TLS - Telstra Corporation

[ROE]

Financial bloke from Com Sec said today, analysts expect good results from Telstra at their February meeting next month, hence reason for the price hike.

There must be more to it than what we all know.

Dont forget this 1st/2nd Q maybe good because it's leading up to XMAS sale, next few quarter maybe crab.

 

[ROE]

What should T3 shares realistically be priced at?

I am thinking of selling up as telecommunications stocks have had a good run and believe market is due for a correction in these sorts of stocks.

On the other hand the government will be getting a heap back in tax.... so I dont know whats worth doing...

Hold long long term...

or take profits...

Tax shouldnt be an issue when you make a big profit...
Imagine this you have 45% gain on TLS, you think the stock is over price and dont sell because you afraid of paying tax.

Stock trade down to previous level then then went back again

had you sell at 45% gain, you pay your tax, pick the stock up again when they are low, you make a decent return.

 

[TheRage]

Hi All,

I believe 3 things are happening with this stock:

1) Yield driven funds, TLSCA is expected to pay 14c which at current price is 4.8% + Franked divs = 6.25. This yield is at the top of the table and is above usual yield-stocks like banks. So Imputation funds which are looming these days are just racing to get in.

2) Why people keeps thinking that TLS is only about land lines?, they have more than one revenue stream and remember that even if that one is getting less revenue it will stop where the other ISPs and customers use the service.

3) From the beginning I thought the goverment was giving away TLSCA at these price and that was the main reason to invest in it. TLS book value is $2, so installments were sold at book price.

WBII

Firstly I don't buy on yield only. I agree that Managed funds may do so and that is their perogative but hardly a reason for me to consider investing in the company.

Secondly I agree that Line Rental isn't the only revenue component but perhaps a large one. Until we know whether this will be fixed under ACC how can you accurately forecast future earnings growth. To me this puts a lot of risk into this stock. Once this issue is resolved I may infact buy into Telstra if the decision is favourable. God knows I may have to offset the increase line charge that could occur if there was no regulation. I can certainly see why WBII you might like this company. It comes across as a monopoly has plenty of free cash flow etc. But to me the unkowns outweigh the positives. Share price is being driven up on greed not a fundamental shift in the companies earnings.

BTW well done to those who bought into T3.

 

[Buster]

Hey nomore4,

Big day for TLS, especially TLSCA. Could be pushing that $4.50 shortly

Kenna's has also been calling this in for a little while now.. seems there is some support from the insto's/analysts.. Good work fella's

Credit Suisse this week increased its price target for Telstra from $4.78 a share to $5.05.

MMC Asset Management's portfolio manager, Eric Metanomski, agreed the stock had benefited as brokers and institutional investors, who had previously been bearish about its fortunes, had changed their sentiment.

"These sorts of significant moves in stocks tend to occur when there is a fairly significant sentiment change," said Mr Metanomski, whose firm has about 7 per cent of its $600 million in funds under management invested in Telstra.

Full article here.. http://www.theage.com.au/news/busin...big-oneday-jump/2007/01/16/1168709754491.html

I like ROE's comment below..

I say keep dancing with T3 but stay close to the exit..and when you spot the first sight of downward movement I head for the exit.

Seems to have shot out of the barriers, I guess it's fairly obvious that there is some good news to be announced that I as a mug am not yet privy to.. My 'portfolio' is a little TLS heavy at the minute so I will be looking to 'unwind' around the $5 mark if it gets there..

Cheers,

Buster

P.S I Hold..

 

[Sean K]

I think this could be benefiting from funds rejigging their portfolios taking some money out of the resource/materials sector and into yield plays.

 

[Warren Buffet II]

I say keep dancing with T3 but stay close to the exit..and when you spot the first sight of downward movement I head for the exit.

I don't think so. There are huge incentives to keep the installments until the end and get the bonus shares which for example for a person that invest $10,000 = 5000 shares means 200 free shares, at current prices that means
200 X 4.38 = $876 or 8.76% return.

Current 50% is a big return, but I will wait and collect the didvs which for the example above will be something like:
14c in March, 14c in Sep, 14c in March/08 = 0.42c
= 5000 * 0.42 = $2100 = 21% before franked divds or
= 5000 * 0.42 = $2100 * 1.3 = $2730 = 27.30% after franked divds.

So in the case that this 50% gain stays, people will get a total return in the top side of
8.76% + 27.30% + 50% = 86.06%

So, I'll take the risk and keep them

WBII

 

[nomore4s]

If they end up having this wonderful result I will be wondering where the profit upgrade went to as an ASX announcement and I think ACC might be thinking the same thing.

I heard on the late night news last night that there is speculation that Telstra is going to annouce a profit upgrade shortly. I'm not sure how accurate this is - you can't belive everything you see on TV.

But it maybe some of the driving force behind the increasing sp.

Again I'm fairly new at this game so, don't take my word for it.

