Thoughts on Trading and Investing : Garpal Gumnut :

I have been an inmate of the Aussiestockforums.com asylum for 20 years and admire those who post their trading, in particular their manner of opening and closing, management of trades and assets used whether it be of a fundamental or technical nature. @Sean K @Skate @qldfrog @wayneL @DrBourse @Dona Ferentes and @peter2 come to mind, although there are many many more. There are some who have passed on and many unborn hopefully who have and will assist me and other less talented members. Excuse me for not including your tags with the 7. But you all have influenced my thoughts on Trading etc. ... And you know who you are.

My eponymous thread is more than just the crazy ramblings of myself. Although it will be crazy in that it will not have any focus. I believe sanity is a much over-rated state. When I post in other threads I often do so to make my mind up, on whether I should enter or close a holding, look at sectors ignored or to clear my mind of pre-conceptions which hinder me from making profits on trading or investing.

I won't block nor abuse any posters as it does take some courage to anonymously spoil the thought train of others and hey its in the constitution if you are an Americano and there are diverse thoughts from people with piles that need airing ( the thoughts not the piles ).

I do not have the application unfortunately to dissect annual and other reports nor to go down the rabbit hole of newer momentum saviours as @DrBourse does, so my concentration will be on my thoughts which occur as they do with others in a random fashion, without rhyme nor reason, but always based in that which is topical to affecting the markets and investors.

Thus it came to pass that while avoiding a pensioner crossing on red with the obligatory wheelie walker in the Arnage this morning, under a beautiful sky here in Townsville, the Saudi cousins came to mind. Those cousins that one hesitates to discuss lest some believer comes at one with a knife while gently murmuring a gelato on The Strand. The Saudis are in all sorts of strife atm. having been sold the American dream by the cousins who have no name on Wall St. and in Chicago via futures and options. The talk about town is that the Saudis are as close to bankruptcy as any infidel could hope for. This may not matter much to those who have paid for the obligatory package tour for the Haj but it will for those of us interested in trading and investing in Oilers. They are going none too well atm. The Saudi cousins as well as being in bed with Uncle Sam are recently seeking recourse with cousins Putin and Xi via the BRICS and have unwisely I believe began to threaten said Uncle Sam's $USD whose well-being depends on a low oil price for oil bought from abroad and a reasonable return for Texans and other frackers in the Land of the Free.

So my thought for today is that oil will go lower, much lower and as with knee and thigh bones, everything is connected. So a good thought experiment for grubs like me is "What will I do expecting a dramatic fall in the POI. " Then again it may not fall you say. and you may be correct given the strife that the Israeli and Ukrainian cousins are experiencing as the POI always goes up with War. Or does it? Also another thought " Should oil fall what else will go down with it, or up."

I do enjoy trading and investing. It clears the ravens from my mind. All the best with yours my fellow lunatics on ASF.

gg

Garpal Gumnut said:

So my thought for today is that oil will go lower, much lower and as with knee and thigh bones, everything is connected. So a good thought experiment for grubs like me is "What will I do expecting a dramatic fall in the POI. " Then again it may not fall you say. and you may be correct given the strife that the Israeli and Ukrainian cousins are experiencing as the POI always goes up with War. Or does it? Also another thought " Should oil fall what else will go down with it, or up."

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well it seems less oil ( and gas ) will be traded in US dollars and Russia is rather willing to sell via long term contracts ( just no longer in US dollars or euros )

now the Saudis have plenty of oil left , but what will they swap if for , Indian manufactured BMWs , Brazilian beef , Russian wheat and corn , perhaps

assuming a fair chunk of OPEC+ start trading outside the Western dominated markets , will the price of POO go higher as there is less competition in Western markets along with ballooning production and transport costs

cheers

Thanks GG for that delightful read. I do chuckle thinking of you and your man in the Arnage driving around the Qld outback looking for suitable storage sites to bury a bar or two. If you ever lose that list of GPS coordinates, then it won't be just your past wives digging up the Qld outback. All your fellow patrons of the Ross Island Hotel will be out digging as well. Wouldn't that be a sight. More holes in the ground than WA.

On the serious topic of earning a little extra from the market, I've noticed that you've picked up a few TA terms over the years. You're a patient investor and I respect this.

