Tipping Competition for Full CY 2017

[Logique]

Thanks for the update Peter. I was dead last at one point during the year, but rapt to be now beating the index

 

[Logique]

Peter, sorry if this has been covered before, but how do you calculate the overall percentage gain?
My bundle has moved on a little bit from your last review on 30 Nov, which said a then 6.4% gain. But I think I've done better than that.

If I assume an equal investment in each of my five stocks (say $1 each):
January initial $5.00 ; value on 14 Dec: $8.17 ; so $8.17 / $5 = 63.4% gain

Admittedly, it's the same calculation for everyone, so it wouldn't change the tipster placings.

 

[PZ99]

Peter, sorry if this has been covered before, but how do you calculate the overall percentage gain?
My bundle has moved on a little bit from your last review on 30 Nov, which said a then 6.4% gain. But I think I've done better than that.

If I assume an equal investment in each of my five stocks (say $1 each):
January initial $5.00 ; value on 14 Dec: $8.17 ; so $8.17 / $5 = 63.4% gain

Admittedly, it's the same calculation for everyone, so it wouldn't change the tipster placings.

Add all your percentages up and divide by 5.

So as of today it's 174% + 34% - 57% - 53% - 38% = 60% / 5 = 12% YTD

Not bad

 

[Wysiwyg]

Add all your percentages up and divide by 5.

So as of today it's 174% + 34% - 57% - 53% - 38% = 60% / 5 = 12% YTD

Not bad

Shows exactly why buy and hold is not a great strategy.

 

[systematic]

peter2,

Another set of picks for next year - posting now so I don't have to remember...

Lincoln Indicators (via ASX)
source link

CGL The Citadel Group
PME Pro Medicus
PPS Praemium
SLK SeaLink Travel Group
CCP Credit Corp

As we only want 5 stocks and they provided 8 stocks, here are 2 comments to justify the above 5.

Note 1:
The top 4 are the 'star growth' stocks (which I have selected) as the next group of 4 are star income stocks. I don't expect any debate that this comp is geared toward growth over income.

Note 2:
That left a need to select one extra stock from the 4 income stocks...which they made easy because they state that Credit Corp also qualifies as a star growth stock. So that gives us our 5.

 

[nulla nulla]

Shows exactly why buy and hold is not a great strategy.

Just out of curiosity did you calculate the result including dividends? This would give a more realistic result for the "buy and hold" investor.

 

[Logique]

My Full CY 2018 selections are:
GXY
LPD
KDR
PLS
SXY

 

[Wysiwyg]

Just out of curiosity did you calculate the result including dividends? This would give a more realistic result for the "buy and hold" investor.

Yes you are right about adding dividends making the end result look better. For a fixed term competition hold though, cull the detracting, let the winners run in my opinion.

 

[peter2]

There are only three trading days left until the end of this CY2017 competition.

The order of the top six has been changing frequently. I have not looked for miracles outside the top6. If there is one then it'll be a surprise for us all.

Dividends: If the difference between any of the top six is <10% I will include all dividends paid during the year. Currently, dividends may determine the 3rd placed competitor. I won't include divs for any other set of selections.

 

[peter2]

Well that's it for 2017. I'll get the abacus out or better yet, do any of you remember VisiCalc ?

 

[peter2]

EOY 2017 Final Results: The XAO ended the year +7.8%

WINNER for 2017 : Parse +111% (DCC +645%)

2nd: PZ99 +86% (LPD +436%)
3rd: djones +66% (OOK +383%)

Very honourable mentions to systematic (+50%) and robusta (+42%) whose final results were spread across all selections rather than one lucky pick.

Biggest gains this month: djones +60% (OOK), Parse +47% (DCC)

Competitors with 5/5 positive: pinkboy who got there with divs.

# of competitors > XAO (out of 39): 18 (46%)

 

[tech/a]

Great Job Pete.

Well done to all those who participated.
The Duck made one BIG error!
But hey happy new year

 

[Joe Blow]

A fantastic result in 2017 with 18 of the 39 entrants beating the XAO. Well done!

On top of coming second in the 2017 yearly competition, PZ99 has also won the last two monthly competitions as well. Impressive stuff.

Can Parse, PZ99 and djones please contact me via PM regarding their prizes.

A huge thanks must go to peter2 for keeping track of the results in the calendar year competition and for posting the monthly updates. Thank you Peter for keeping this competition alive and for taking the time to update us every month. Your efforts are sincerely appreciated!

 

[peter2]

It's my pleasure to contribute a little of my time to this community.

To tech/a, thanks mate. I love your passion. This pic is just for you.

 

[Logique]

Thanks for running this Peter, and a very prompt final summary, well done. And of course thanks Joe for hosting it.

Well done the podium finishing tipsters, but interesting to note that both first and second would both be disqualified under 2018 rules, each picked several stocks below $0.10 in Jan 2017. But it's not the Sydney - Hobart race, and I won't be protesting

Some hot tipsters in here. I comfortably beat both the index and the ETFs, but could only finish 15th!

 

[Joe Blow]

For those who kept track of the 2017 competition but didn't enter, now's your chance to join in the fun in 2018.

Post your entries here and have a crack at next year's competition: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/tipping-competition-for-full-cy-2018.33678

 

[tech/a]

It's my pleasure to contribute a little of my time to this community.

To tech/a, thanks mate. I love your passion. This pic is just for you.

View attachment 85409

Thanks mate
I feel like the guy who paid 85 bitcoins for a pizza!

 

[PZ99]

Thanks for running this Peter, and a very prompt final summary, well done. And of course thanks Joe for hosting it.

Well done the podium finishing tipsters, but interesting to note that both first and second would both be disqualified under 2018 rules, each picked several stocks below $0.10 in Jan 2017. But it's not the Sydney - Hobart race, and I won't be protesting

Some hot tipsters in here. I comfortably beat both the index and the ETFs, but could only finish 15th!

Yep, agreed.... I delayed submitting my post by one hour as an attempted redress

One cent stock was a fluke but there's plenty of potential 10c multi baggers out there so plenty of fun to be had for 2018.

Happy new year all and a big thanks to peter2 for updating the comp.

 

[pinkboy]

EOY 2017 Final Results: The XAO ended the year +7.8%

WINNER for 2017 : Parse +111% (DCC +645%)

2nd: PZ99 +86% (LPD +436%)
3rd: djones +66% (OOK +383%)

Very honourable mentions to systematic (+50%) and robusta (+42%) whose final results were spread across all selections rather than one lucky pick.

Biggest gains this month: djones +60% (OOK), Parse +47% (DCC)

Competitors with 5/5 positive: pinkboy who got there with divs.

# of competitors > XAO (out of 39): 18 (46%)

View attachment 85405

Was watching WAM all day in hope that it finished the day on $2.41 - same price as of start of the year. Not a bad result being off by 1c for my 5 picks.

Pretty hard to go with LICs for 2018 - all at high prices. Ill have a look for next years comp.

Thanks again for the upkeep of the competition.

pinkboy

 

[peter2]

Systematic's selections were the only batch to avoid going below zero throughout the year.

The selections of systematic, robusta, Acetrade, mcgrath111 and pinkboy were the most consistent throughout the year.