Righto you ASF trendsetters/punters onto the brissie carnival tomorrow with the btc cup & apache cat as a 1/2 fav.doomben is a small tight track where the gates are very important just like the dishlickers,its the support races where we will be looking to snag some more 10-20/1 shots for you folks,mmm not even a thank you last week,i know 60 of you had a look
...big fields means good value,look for the interstate trainers & the nzers as they win most of the races...
doomben
R1.NO.8.Answer me,won 5/10 & has improvement in her
R2.NO.4.Masai pride,been running in harder races so hard to beat(h2b)
R3.NO.2.Stolit,been running in quality hcps,watch no.11.Simplex(hard 2 catch!)
R4.NO.1.Acorns,7th in the MM,now got the shades on, & hard race to assess,no.13.feline flyer a 1st starter could be the ko horse
R5.NO.7.Sheezvalue,going for the nsw visitor over (no.2 sectagonal backmarker & fav.who might leave his run late again),SV is trained by ms mithy rae at queenbeyan,she is a very astute horsewoman,look for her to have more runners up in brissie...
chairmans hcp 2020m
R6.NO.11.Diamondsoninside,10/1 good chance,the fav is no 10.Rezone,5 wins,10x 2nds
from 31 starts,1st thing you look at in a horses form is his win & 2nds ratio,steer clear of horses with more 2nds than 1sts after about 10 runs,it will mean you back less losers,DOI has 9 wins,2 x 2nds from 39 starts.
R7.NO.1 Apache cat,should win,JBC has swick.no.2 in, with $80,000 for 2nd its a good lead up for him for the stradbroke.AC impressed me in his sydney win the way he cruised up to win at the 200m,AC-Swick exacta...for later on watch the run of no.7 la montagna(i had a very large win on her in the stradbroke last year at 14/1)no.8.d.oliver...$5.50...
R8.NO.10.Tagus(AJC &d.oliver ) was a good run in the carbine in sydney & olly won the last on kosi bay at $16.50 last week,but im also going to back the filly ive been tipping from melb.no.15.royale harmony who was placed in the vrc oaks, she has been hampered by wet tracks so far,when she gets a dry track she will win,of the 2 i like RH better but i follow AJC'S horses...
the saturday meeting is at hawkesbury,i only like a few on the card there.
R3.NO.6.Blessus,JBC horse at $6.00,been running in stakes races so should be in the money..
R6.NO.10.Danasierra,JBC at $11.00,might get scratched as it dont have a jockey nominated,no.4. tenants tiara at $3.00 is h2b..
R7.NO.3.Turffontein AJC'S colt at $8.00 is way over the odds,should be 2ndfav.at $3.50,follow this horse if he wins AJC will send him to brissie for the qld guineas(1600m) & maybe the derby(2400m)
caulfield,small meeting but a few here could be value...amberino a winner for us is in again,i stuck with helideck & got 7/1 & 15/1 so it pays to follow a horse you win on..
R1.NO.3.Dane julia,i highlighted this imported mare at her 1st run for the freedmans,shes run a head,nose 3rd 57kg 1200m 1st up,then last start 2 3/4 3rd(amberino 2nd,won since) over 1400m at caulfield,now shes 3rd up at 1800m at which shes unbeaten...bet up big...FBI may send her north.
R2.NO.9.Houseboats,a 3 year old up against the older stayers here over 2394m,no.4 good red looks the big danger,but i like HB last run in the 2800m st leger with a 3 1/2 6th at his 1st go past 2200m,he has more scope for the future unlike the others,only had 6 starts for 1 win &1x2nd.the vrc st leger has over the years been a good guide to the melb.cup,so put the winner Inkster & Moment in time,Houseboats in your MC black book...
R3.NO.10.Hezabruiser,lots of rubbish form here,this one is a 5 yo with 3 wins from 6 starts,ran 2nd to no.7 Not a copy last start,so those 2 look the goods
R4.NO.5.Ortensia,won her 1st 2 races & is $2.10 fav,no.7 turquia has won here & looks the danger at $9.00...the 7 better value...
R5.NO.4.Lisson grove,the hardest race to pick,David hayes has brought this filly back from sydney after a 15 lens last to hot danish,took her to cranbourne & beaten 3 3/4 7th to gold chant who then went to sydney for a 3 1/4 6th at 1200m,the 2 favs here at the caulfield 1100m have the 16 & 17 gates. devil may care 16,gold chant 17,you must lead from this gate to win,so d.hayes has put the blinkers on LG,she has gate 1 so at $15.00 pre post,i think she is a good hope,no.10. magic of melbourne has won her 1st 2 starts in weaker class so i had to weigh up which one?weaker class v stronger class less form but gate 1 & blinkers...going LG..no 4
R6.NO.2.Gunfire messiah,he won at $6.00 odd last month for us so stick with the gunner!up to 1400m...$3.50fav...
R7.NO.4.Amberino,i stuck with her when she ran 4th & 2nd after winning over 1600m at the valley & she won for us last start over 1300m at sandown,stick with her over the 1400m.c.williams to ride..$4.00
R8.NO.11.Adversarial,c.williams,2nd fav at $7.00,the hot tip is no.13.costa in the blind,but going for the hayes/williams combo again
Now in melb. you got 2 past winners GM &amberino to anchor the quaddie so im going to go.4&10,2,4,11&13...in the quaddie
over at morphettville s.a.
R7.NO.11.Goin to jackson,10/1 shot up against the older horses but this 3 yo has won 4/6 & a 2nd,last start with 58kg & 3 wide the entire 1450m trip he got the cash,drops to 53kg with gate 5 over 1600m,tab fixed odds too so ill just see what the tab is offering...mmm,can get $6.00 now as 4th fav,reckon its good value as i rate him an equal fav at $4.50...
Go hard or go home!....tb..