Lower oil prices eh? If your Saudi cousins are that hard up then they won't let the POO fall too much. I'd be shocked if WTI goes lower than $70. I'll start buying at $73 again. The ETF OOO is good enough for a short term buy the dip position.

I am concerned about your WES though. They haven't extricated themselves from Catch and the Kidman lithium purchase was a strange decision to replace their coal business.

Almost forgot to ask, are you selling your gold plated darts yet? They've hit so many winners for you in the monthly comp that they're bound to fetch a pretty penny.

as there isn't a Saudi thread, per se, I'll drop this here.


The gist is that projects to diversify away from petro dollars are going to cost a lot, and a falling oil price ain't helping. So, do they just open the spiggots or try to enforce quotas amonst the brethren?

@Garpal Gumnut
As ever, or not, posses deep and thought provoking themes and musings. Onya.

@Dona Ferentes
FWIW. The Line, just another name for a not-so-great and claustrophobic wall...

As another financial year draws to a close it has occurred to me what happiness is in investing and trading. And it is not making a profit, although that is important. It is rather being comfortable and having few regrets. Or at least not thinking too much about past errors nor when the lord of chance Sir Ko Chun rules against my moves to answer by becoming angry. Thus as with many endeavours it is the experience rather than the result that I try to keep front and centre, but then it was a successful year. Perhaps the next may not be so. And I will not be so so magnanimous to the good knight Ko.

This southerly turn in my fortunes however is not being touted by the bulls. July it is said is a painful month for bears, purely on the figures over the last 20 years. That is as opposed to other months, particularly June. For me this sixth month in the calendar year was one where I lost some of my "winnings" and on the other hand even loosened some longstanding shares from my SMSF for good profit and trimming others for capital losses. I also aged another year, as we all do, and thus my concept of short, medium and long term trades has shifted, so much so that I may discard the concept of long term.

The world has become more complex in 2024, the Israeli and the Palestinian cousins are now quite open about their long term plans for each other and the concept of a fair resolution to this biblical conflict appears further away than it ever did. Neither bunch do themselves much credit in the process and seem content in bringing the rest of the world in to conflict via the Persian and the American cousins. As if this did not make investing more difficult the Russian and Ukrainian cousins seem as set in their fratricidal conflict as ever with the former clinging to allegiances with others such as the Chinese and N. Korean cousins who frankly despise Russia.

Banks all over the world are unsure which way interest rates will move and in all probability will have to consult financial journalists and politicians for guidance as when or in what direction interest rates will move. What chance do I have of predicting this. Fifty percent, no more no less. Inflation though is taking off and families are being cruelled with high mortgage obligations and high rent. Our elected representatives from both the capitalist right and from those who pretend not to be capitalists on the left continue to invest for themselves and their families in negatively geared houses and a perusal of a change in investments on the parliamentary register is probably all one can hope for as guidance from Canberra as to where to invest. Is there enough rope to hang them all?

My only prediction for next financial year is a consolidation and sideways moves on the charts. Unlike many in the ASF community I am unable to predict the future. My excuse is that of the schoolboy " The dog ate my MACD Sir. " I shall continue to watch price and volume, support and resistance and my simple faithful RSI. I will of course continue to read the many wise and enjoyable posts on ASF.

So, HAPPY NEW FINANCIAL YEAR. May you all have few regrets and experience good fortune and be safe and well in FY 2024-2025.

gg

Garpal Gumnut said:

So, HAPPY NEW FINANCIAL YEAR. May you all have few regrets and experience good fortune and be safe and well in FY 2024-2025.

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Reading your post , Lord Gumnut, on reflection I saw myself.

I am not fussed by losses, regrets I've had a few and probably too many to mention, and your opening comments about "what happiness [there] is in investing and trading .... [a]nd it is not making a profit, although that is important", is a sentiment I can agree with. Where we go in FY24-25 is a continuation of previous annualised encapsulations, many of which have a dramatic short term impact but, as the years pass, mean less and less.

