No way in the world am I touching any of the banks yet. We're just a bit behind the rest of the world in our economic downturn due to the kick along we had from our resources in the last few years, but our house prices are also overpriced, and our companies are starting to fall over. There's no way our banks will grow anywhere near the rate they have been over the last decade, and most have been raising more equity so the profit has to be spread over a larger number of shares. Maybe in a year or two.
Time to look at the banks again?
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Sean K
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Hope all you guys bagging the banks, saying no recovery anytime soon and near disaster are putting your boxers on.
If it is all disaster, what an opportunity!
If it is all disaster, what an opportunity!
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Even if it's not all disaster from here it will still be an opportunity imo.
But there is no rush, even if there is no more downside from here there will be opportunities to get in with alot less risk imo.
Not bagging the banks, ours have done pretty well on a global scale, just think there is more downside over the next year or two. I also think there will be time to make a cheaper entry down the track when a bit more risk is out of the market, and it will take many more years for them to get back to their former growth rates in a more debt averse enviroment.
Sean K
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Sorry if my point was misconstrued.
If you think there's downside, short them, and make some money.
I have the feeling too many people have been sitting on the sidelines with this rout and have missed the downside opportunities. I'm kicking myself for not taking more advantage of it.
IFocus
You are arguing with a Galah
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Barclays fell 25% on Friday alone which prompted the following media release from the company after the close of trade.
http://www.newsroom.barclays.com/Content/Detail.asp?ReleaseID=1492&NewsAreaID=2
The Times Online has hinted that the sharp fall on Friday was the work of short sellers.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/article5533488.ece
It will be interesting to see how this plays out next week.
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The bank dividend cuts that followed 1987 stock market crash make sobering reading for any long term bank investor both in terms of amount and timing. They leave me with the impression that it took much more time than the few months after the initial crash before bank boards realised the eventual impact on their organisations.Sorry if my point was misconstrued.
If you think there's downside, short them, and make some money.
I have the feeling too many people have been sitting on the sidelines with this rout and have missed the downside opportunities. I'm kicking myself for not taking more advantage of it.
For the longer term investor looking to strike a more conservative risk/return balance than a trader this is something to consider.
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Barclays is a big worry as it's paying 14% interest on its US$7 billion loan. The British pound has tanked badly adding to the cost. The companies market cap is now only about US$6 billion above the loan and they seem to need much more.
This loan interest is far above that paid by the average guy in the street.
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I heard citi have just reported another US$8 billion qtr loss this weekend.
I would keep right away from the financials ATM. There is still
plenty of garbage out there and the blinkered financial press will remain passively muted and lack any spontaenity in revealing the next write-downs, losses, negative news until they are fed it
IMHO!
DYOR
I would keep right away from the financials ATM. There is still
plenty of garbage out there and the blinkered financial press will remain passively muted and lack any spontaenity in revealing the next write-downs, losses, negative news until they are fed it
IMHO!
DYOR
Glen48
Money can't buy Poverty
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Going short on all the Banks? I read a newsletter last nigh sent out by an accountant say CBA still has to answer questions about home loans it has undertaken.
I must say every time I go short they got in the opposite direction soon as I work that out I can make some money.
I must say every time I go short they got in the opposite direction soon as I work that out I can make some money.
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Sean K
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LOL.now place a chart of BEN .bendigo bank right next to em
blessem
Maybe I should look at BEN.
Past results are no indication blah blah blah ...
Actually, isn't BEN back at 5 year lows like every one else?????
Garpal Gumnut
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A nice little takeover or two and the end of the four pillars is what we need.
I'm watching volume carefully as the insiders will get the good word way before anyone else.
Watch the prices go north if the 4 Pillars go.
gg
I'm watching volume carefully as the insiders will get the good word way before anyone else.
Watch the prices go north if the 4 Pillars go.
gg
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No way not touching them at all. To much crap is still out there and who really knows what is hidden in their huge balance sheets. Capital raising a positive? It just shows that the banks are struggling and don't know what is going to happen to their so called assets. More corporate failures to come, especially on the small - medium scale if we do go through a even mild recession. All spells more trouble from this perspective. Why buy into them now? Why buy into them at all? Just because they grew a **** load in the last bull market doesn't mean they will in the next (and didn't in the past). Remember the last 10 years was funded by debt, fake money, the world's been shot to pieces because of it this past 18 months. Do you really think it is going to be so proficient in the next few years. I'd prefer to be going with the companies that supply services that people actually need (banking is one of them, but they're a very tricky investment the past year has shown this), or the industrials that will see the big turn around when the economy turns and people start to spend again.
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.........I hold , been buying around $10.09 as posted previously ...... pay no heed to me m8 but do think a comparison of charts next to the big 4 shows a different pattern .YES they have come off there highs as with most others BUT not a big a % fall as some others .my anyalsis (if u can call it that) is posted previously in another thread when i moved my savings and deposits there .as posted in another thread too my future entrys to this bank are posted also .
as with all a good read will point out a few differences between this bank and others and definately NOT claiming it to be in the same finacial class as the big 4 , BUT at times biggest isnt always best
cheers
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The commonwealth is just going to continue to provide the banks an un-proportionate amount of support. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot looser regulatory restrictions on the banks in the next year, allowing them to get what would be an otherwise uncompetitive market power. Whats not to like!
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Is there any easily accessable up to date information on the big 4's net tangable asset backing per share ?
The info from their latest profit reports is a little dated given capital raisings and takeovers since.
The info from their latest profit reports is a little dated given capital raisings and takeovers since.
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I have performed some crude bank NTA backing calculations of my own as displayed in the following table,
..........Balance date......Estimated post raisings/aquisitions
WBC.....$7.87...............~$8.10. Post StGeorge takeover and $2.5b raising.
ANZ....$10.72...............No institutional share raisings that I'm aware of.
CBA....$12.38...............$14.00 to $14.50. Post raisings/Bankwest purchase. Too complex hence range.
NAB....$10.16...............~$11.00. Post $3.0b raising.
It would be interesting to see how the current ratio of share price/NTA per share compares to previous economic downturns. If memory serves me correct, bank share prices at their low point in the late 80's/early 90's recession were on average closer to NTA/share than they are now.
Note that the above estimates do not take into account share capital raised from SSP's or DRP's (underwritten or otherwise) post balance date.
..........Balance date......Estimated post raisings/aquisitions
WBC.....$7.87...............~$8.10. Post StGeorge takeover and $2.5b raising.
ANZ....$10.72...............No institutional share raisings that I'm aware of.
CBA....$12.38...............$14.00 to $14.50. Post raisings/Bankwest purchase. Too complex hence range.
NAB....$10.16...............~$11.00. Post $3.0b raising.
It would be interesting to see how the current ratio of share price/NTA per share compares to previous economic downturns. If memory serves me correct, bank share prices at their low point in the late 80's/early 90's recession were on average closer to NTA/share than they are now.
Note that the above estimates do not take into account share capital raised from SSP's or DRP's (underwritten or otherwise) post balance date.
