Tipping Competition for Full CY 2018

[peter2]

Your calculation of % gain is incorrect 18.25/43.465 = 42.0%

I average all the %gains/losses with the assumption of an equal value purchase of all five selections.



The second calculation doesn't invest an equal amount in all selections. The initial investments are weighted by the share price.

Percentages are tricky numbers to use.

An example of their trickiness I often remember is this. If an investment loses 50% in one year and gains 100% next year. The fund manager can claim an average gain of 25% pa (100-50 /2). What's the real gain on the investment after two years?

 

[bigdog]

peter2

Thank very much in helping my understand your calculation which I agree with

John

 

[bigdog]

Peter
I am in big trouble with my tips crashing in October currently 22%
today APT crashed 19%

John

 

[peter2]

Last day for Monthly Nov comp.

Yearly comp: Do we have a new leader? Have any of the top selectors survived the brutal Oct 18 sell-off? Is anyone still showing a profit? We'll find out after tonight's close.

 

[peter2]

There's been another leadership spill! This time it's in our yearly comp.

Only four sets of selections made a gain this month. One due to it's "golden" luster.

 

[peter2]

EOM October 2018 update for yearly comp: XAO -6.6% this month (YTD -5.1%)

-------------------------
New leader, congrats @Knobby22

"Sell in May and go away, but remember to buy in November. "

-------------------------
LEADER: Knobby22 +31%

Second: robusta +19%
Third: bigdog +16%

Biggest gains this month: explod +12%

Competitors with 5/5 positive: nil

# competitors beating the XAO: 11 (30%)

 

[Knobby22]

APT steaming back. Bigdog should come close to being back on top.
Have sold by AZ1 and MYX shares as they have run out of steam. only own CSL and DGR now.

 

[peter2]

APT was always a good chance to reverse, but I'm not interested due to the enthusiasm for the Senate inquiry into alternative finance companies.

MYX, I've started a partial position and will add after further price rises (~1.25, SL at 1.00).

 

[peter2]

End of Nov and while I wait for the ASX to close I wonder if the rally in APT has helped bigdog or do we have another new leader (robusta) thanks the the rally in ALU. The stagnant POG hasn't helped explod.

Or maybe the current leader Knobby22 still leads going into December.

My IT dept must wait until after 4:35pm for the prices to settle on the ASX website. Rest assured I'll get them working once the time is right. No Friday drinks until it's done.
----------------------------

@Joe Blow Is it time to start a new thread for the 2019 Yearly comp?
We average 30 participants, perhaps if we open it earlier we'll entice a few more.

However, I like to reduce my workload a little by reducing the number of stocks selected from 5 to 3 or 4.

 

[Knobby22]

Yea, I think 5 is one too many.

 

[Joe Blow]

@Joe Blow Is it time to start a new thread for the 2019 Yearly comp?
We average 30 participants, perhaps if we open it earlier we'll entice a few more.

However, I like to reduce my workload a little by reducing the number of stocks selected from 5 to 3 or 4.

Yes, I agree it would be best to get the 2019 FY competition entry thread underway soon to maximise the number of participants in the coming year. I'm more than happy to agree to either three or four entries per participant. Whatever works for you is fine by me.

Thank you again for all your hard work in keeping the full year competition alive and the monthly updates coming in. I sincerely appreciate your efforts as I'm sure many others do.

 

[peter2]

OK I'm happy with 4 selections . . .

and how about everyone post their reasons for their top pick for 2019 in the stock specific thread.

Just a few reasons why they think this stock will be higher in 2019.

 

[Joe Blow]

OK I'm happy with 4 selections . . .

and how about everyone post their reasons for their top pick for 2019 in the stock specific thread.

Just a few reasons why they think this stock will be higher in 2019.

Sounds good to me. Posting reasons helps provide context for people's decisions, and more posts in stock threads can only be a good thing.

 

[peter2]

EOM November 2018 update for yearly comp: XAO -2.6% this month (YTD -7.7%)

-------------------------
@Knobby22 holds unto the lead, but the others are closing in.
It may even come down to divs unless gold catches a bid.

-------------------------
LEADER: Knobby22 +25%

Second: robusta +21%
Third: bigdog +20%
Fourth: explod +18%

Biggest gains this month: nothing worth mentioning

Competitors with 5/5 positive: nil

# competitors beating the XAO: 10 (28%)

 

[Knobby22]

How did I go Peter?

 

[peter2]

My apologies, this is something else I've got to catch up with.

 

[explod]

How did I go Peter?

Peter is very busy doing a good job,

but look out as I think I am breathing down your neck Knobby22.

 

[explod]

My apologies, this is something else I've got to catch up with.

You just take your time Peter as I want you to set it for yours truly to win the big 2019 one.

 

[peter2]

Thanks, it's going to take longer than usual as pixel's code that allows me to download all the EOD data won't look back to Dec 31st.

Of the top four I've done so far it's going to be very close and I might have to look at the dividends that were paid during 2018 to find the winners.

I'm working on it now.
OMG what happens if a "guest" tipster wins? eg M.Roth 2018

 

[peter2]

Results are in and forwarded to @Joe Blow for approval to publish.