Of the exceptional headline grabbing events, the 1987 crash was a nothing, except if purchases were made close to the top. The tech boom and bust of 2000 was painful if sanity had been abandoned prior. The GFC of 2007, which flowed into 2008 when the drops came and didn't encompass stability until 2009, had an element of of panic which created opportunity. If one's psychological settings allowed. And, otherwise, it is just a "Wall of Worry".

There have been a few other whoopsie moments along the way but prudence generally wins through. I don't see the upcoming FY to be much different.

With a diminishing definition of Long Term, the focus is on income and managing risk, which means not selling at fire sale prices. I remain an advocate of Farleigh's Trading Rules.

I hope the last FY was good for all, and that the coming year is better.

Garpal Gumnut said:

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As another financial year draws to a close it has occurred to me what happiness is in investing and trading. And it is not making a profit, although that is important. It is rather being comfortable and having few regrets. Or at least not thinking too much about past errors nor when the lord of chance Sir Ko Chun rules against my moves to answer by becoming angry. Thus as with many endeavours it is the experience rather than the result that I try to keep front and centre, but then it was a successful year. Perhaps the next may not be so. And I will not be so so magnanimous to the good knight Ko.

This southerly turn in my fortunes however is not being touted by the bulls. July it is said is a painful month for bears, purely on the figures over the last 20 years. That is as opposed to other months, particularly June. For me this sixth month in the calendar year was one where I lost some of my "winnings" and on the other hand even loosened some longstanding shares from my SMSF for good profit and trimming others for capital losses. I also aged another year, as we all do, and thus my concept of short, medium and long term trades has shifted, so much so that I may discard the concept of long term.

The world has become more complex in 2024, the Israeli and the Palestinian cousins are now quite open about their long term plans for each other and the concept of a fair resolution to this biblical conflict appears further away than it ever did. Neither bunch do themselves much credit in the process and seem content in bringing the rest of the world in to conflict via the Persian and the American cousins. As if this did not make investing more difficult the Russian and Ukrainian cousins seem as set in their fratricidal conflict as ever with the former clinging to allegiances with others such as the Chinese and N. Korean cousins who frankly despise Russia.

Banks all over the world are unsure which way interest rates will move and in all probability will have to consult financial journalists and politicians for guidance as when or in what direction interest rates will move. What chance do I have of predicting this. Fifty percent, no more no less. Inflation though is taking off and families are being cruelled with high mortgage obligations and high rent. Our elected representatives from both the capitalist right and from those who pretend not to be capitalists on the left continue to invest for themselves and their families in negatively geared houses and a perusal of a change in investments on the parliamentary register is probably all one can hope for as guidance from Canberra as to where to invest. Is there enough rope to hang them all?

My only prediction for next financial year is a consolidation and sideways moves on the charts. Unlike many in the ASF community I am unable to predict the future. My excuse is that of the schoolboy " The dog ate my MACD Sir. " I shall continue to watch price and volume, support and resistance and my simple faithful RSI. I will of course continue to read the many wise and enjoyable posts on ASF.

So, HAPPY NEW FINANCIAL YEAR. May you all have few regrets and experience good fortune and be safe and well in FY 2024-2025.

gg

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The long term:



Some market truisms:

1. Markets fluctuate between too high and too low; and
2. Markets 'mean revert'; and
3. This is driven by the interplay of fundamental forces and investor psychology.

Currently the fundamentals are horrible.

Investor psychology is still speculative? Maybe, but that worm may well be turning.

Is your risk manageable and within comfortable sleep limits?

jog on
duc

Totally agree with you on the oil market being such a wild card. I’ve been trading for about 10 years now, and it’s amazing how global events can flip things around. I remember a few years back when oil prices crashed and it felt like everything was in chaos. It’s definitely worth keeping an eye on those bigger trends and seeing where they lead. It’s what keeps trading interesting for me!

The ASX continues to disappoint. It is where a goodly amount of my SMSF sits so I'm not about to cash out and lose my good franked divies and steady capital appreciation. It is a shame that our index takes so long to move compared to the American markets and then when NY gets hammered we get similarly done over. Just a whinge from Paradise. Speaking of the USA I've noticed that many of the tip sheets and managed funds ( only the free information as I don't subscribe to any paid ) are beginning to get the vapours about the upcoming US elections, and Ole Joe Cadaver and the Bronzed Lunatic. Many are combing through their policy statements and advisers columns to divine where the markets will go post Nov. 2024. I did read one sage in the Financial Times who reckons it doesn't give a toss which one of the pee diapered duo crawl over the line. There were facts and figures with dates and elections both close as in Gore v Bush and also landslides. It mattered not, policy nor sanity wise who became president., the markets just do their "own thang" as a young lady whispered in my ear many years ago in Atlanta Ga. when I was penniless and happy.

