TLS - Telstra Corporation

[cutz]

It would normally seem prudent to await at least 6 month new highs, and bullish action above, at least, a very long period moving average.

Hey Newt ,

What's the point of waiting till its trading above it's very long period moving average, by then there won't be much left to give ?

The way I see it the stock price is sitting on support that's been established for quite a while.

 

[Newt]

Hi cutz

You're quite right - for an ASX20 stock there is so much inertia that small cap price momentum trading may not apply. I was mainly seeking to show there are many possible interpretations on what might happen, and TA traders are generally more concerned setting entry/exit/risk margins than predicting.

Your interpretation may well be correct. Only time will tell of course, and any new trade could benefit from specifying what criteria will constitute confirmation of a rebound off resistance and where the stop loss should be.

 

[Boggo]

Follow on from this post...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1088089/

So far it's got to one cent of the software prediction and ahead of time (lateral movement) which TLS seems to do.
I'm still not seeing anything positive in it's behaviour at the moment and I wouldn't be surprised to see it move into the sub $2.80 area, not advice, just my

Current weekly chart, click to expand.

 

[Boggo]

Just another annoying TLS EW post, and just my opinion

It closed on the predicted $2.82 yesterday.
I'm still not seeing anything positive in it's behaviour and wondering if the current pattern may not yet be complete ?.

(click to expand)

 

[Knobby22]

I haven't looked at Telstra for years but I was aware they were getting good income from NBN roll-out, (selling their final wires to home, allowing some use of their infrastructure). Now that work is finished it has to reduce their profits long term.

Not a company that shouts buy me.

 

[sptrawler]

My gut feeling is, there is a lot of hope going into the infraco arm, if it doesn't end up getting the NBN, well then it is anyone's guess.

UBS runs numbers on Telstra InfraCo/NBNCo mega deal

The build of Australia's National Broadband Network is expected to finish later this year and when it does the firing gun on NBNCo's sale will start being loaded.

www.afr.com

Just my thoughts.
I don't hold.

 

[sptrawler]

The Telstra chairmans address didn't do anything for my underlying feelings, I still feel there is a lot of navel gazing going on, as to where the growth and income is coming from.
There are several references, as to whether the earnings are achievable, to support the current dividend.

https://asx.api.markitdigital.com/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02292952-3A552417?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Telstra said that its proposed restructure will enable it to take advantage of potential monetisation opportunities for its infrastructure assets. The restructure is expected to be complete by December 2021. The business will be split into InfraCo Fixed, InfraCo Towers and ServeCo.

"The proposed restructure is one of the most significant in Telstra history and the largest corporate change since privatisation. It will unlock value in the company, improve the returns from the company's assets and create further optionality for the future,"

.. said CEO Andy Penn.

"The challenges and disruptions of the last 6 to 12 months have reinforced the increasing value of infrastructure assets globally; the importance of the digital economy, not only to business but to the whole of Australia and its economic recovery; and the dependence of the digital economy on telecommunications as its platform. "Our proposed new corporate structure reflects this new world and will help us support the foundation for it; one that is in the interests of our shareholders, our employees, our customers, and ultimately one that benefits the country overall."

But, is this just History repeating?

 

[sptrawler]

Telstra said that its proposed restructure will enable it to take advantage of potential monetisation opportunities for its infrastructure assets. The restructure is expected to be complete by December 2021. The business will be split into InfraCo Fixed, InfraCo Towers and ServeCo.

.. said CEO Andy Penn.


But, is this just History repeating?

View attachment 114508

I guess the question is, will Telstra be worth the sum of its parts?

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Average Price of 1GB Mobile Data ($US)

Source: www.cable.co.uk/mobiles/worldwide-data-pricing/

"If one looks at the chart above, Australians are paying less for their mobile data than places like Pakistan and Bangladesh, and we believe that over time, mobile rates in Australia will rise to be more in line with other developed market economies."
- Anton Tagliaferro; Investors Mutual

Despite the headwinds of the last few years from the loss of fixed line revenues to the NBN and declining mobile earnings, we remain optimistic about Telstra for three key reasons – the prospect of improved mobile earnings as a result of consolidation in the sector; the likely monetisation of some of Telstra’s infrastructure assets; and Telstra’s projected strong cashflows, all of which should enable the company to improve its financial position and maintain its dividend.

Where is the upside in Telstra? - ShareCafe

Telstra’s share price performance has been lacklustre over the last few years. So what does IML find attractive about Telstra, and why have they increased their holdings over the last three to six months?

www.sharecafe.com.au

 

[sptrawler]

Interesting report @Dona Ferentes and I'm trying to get excited about them, but ATM I can't.
I did get excited when they went into the $2.70 region, but failed to act, hoping for more downside that never came.

