Tipping Competition for Full CY 2020

[Dona Ferentes]

my tips: CXL , OCC , NXS , DEM.
(... tricky, my first hopefuls probably missed the screens - AR9, SES, EOL.)

reporting season has passed, and a young man turns his attention to introversion and self-analysis ... and (gulp) confirmation bias.

Already, we are some three-quarters of the way through this "year to forget", with its 100-year event* under our belt, perhaps. But it would be fair to say the conniptions will continue to distort markets and play havoc with assumptions for some time to come.

My four tips have been uniformly disappointing and underwater, until a month or so at least, when CXL reported, and rallied.


Then I noticed :
a) only hold CXL and DEM
b) that I had mentioned three others but they were screened out (self screened; daily volume or price didn't meet competition criteria) and this is where a smile comes to my dial. Especially as I hold 3 of these four. (CXL, AR9 and EOL)



*convenient in that the Spanish 'flu pandemic was a century ago

 

[peter2]

At the beginning of the year 118 members of ASF selected four companies each with the aim of winning this CY20 competition. This chart shows the monthly average performance of all 118 four stock portfolios.



We're thumping the XAO. How much better would it be if I culled all the selections that have fallen 50% since the start of the year?

Edit: Perhaps not, Companies like SZL, Z1P, OPY went below -50% during the Covid selloff and have since recovered very nicely.

 

[aus_trader]

At the beginning of the year 118 members of ASF selected four companies each with the aim of winning this CY20 competition. This chart shows the monthly average performance of all 118 four stock portfolios.

View attachment 109150

We're thumping the XAO. How much better would it be if I culled all the selections that have fallen 50% since the start of the year?

Edit: Perhaps not, Companies like SZL, Z1P, OPY went below -50% during the Covid selloff and have since recovered very nicely.

Looks like the collective brainz of ASF members is pretty impressive

 

[peter2]

@finicky Mate, slow down you're killing us.

CHN up >1100% 4 selections +350%.

 

[peter2]

EOM September 20 update: XAO is currently -11.7% for the CY20.

Leader: @finicky +332%

2nd: @Kaya +274%

3rd: @Ross@enna +103%

Big movers for Sept:

@finicky +124% (CHN)
@Kaya +107% (CHN)

@asxpunter +35% (CDV)
@WillWorkForFood +34% (CLQ, CPV)

Competitors above Zero: 69/118 (58%) Similar to last month
Competitors above XAO: 81/118 (73%) Higher than last month



second page . . .

 

[peter2]

Notes: @myrtie100 I haven't calculated the new price for AQG yet, after their merger into SSR. It would be a fraction of the SSR price.

Delisted stocks: Prices set to zero (100% lost): SLM, PLX
If they went private before being delisted there would be a last price. larger than zero. If anyone knows more please let me know.

 

[peter2]

Arrgh! ASX has implemented a new website and it doesn't have the same functionality to show prices of ten stock codes like the old one. The old website remembered the combo's that I had typed in so that all I had to do was type the first stock code and select the group to see all the prices for that group (autofill). Entering all the prices into the spreadsheet took about 90 min due to this shortcut.

However the new website doesn't have this functionality at first glance. It seems that I have to entry every stock code individually and wait for the price to show.

If anyone knows of another service where I can enter multiple stock codes and see all prices, please let me know.

 

[aus_trader]

Arrgh! ASX has implemented a new website and it doesn't have the same functionality to show prices of ten stock codes like the old one. The old website remembered the combo's that I had typed in so that all I had to do was type the first stock code and select the group to see all the prices for that group (autofill). Entering all the prices into the spreadsheet took about 90 min due to this shortcut.

However the new website doesn't have this functionality at first glance. It seems that I have to entry every stock code individually and wait for the price to show.

If anyone knows of another service where I can enter multiple stock codes and see all prices, please let me know.

Not sure Pete, I use broker watchlists but I don't know if the total number of watchlists that can be created has a limit

 

[aus_trader]

Notes: @myrtie100 I haven't calculated the new price for AQG yet, after their merger into SSR. It would be a fraction of the SSR price.

Delisted stocks: Prices set to zero (100% lost): SLM, PLX
If they went private before being delisted there would be a last price. larger than zero. If anyone knows more please let me know.

Oh is the good old Salmat Ltd (SLM) de-listed ? How times have changed, everything is going electronic and online. I remember working for them doing the junk mail and paper rounds many decades ago when there was no such thing as internet or www and everything was in printed media

 

[peter2]

I started just after posting earlier. I've finished and it's taken me 2.5hrs to enter all the data and sort the order. All that's left, is the cut and paste and some comments.