And now the New York Times and the other left fascist elitist press have woken up that Ole Joe has Alzheimers. Too late. The Lunatic will get in as knowing the Democrats they'll pick someone else who it is found was born in the Kalahari and not the Catskills, who sleeps with poodles, and once swore at a waiter in a wheelchair. I am a Democrat by Nature but it has been difficult to be loyal to the Left anywhere with all the intersectional bullsh*t they go on with.

So an oil friendly Prez does not equate to a good POO and equally a Green one does not make it fall. Zilch. No difference. I have begun to ration my time in reading financial information out there because there is so much on which to waste valuable time. I got a free trial sub to the Intelligent Investor a while ago which is now expired and frankly I didn't find it useful. This could be because I've limited the number of stocks on my watch-list or it could be because although interesting there is much foam, repetition and unless it is something blazingly new which generally gets out to the masses is not worth the money. Just my view. Alan Kohler is a nice bloke and a great commentator and writer but not worthy of a sub in my realm.

So my guess that Gold would move quickly was wrong, by move I mean go gangbusters. I've probably been spoiled in assessing gain as I've had some kopecks in Nvidia since last year and it is difficult not to compare everything else to Jensen Huang's behemoth. It has enabled me to have meaningful conversations with some lout in JBHiFi about chips and memory and I will be up to speed in every way with semiconductors when the US Market unexpectedly crashes taking my stocks with it. AI is a exciting field and I enjoy trading the area but it plays hell with my sleep/wake cycle. Some days I feel like one of that old Pommy smellathon's Chimpanzees that she saved in Kenya back in simpler days. Maybe be I'll cash out and live a normal life. But then what if Nvidia go up x10 again after the 10/1 split. LOL LOL. You have to laugh.

i enjoy trading and investing. I'm still in the game and the children and grandchildren expect to inherit something. The fourth Mrs Gumnut while not treating me with huge deference allows me to manage our SMSF and the accountant is happy. No thoughts this week on Sectors although if Nvidia gets a big boost after their next earnings report it may be worthwhile looking at Aussie stocks that would benefit from AI. Stay happy, safe and well in health and investing.

gg

Garpal Gumnut said:

But then what if Nvidia go up x10 again after the 10/1 split.

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now i don't know how stock splits work out in the US

but that often happens on the ASX ( unless a take-over intervenes first )

but am not interested in Nvidia , unless it triggers a market meltdown , and then i will be focused at opportunities in the meltdown

Garpal Gumnut said:

The fourth Mrs Gumnut

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The fourth! My God keep it in your pants Garpal. What are you - the last of the romantics? We're just a resource to most females (MGTOW)

.. the Bronzed Lunatic

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Gratuitous offensiveness noted

finicky said:

The fourth! My God keep it in your pants Garpal. What are you - the last of the romantics? We're just a resource to most females (MGTOW)

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just doing what he can to save them from being desperate enough to settle down with me

Never settle for a settler divs (seriously)

I trust everyone here on ASF had a good and profitable week investing and trading. Although for those of us who dabble in the NASDAQ and on the NYSE, FTSE and other markets the week has not yet ended. What an interesting one it was. Ole Joe Pigeonbrain still holds on to his perch by a long ageing toe-nail and rumours of his demise have been put to bed for another week unless you watch TV or read newspapers or go on the internet. I don't believe any news or event concerning Joe nor the Bronze Incontinent Lunatic will make any difference to the markets save for a brief up or down depending on what idiot cousin is in charge of the funds and brokerages should it happen out of hours. One wonders was it always thus, Reagan was full of tangles towards the end but as an actor he was able to hide it. Joe ... well Joe is a sad case. The Democrat Gang will not forgive him should they lose their grip on power. There isn't really a Republican Gang, just ole Trump, bluffing his way through with the godbothering Evangelicals and Deplorables.

