TIM - Timbercorp Limited

[Jackob]

Not sure that's accurate. The majority of their horticultural projects are still in their early stages and aren't generating income yet. They achieved record new project sales in 2006. Most of these sales were Almond and Olive plantations, these crops haven't even had their first harvest yet.

I reckon Almond and Olive plantations actually have got harvests for ~5 years now. The "recurring incomes" from those projects are what TIM has always got to brag about for years now.

But the real problem is what is the total cost to generate those incomes, or say whether all the incomes TIM has got can cover all its running costs, including debt servicing (and/or paying rental on land), paying dividends and tax, etc.

TIM tells us it’s still making money albeit shrinking, but on the other hand we all see its debt increasing year by year.

Debt/equity = 173% now (by 30/9/2007) and I reckon it would easily surpass 200% in one year (by 30/9/2008). Well, where is the limit?

 

[Rainmaker2000]

Agree with that Jackob......hopeing their gearing is on way downwards as they have indicated and there are many reasons why it is........Horticulture MIS has ended for now....TIM actually has a backlog of projects which have not been passed on to investors so they don't need to acquire more........they have commited to a less capital intensive model for future investment products.........they are gradually packinging mature assets up to sell on to the TIM trust.......their free cash flows 'should' be building up....they have loans they could securitize in a 'deeper' market

All of this 'should' be happening and much of it management has said is happening......Be good if we could believe the company however.

 

[Trader Paul]

Hi folks,

TIM ... has been on a slide, since end-of-financial year on 30062006
and now expecting a blow-off low, middle of this week .....

..... 05052008 should see a key reversal cycle come into play ... a cycle,
that has been VERY reliable for TIM in the past, so it would not be surprising
to see some buying late next week, as buyers anticipate this low.

Updated TIM chart, attached below, says it all.

have a great weekend

paul



=====

 

[michael_selway]

Hi folks,

TIM ... has been on a slide, since end-of-financial year on 30062006
and now expecting a blow-off low, middle of this week .....

..... 05052008 should see a key reversal cycle come into play ... a cycle,
that has been VERY reliable for TIM in the past, so it would not be surprising
to see some buying late next week, as buyers anticipate this low.

Updated TIM chart, attached below, says it all.

have a great weekend

paul



=====

Hi its actually not too bad at current prices

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 21.7 20.0 19.3 19.2
DPS 7.0 7.0 7.3 8.3

Just the risk associated with this one i am not too sure about atm

thx

MS

 

[treefrog]

Hi folks,

TIM ... has been on a slide, since end-of-financial year on 30062006
and now expecting a blow-off low, middle of this week .....

..... 05052008 should see a key reversal cycle come into play ... a cycle,
that has been VERY reliable for TIM in the past, so it would not be surprising
to see some buying late next week, as buyers anticipate this low.
Updated TIM chart, attached below, says it all.
have a great weekend
paul
=====

just checked the tealeaves in the bottom of my cup paul, says something about 'beware the tax book"......nope its 'beware those bringing tax losses to book May/June08" - couple of leaves looked to be touching but they weren't!

 

[Trader Paul]

Hi folks,

TIM ... has been on a slide, since end-of-financial year on 30062006
and now expecting a blow-off low, middle of this week .....

..... 05052008 should see a key reversal cycle come into play ... a cycle,
that has been VERY reliable for TIM in the past, so it would not be surprising
to see some buying late next week, as buyers anticipate this low.

Updated TIM chart, attached below, says it all.

have a great weekend

paul

=====

Hi folks,

TIM..... cycle comes in, right on TIMe .....

"..... 05052008 should see a key reversal cycle come into
play ... a cycle, that has been VERY reliable for TIM
in the past ... "

Looking a head .... expecting TIM to be booming in
December 2008 / January 2009.

More later.

have a great day

paul



=====

 

[sheggie]

TIM ”” WHAT'S HAPPENING?

Timbercorp's price is up over 20% since this morning. No announcements from the company. Any guesses what's occuring?

 

[brty]

Has everyone gone cold on this one???

Tax loss selling has finished, price still pitiful.

Trader Paul, That bottom of yours gave way, we are now 25% below that level. Any further comments/support areas???

brty

 

[bandicoot]

TIM: is Timbercorp headed to administration?

Even before the crash, their debt looked bad. The asset valuations seem optimistic, and they have little cash. Can they continue much longer?

 

[bandicoot]

...On the other hand: would not Timbercorp be in line for a windfall from the ETS? (Assuming they can survive long enough)

 

[Grumpy Old Man]

...On the other hand: would not Timbercorp be in line for a windfall from the ETS? (Assuming they can survive long enough)

Not sure because at least in most cases, they dont own the trees...and the land is not storing carbon. I imagine that the investor would obtain any benefit from the carbon rather than the scheme promoter. And only then if the trees are not cut down...which would kind of defeat the purpose in that the carbon is worth a lot less than the pulpwood value for paper.

 

[wooduk]

Hi,I just snooped in on your site ,usually I am at GTP,beying for the company,s blood.

So,Iwas curious at gtp future and if you would liketo comment on it?

 

[alphaman]

Prices of TIM's securities today.

TIM: $0.08
TIMPB (preference share face value $2): $0.115
TIMG (sub note face value $100): $8.6
TIMHB (bond face value $100): $30

It's interesting how in a situation like this the common share often appears overpriced compared to the hybrids.

 

[MrBurns]

Timbercorp - gone

Highly recommended by Charlie Aitken a while back

padding to 100 characters....................

 

[alphaman]

Highly recommended by Charlie Aitken a while back
[/I]

Isn't he the guy who has been very bulllish on MQG from all the way up and blames all MQG's problems on shorting?

 

[Fatcat]

Timbercorp - gone

Highly recommended by Charlie Aitken a while back

padding to 100 characters....................

Mr Burns,
Like most other things, I'm guessing we can direct responsibility for their demise to Kevin Rudd?

 

[drsmith]

Timbercorp - gone

The Company update issued to the ASX from April 16 2009 very much to me read like a concession speech.

 

[krk004]

Interesting, the web has been woven!

Safe haven for Timbercorp assets

Thought this may come up as a potential issue at some time!

Not a holder,

 

[brty]

Hi,

Administrator Mark Korda immediately suspended Timbercorp's forestry and horticulture operations

But in an email to grower-investors, Mr Korda said payments should be continued.

Is it just me?? or does this really mean "we are not doing any more work on your 'investor lots' but we want you to keep paying?? Or maybe something like, "we are breaking the contract, but you still have to uphold your end".

This is just another corporate mess, with the shareholders/investors likely to end up with very little or nothing.


brty

 

[anthracite]

im glad to be out of this one a long time ago i did not take enough good profit after my entry but glad not to be holding now. there was a nice article in the herald_ sun this week on timber corp