Telstra Group (ASX:TLS) - Stock Price, News & Analysis - Simply Wall St

Research Telstra Group's (ASX:TLS) stock price, latest news & stock analysis. Find everything from its Valuation, Future Growth, Past Performance and more.

simplywall.st

RISK ANALYSIS

Interest payments are not well covered by earnings

Dividend of 5.25% is not well covered by earnings

Large one-off items impacting financial results

 

[Miner]

Technically COVID 19 has opened a new world. I believe at a current price following the demerger, TLS is more than likely to offer a great opportunity for the believers. It has the size. insto's backing, organisation, and reputation. Some small ups and downs but in midterm to longterm TLS will outweigh its competitors.
Disclaimer - Holding long - DYOR - every one has his or her own investment/trading strategy

 

[sptrawler]

Technically COVID 19 has opened a new world. I believe at a current price following the demerger, TLS is more than likely to offer a great opportunity for the believers. It has the size. insto's backing, organisation, and reputation. Some small ups and downs but in midterm to longterm TLS will outweigh its competitors.
Disclaimer - Holding long - DYOR - every one has his or her own investment/trading strategy

An interesting aside, I wonder how they will break up the debt, with the demerger, how much each entity takes with it and how they fund it.
Certainly an interesting period in Telstra's history.

 

[Miner]

An interesting aside, I wonder how they will break up the debt, with the demerger, how much each entity takes with it and how they fund it.
Certainly an interesting period in Telstra's history.

It is a multi billion dollar question. Any one knows the answer would be having lunch with Andrew.
May be @Joe Blow invites Andrew Penn to answer us through ASF

 

[sptrawler]

The Telstra chairmans address didn't do anything for my underlying feelings, I still feel there is a lot of navel gazing going on, as to where the growth and income is coming from.
There are several references, as to whether the earnings are achievable, to support the current dividend.

https://asx.api.markitdigital.com/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02292952-3A552417?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

Sounds as though the question still needs answering.

Telstra shares hit six month high as 16¢ dividend maintained

Telstra’s earnings guidance has given its shareholders confidence despite a weak fiscal half year result.

www.theage.com.au

From the article:
Telstra has reported a double-digit decline in underlying earnings for the December half, dragged down by payments to the national broadband network and an estimated $170 million hit from the COVID-19 pandemic, but flagged its battered mobile division would return to growth by the end of the financial year.

The telco giant’s revenue fell 10.4 per cent to $12 billion in the half year to December 31, while net profit dipped by 2.2 per cent to $1.1 billion as chief executive Andrew Penn flagged the telco would look for external investors for its InfraCo Tower division.
Underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation fell by 14.2 per cent to $3.3 billion over the half, due to large payments to NBN Co and the damage from the coronavirus pandemic, which among other issues caused declines in international roaming revenues and additional expenses for customer support. It also triggered $100 million in costs from the pause in previously planned job cuts as the pandemic unfolded. The company earlier this month restarted its redundancy program, which is set to eliminate 1400 jobs, with another 800 roles to be axed by the end of the year.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

and getting close to a 12 month high for TLS, spurred on by corporate activity

Telstra 22/03 announced the next steps in its proposed legal restructure to enable it to better realise the value of its infrastructure assets, take advantage of potential monetisation opportunities and create additional value for shareholders. The proposed legal structure within the Telstra Group, expected to be completed by December 2021, includes the following:
• InfraCo Fixed, which would own and operate Telstra’s passive or physical infrastructure assets: the ducts, fibre, data centres, and exchanges that underpin Telstra’s fixed telecommunications network. This will provide important optionality to create additional value from these assets in the future.
• InfraCo Towers, which would own and operate Telstra’s passive or physical mobile tower assets, which Telstra is looking to monetise given the strong demand and compelling valuations for this type of high-quality infrastructure.
• ServeCo, which would continue to focus on creating innovative products and services, supporting customers and delivering the best possible customer experience. ServeCo would own the active parts of the network, including the radio access network and spectrum assets to ensure Telstra continues to maintain its industry leading mobile coverage and network superiority.

Telstra also intends to establish its international business under a separate subsidiary within the Telstra Group to keep that part of the business, including subsea cables, together as one entity. The international assets will be transferred to the new subsidiary over time, subject to relevant approvals and engagement with appropriate stakeholders.

Also, Telstra will delist its scrip trading on the New Zealand Stock Exchange from June 16 in favour of a single ASX listing.

Telstra is looking to simplify its administration and streamline its shareholder services. Telstra shareholders on the New Zealand register have been reducing over time and, given the accessibility of the ASX to New Zealand-based shareholders, Telstra considers that delisting is an appropriate step,

 

[Dona Ferentes]

and getting close to a 12 month high for TLS, spurred on by corporate activity..

And punched through for the 12 month high today.

picked up 5G spectrum recently

 

[sptrawler]

I still can't get excited, maybe I'm just gun shy.

 

[sptrawler]

Not a good look for Telstra, but a drop in the ocean to the bottom line, it will scare the hell out of service providers though.

The second-largest fine in Australian consumer law history has been issued to Telstra

The Federal Court orders Telstra to pay $50 million, plus costs, for its treatment of Indigenous customers in remote areas, the second-largest penalty ever imposed on a company for breaking Australian consumer law.

www.abc.net.au

 

[peter2]

Who pays for it? The shareholder of course, not the executives who made the decisions.