 

[Sean K]

TLS rapidy approaching my first price target of $4.50 - perhaps too rapid. Has just gone outside the BB to the up, which puts it as a short term sell. Perhaps this, linked to the $4.50 resistance, might make it pause for a moment. There is going to be lots of static between $4.50 and $5.00 by the look of the chart. There was lots of buying and selling in there in the past, and perhaps some punters will be taking profits (or break evens!)

Interesting to read the theories on why this has run so hard. Could have just been technical buying after the clear break through $4.00, or reweighting of portfolios into 'safer' stocks that won't halve during a commodities led correction perhaps....or, Maybe Sol has changed it around. Perhaps Phil B has talked his Mum into buying some, and she's the cause?

 

[TheRage]

Perhaps Phil B has talked his Mum into buying some, and she's the cause?

Don't forget the cabbie down the street. I had a fella who drove me home from the car group who I get my car serviced with the other day say to me "how about those Telstra shares". It seems even the general punters are keen on TLS.

 

[louie]

I heard on the late night news last night that there is speculation that Telstra is going to annouce a profit upgrade shortly. I'm not sure how accurate this is - you can't belive everything you see on TV.

But it maybe some of the driving force behind the increasing sp.

Another reason could be a quote from this mornings paper.

"Rumours of a possible property spin-off of the company's old switching stations also lifted sentiment."

A senior trader at a major European brokerage said: "It could potentially be worth quite a bit because they have 6700 of these properties at about 400 square metres each, scattered throughout Australia."


If thats the case, the Telstra business might be so, so.
But these Telstra properties would be worth squillions.
.

 

[UMike]

I don't think so. There are huge incentives to keep the installments until the end and get the bonus shares which for example for a person that invest $10,000 = 5000 shares means 200 free shares, at current prices that means
200 X 4.38 = $876 or 8.76% return.
....
So, I'll take the risk and keep them
WBII

I'm shooting for the bonus shares also.

 

[Ken]

brokers are bullish on Telstra, and thats not such agood thing.

look at BHP when brokers thought they were going to boom.

hows that $35 price target looking....

having said that, the government is making up for the reduced telstra price sale with all the capital gains they are getting.

 

[ROE]

brokers are bullish on Telstra, and thats not such agood thing.

look at BHP when brokers thought they were going to boom.

hows that $35 price target looking....

having said that, the government is making up for the reduced telstra price sale with all the capital gains they are getting.

The higher they praise the harder they fall, if earning fall below expected 26 cents this year hmm wouldnt imagine the share price.

 

[Warren Buffet II]

The higher they praise the harder they fall, if earning fall below expected 26 cents this year hmm wouldnt imagine the share price.

I can see you didn't buy any T3 shares and you are bitting yourself for that.
Just let us enjoy the ride for those who did.

In a positive note:
50% reached today. I think we might see another 10c before ex-divds day.

WBII

 

[ROE]

I can see you didn't buy any T3 shares and you are bitting yourself for that.
Just let us enjoy the ride for those who did.

In a positive note:
50% reached today. I think we might see another 10c before ex-divds day.

WBII

You didnt read my earlier post I bought T3 but sold out already because this baby will drop again and I pick up again for cheap and pocket the profit differences.

 

[ROE]

any prediction for TLS this week?
North or South?

 

[Sean K]

any prediction for TLS this week?
North or South?

Or sideways....

I expect consolidation just under $4.50. Not sure when their market update is due, but I think that will have a significant impact on the company up or down. If Sol delivers an upbeat assessment after talking the company down for so long then it'll be looking very good. This might have been part of their tactics all along. Bag the crap out of it, drive the price down, then talk it up as a turn around story due to the review and changes they put in place..... Cynical kennas.

 

[ROE]

Signs of a desperate TLS

I got a bill today from TLS after disconnecting all services from
Telstra for the last 4 years saying I applied for a suppress number and residential address and charge me $32 for it.

I called them up and said i'm not paying a cent, they pass the bucks back to my provider who I bundle the phone and everything with. I rang them back and said they never do such a thing and any Bill sent out by Telstra is Telstra problem and any charge I incur with my phone line will be bill my my provide and not Telstra

so I rang Telstra again and confront them and again passing the bucks to my provider, at this stage I'm pretty pissed and ask my provider to send me an official letter stating their claims, arm with that information I came back to Telstra and guess what the bastard back down and cancel my charges.

When tactic like this apply to a big business like Telstra, they are in desperate need of a few bucks from their customer to maintain their revenues. (and in the process driven their customers else where and lose future revenues)

I thought I'm the odd one out but I am not a few guys at work has the same problem with different billing matters which they up charge for something they didnt apply for.

Time for me to avoid Telstra shares unless they selling at book value

 

[Warren Buffet II]

Well, I was with another provider and I passed all my services to Telstra 2 months ago. I got good service and happy with them.

WBII

 

[ROE]

Guess Investors doesnt like TLS when they take ACCC to court.
Big drop today on T3 today or some smart investor take their profit and buy back when it's at bargain basement price.