Just watching comments on ASF over the past week it would appear that those who did nothing this year would be well ahead of active traders. @Dona Ferentes informs me that CBA is now $131, who wouldataut? I can remember picking it up for $90 not too long ago but selling too early. And then there is that awful conundrum, should I get back in again. Decisions, decisions, decisions. It is certainly true that this little muppet is unable to predict markets with any degree of reliability. Then, I remember my mistakes more than my wins, and am risk averse by nature. Although contrarily I enjoy big bets more than little ones. You only go about this world once, or twice if your pick of the godbothering boats is the correct one, so you may as well enjoy yourself.

BHP has been decisive and dumped nickel. It is too bad for Kalgoorlie and the other hamlets who depend on mining that are affected. It is good for BHP shareholders. There needs to be more decisiveness in actions by our large companies. This ESG nonsense has gone on for too long. ASIC which every man and his dog knew to be a total waste of space is now laid bare to be the equivalent of budgie smugglers after a prostate operation, advertised to be useful but really leaving a smelly puddle. ASIC ignored the reality of criminal actions in our investing world locally.

I cannot think of anything that Albanese has done this week to increase the wealth of Australia. He appears to be caught in the headlights fine-tuning actions to attempt winning the next election. Dutton's nuclear idea has merit particularly if a mini-reactor were to be built in Toorak or Rose Bay where Australians would not be affected were there to be an accident. I suppose we get the politicians we deserve. At least Australia comes out on top as a country where a significant majority of children can expect to earn more than their parents. Let us hope that the cousins from the two Middle East tribes who call Australia home do not attempt to turn the country in to another UK or Europe, countries where every bastard has another country or state whose allegiance trumps their domicile. Religion ... bugger it. Tribalism ... bugger it. Then in my own way I've probably been guilty of similar.

I sincerely believe Gold is ready for a BIG break up. It appears comfortable at nudging $USD2400. Here's a thought. Sometimes numbers deceive. When Gold was $1000 an oz. a 5% gain took it to $1050. At $2400 that same 5% gain will take it to $2520. Just sayin'. Then you must remember your are reading the rant of someone who can never predict the markets with any degree of accuracy.

Anyways Gold and BHP would be my picks for next week, and CBA for @Dona Ferentes . NVDA had a shocking session last night our time and I'll be picking up some more if it drops to $118.

Stay safe, happy and well my fellow ASF members.

gg

I didn't post in August, not that it wasn't an eventful month but sometimes I get very lazy with communication and investing. So I haven't bought or sold on the ASX except to add to my PMGOLD which initially turned against me and caused some angst. The turn was mostly due to a combination of the AUD/USD rate as Gold is sold in $USD and bought by Aussies in $AUD. The Americanos won't let aliens buy their Gold for some reason. Gold at one stage looked set to breach $2500 so I had another large bet in the expectation, it instead retraced. For some reason this affected me strangely and I became quite blue, more than blue, depressed. Looking back on it I can't explain it. I figured before buying that it could happen but for some reason got upset when it did. It just goes to show that your mental state, well mine anyway can be affected by trading and vice versa. Recently I was in a very good mood and got carried away and bought Intel as a recovery bet and again it retraced. Somehow this hasn't affected me although I'm holding with a small loss.

The volatility geopolitically has been interesting and my Gold hoard is looking good, overall now approaching the best performer in my SMSF and although not the largest holding, nearly so. Hopefully the $USD will gain strength against the Aussie and Gold will appreciate. Everyone says the latter is a near certainty which worries me a bit, but I'll go with the flow for the moment.

I'm increasing my exposure to the semiconductor space on the US market and am considering looking seriously at the alt finance, IT and s-c space in Australia. I know zilch about and area on the ASX which has been very profitable for me on the NASDAQ. So that is my task for the rest of September and October before the end of the year runup to Christmas which has traditionally been good for the Australian bourse. I've stayed away from the penny end of the ASX and admire the determination and skill of my fellow ASX members who chase rare earth, Gold and bio startups with some success.

Anyways, enough from me. Good investing and trading from me to you all.

gg