

[Sean K]

Price action encouraging last Friday, but didn't drag me in. Watching for support this morning to make a call on short term trade off it's potentially oversold condition. Could be a reversal signal on the longer term chart. If it does bounce, I can only guess at a potential 50c gain to that significant resistance at $3.50. No other signals that I can see. Stop under $3.00 I suppose.

 

[Sean K]

Price action encouraging last Friday, but didn't drag me in. Watching for support this morning to make a call on short term trade off it's potentially oversold condition. Could be a reversal signal on the longer term chart. If it does bounce, I can only guess at a potential 50c gain to that significant resistance at $3.50. No other signals that I can see. Stop under $3.00 I suppose.

I failed to mention that gap at $3.30 ish and Dec low which will also be a problem I think. If it does head up, expect a pause there. I'm in for a short term trade, finger on the sell button at break down $2.90. Finger on the buymore button on break through $3.80.

 

[shag]

talking of telstra, i was talking to a mate who worked for them or such yesterday, hes a top elec enger(enginer).
he said it would be sad if telstra got broken like telecom nz, as its a great place to cruise, and get fat(doing nothing apparently).
i think hes eyeing up the future, when all he needs is a desk and job title as an excuse to leave the wife and kids for a while...

 

[Sean K]

Fingers clean so far.

But gloves still on.

I've got no idea what the volume really means but I hope that it's exhaustion of sellers and then a lack of sellers which is causing this short term support.

I still hold hope for the bounce to make $3.50 but I usually have no idea. Happy for an EW'er or a funnymentalist to provide some analysis...

All I can do is have a stop and think that it's oversold..... eeeek

 

[nomore4s]

Kennas I've moved the stop on my trade up to $3.09 now, so well above b/e. I risk getting stopped out early but it was only a short term trade anyway.

I think a break above $3.20 may see prices run a bit, but atm I can't see $3.50 being breached without some sort of retracement. I already have an order to sell in at $3.45 but may move it if the price action is strong above $3.20.

 

[nunthewiser]

yeah well traded guys ........ in hindsight the bishop reckons his stops were too tight on his entry but hey thats how it goes ... was an entry with a low% loss on stopoints .......

well done anyways

 

[nomore4s]

Nun probably more to do with the timing of the trade than the stops imo - in a day or so early. With this sort of play you need to keep the stops tight. I just got lucky with my entry.

 

[Muschu]

TLS can be curious to try to follow. Maybe someone out there has a resaon / theory why TLS drops from around $3.28 to $3.04 [as of now] in about 6 days - and in an up market. People looking for better growth elsewhere?

 

[Sean K]

TLS can be curious to try to follow. Maybe someone out there has a resaon / theory why TLS drops from around $3.28 to $3.04 [as of now] in about 6 days - and in an up market. People looking for better growth elsewhere?

Punters moving out of the 'save havens' maybe, or that they are going to lose some contract worth a few quid. I bought the knife and it's about to start bleeding, so time to put a bandage on it, for me maybe.

 

[oremo]

As you said Kennas, is there some huge contract they may lose or something something else under the bonnet?

Beats me

John Stanhope delivered an address to the Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong last week,

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20090326/pdf/00939597.pdf

The address outlined clear goals. Understated income and produced a number of worst possible scenarios. TLS still looks good long and very much undervalued. Even if you underestimate the dividend it still looks good.

Does anyone out there REALLY know?

Anyone out there who can offer unemotional feedback?

Please note the word "unemotional".

Give me facts not fears or emotions or "gut feelings"

I upped the ante today at $3.03. Based my decision on available and provable FACTS!

Cheers

 

[prawn_86]

Give me facts not fears or emotions or "gut feelings"

I upped the ante today at $3.03. Based my decision on available and provable FACTS!

Thats the problem, the stockmarket is a leading indicator, so it will price in what it thinks will happen to the stock in the future.

If you are buying now only based on facts and not forecasting in anyway then you are behind the curve imo

 

[oremo]

I hear what you're saying about the market dictating the value prawn_86.

I've looked at the stockmarket and it's indications. Felt like I was in a TAB looking at the horse prices up on the screen and reading the tipters comments on the newspapers pasted on the walls before laying a bet

I understand that point of view if one is a trader. Traders have a short-term mentality. That's not a criticism. It's the nature of the craft. Simple buy & flip. Great if you're good at it.

My argument is.....what the stockmarket thinks is only belief...not entirely based on numbers and facts. It's fear, suspicion, scepticism, mass hysteria and, coming to a stockmarket near you real soon,....optimism.

I have forecasted TLS's great current value based on facts. Not the stockmarket. Only thing I refer to on the stockmarket is the current price. That's why I bought again.

What is the REAL VALUE? That's the question

Cold, level-headed facts should win the day - long term.

Am I missing something? Illuminate me.......please.

Cheers