 

[peter2]

EOM October 20 update: XAO is currently -9.8% for the CY20.

Leader: @finicky +340%

2nd: @Kaya +289%

3rd: @asxpunter +102%

Big movers for Oct:

@oilleak +40% (WBT),
@basilio +24% (TLG),
@asxpunter +21% (NML, PLS)

Competitors above Zero: 67/118 (58%) Similar to last month
Competitors above XAO: 82/118 (73%) Similar to last month



and the dreaded 2nd page for all the stragglers. . .

 

[peter2]

The average portfolio value of all competitors charted against the XAO index.

 

[debtfree]

Thanks @peter2 for the updates, comments and graphs, appreciate all the time and effort you put into the Yearly Competitions especially with so many entries this year. Love your work, it's just outstanding. ?

 

[peter2]

NEWS: End of Nov 2020. In the same format of the commercial news broadcasters. . . endless headlines without any details.

The race is on between the top 2 leaders. . .

Another race for third place. . .

Huge comebacks from several competitors, were on life support but now vying for third. . .

Details later on in the broadcast (next post).

 

[peter2]

EOM November 20 update: XAO is currently -0.9% for the CY20.

Leader: @finicky +480%

2nd: @Kaya +451%

3rd: @asxpunter +134%

Big movers for Nov: only those >50%

@Kaya +162% (CHN,XRO)
@finicky +140% (CHN)
@fiftyeight +60% (PLS, ORE, GXY)
@basilio +52% (TLG, HZR)

Competitors above Zero: 79/118 (67%) Higher than last month
Competitors above XAO: 80/118 (68%) Similar to last month



and the second page,

 

[peter2]

Competitors above XAO: 80/118 (68%) Similar to last month

More than 2/3 of the competitors are ahead of the XAO index. This chart shows the average performance of all competitors vs XAO.

 

[tinhat]

More than 2/3 of the competitors are ahead of the XAO index. This chart shows the average performance of all competitors vs XAO.

View attachment 115606

Why would you give your money to a fund manager?

 

[peter2]

@Joe Blow This is an alert post to start discussion about next years (2021) competition.

I made the observation earlier in the year that approx 1/2 of this years competitors have not posted on ASF during the year since their selection post. I would like to see next year's prizemoney (if any) distributed amongst regular community contributors (minimum # of posts in stock threads to qualify for any prizemoney?).

Next years entry thread should be opened soon (and maybe end a week later) to enable timely entries. Last year was a bit rushed and we missed entries from those away on holidays.

I'm comfortable with the current 4 stock format and am willing to administer next years comp. Hoping that there won't be as many entrants though.

If others have any suggestions for next years comp, please post here or on a new thread if Joe starts another.

 

[Joe Blow]

@Joe Blow This is an alert post to start discussion about next years (2021) competition.

I made the observation earlier in the year that approx 1/2 of this years competitors have not posted on ASF during the year since their selection post. I would like to see next year's prizemoney (if any) distributed amongst regular community contributors (minimum # of posts in stock threads to qualify for any prizemoney?).

Agreed. The yearly competition should be a competition for regular participating members of the ASF community. Because I sent out an email to the entire ASF member database about the 2020 competition in December last year, we got a lot of people who entered the competition but have not been back to ASF since.

I would suggest that those entering need to be regular contributors in stock threads in order to qualify to win the prize money. The details of that can be worked out in the next few days.

Next years entry thread should be opened soon (and maybe end a week later) to enable timely entries. Last year was a bit rushed and we missed entries from those away on holidays.

I'm comfortable with the current 4 stock format and am willing to administer next years comp. Hoping that there won't be as many entrants though.

If others have any suggestions for next years comp, please post here or on a new thread if Joe starts another.

I will get the new thread started a little later this week, but would be interested to read any comments or feedback from other ASF members before doing so.

Please feel free to share your thoughts regarding the proposed 2021 yearly competiton.

 

[Joules MM1]

More than 2/3 of the competitors are ahead of the XAO index. This chart shows the average performance of all competitors vs XAO.

View attachment 115606

I would suggest that those entering need to be regular contributors in stock threads in order to qualify to win the prize money.
...I will get the new thread started a little later this week, but would be interested to read any comments or feedback from other ASF members before doing so.

Please feel free to share your thoughts regarding the proposed 2021 yearly competiton.

a minimum contribution post, in a single stock thread, once a month thru the year
the first one is to enter the comp and a balance of minimum once /month = 11 posts to come

a thought