DeepState
Multi-Strategy, Quant and Fundamental
- Joined
- 30 March 2014
- Posts
- 1,615
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- 81
I've been thinking how the themes and concepts in Orwell's '1984' are coming to be.
eg. Orwell's 2+2=5 as 'fake news'. Fake news has been shown to be many times more powerful and influential than the real thing. BS stories have huge click rates among the plebs and Twits.
Doublespeak = political correctness. There's also 'lifestyle correctness'. Are you living the lifestyle that the media says you should live?
Psychological manipulation by huge corporations such as Microsoft, Facebook, Google and Amazon and media outlets.
http://www.sparknotes.com/lit/1984/themes.html
The guy is a raving narcissistic lunatic with no concept of truth or decency and an utter opportunist. [/MEDIA]
Nonetheless, trying to get an objective viewpoint and consider the other perspective, I duly bought and read the book. I am speechless. The guy is a raving narcissistic lunatic with no concept of truth or decency and an utter opportunist. I suppose that really is presidential material.
Agree, I believe China will openly take charge there, and they may even be behind the rocket failure;IMO, what happens wrt NK in the next few months, it will be something along the lines of the Cuban missile crisis. NK gets assurance the US will not invade and in return China reigns in NK. As an aside, what's the lifespan of a carrier group if things got really hot? I'm guessing ten or so minutes.
pity the NK rocket scientists being tortured right now...
so some good news at last for the NK rocket scientists?Unlikely. They don't have enough to spare. If the DPRK was a genuine contender they wouldn't have spent 10 years trying to get a fairly simple bit of rocketry going. Those Taepodongs were supposed to be the game changer for them, but they've amounted to nothing and they still have NFI on how to strap something useful on the end of a missile. Self-evidently they are missing a Wernher Von Braun.
funny how I share this quote and scary how facts match theory when seen under that light.1984 should be , can I say should have been? universal mandatory reading.http://www.news.com.au/finance/work...a/news-story/76bc26365c9cb3922d1ac088686a4b53
"If those in charge of our society - politicians, corporate executives, and owners of press and television - can dominate our ideas, they will be secure in their power. They will not need soldiers patrolling the streets. We will control ourselves". -- Howard Zinn, historian and author
Thanks DS, highly personal answer here:EDGE: Can you point out what yours is?
1. If I were to ask what your reason is to believe that you can take money out of the market, what would it be?
2. If I then asked, are you in a position to show proof of this, could you?
3. Whatever your response to 2. above, are you able to say who you are taking these returns from? [Not the name of the person, but a general set of market participants of some kind...like other tech traders or large retail investors and the like]
IMF Key risk scenario from a Trump Expansionary Fiscal Policy:
1. Spends more money to stimulate economy.
2. Mostly goes on consumption stuff, not on supply side enhancements.
3. Inflation gets lifted more than expected.
4. Interest rates rise faster than anticipated.
5. US Fiscal position deteriorates because of higher interest burden.
6. Long bonds rise as term premium normalises due to fiscal risks, USD climbs as a result
7. Finances of EM countries are stressed....
EM Growth suffers
EM loans get stressed....yadda yadda
Eventually someone will go in the sovereign debt space.
What is the largest expense to the Australian budget?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-...ng/breakdown/2017/social-security-and-welfare
1) Welfare
What is the largest subset of this expenditure??
????????
Uninformed people say aboriginals, dole bludgers.
NO
People don't always like this answer....
Look for yourself to see the truth.
The truth is justified by social conventions and people usually strategic methods to get the middle class welfare and the health benefits associated with that.
Of the major nations: Japan is right up there, with France and Italy not too far behind.
Not quite sure what you are intimating, but here is the info:
View attachment 70887
With the Welfare part further expressed as:View attachment 70888
Largest = welfare
View attachment 70892
Largest= Assistance to the aged
Read between the lines.......
An interesting fact not mentioned much obviously on our PC medias: in France, the people voting the most for the FN (far right party) are the youths!Instead of Robin Hood - stealing from the rich to give to the poor, or oligarchy - stealing from the poor and giving it to the rich...we have geriatarchy - stealing from the young to give to the old?
View attachment 70898
Yeah, so...is that some sort of shocking revelation that social welfare in the form of aged pensions and related support, together with healthcare (which is disproportionately utilised by the very young and very much by the old as well), happen to be the biggest budget items and projected to grow for quite some time, and rather rapidly (see below), as the Western populations age and dependency ratios rise?
It's like this everywhere, so I am having a hard time reading between the lines to find something which is shocking.
Is there widespread fraud of 52 year olds falsifying their ID to appear as 60 year olds to get a pension?
Are there many people getting themselves a third parent to boost household income?
Whereas it may appear that government is increasingly captured by big business and the rich, creating a plutarchy, perhaps government is increasingly held hostage by old timers in a form of of a politically organised geriatarchy - The Geezers and Wheezers' Party? Instead of Robin Hood - stealing from the rich to give to the poor, or oligarchy - stealing from the poor and giving it to the rich...we have geriatarchy - stealing from the young to give to the old? These bloody baby boomers... and then defaulting on the next generation after propping up asset prices, leaving a wake of deflation and scorching the environment. That's after they've departed from economy???
Clearly the lines are too narrowly spaced for me to read-between. Would you mind actually stating what you have in mind?
View attachment 70898
I am afraid here as well we have this focus on the retirees sacrificing our future for short term electoral gain.Sad but common in the west and demography will not help
OK. Thanks (to both OT and QF). Just needed to know that you had in mind an 'unreasonable' favouring of the older generation as something of an unspoken, secret, injustice. It's not a secret. So why does it happen?
Your facts are not disputed from my perspective. These are indeed the benefits which accrue to the pensioners. Is it unreasonable?
There is no way for governments to fund the cost of healthcare and support for the aged if steps are not taken to correct the trajectory. That's not a secret. Health and welfare for the aged are always the biggest features of western federal budgets and the cause of the projections looking so dire. It is accepted. That is why I am puzzled that this issue, in these recent exchanges, are expressed as some sort of revelation that must not be said.
So, what should happen in your view? Should the elderly be starved? Forced to move in to cramped government hostels? Put in to work-for-the-pension schemes? Made to walk up stairs instead of get pushed on wheel-chairs?
Is it your contention that those who are asset rich but income poor should be means-tested for pension entitlements? I think that is a reasonable perspective. However, Australia has always placed a very high value on the sanctity of the personal home which is why it is exempt from tax and pension assets considerations. It is a shared value of our society. It is widely accepted that we should not have to move out of our homes when aged. The young will eventually become the old. So we all have an eye to our future as well when considering how to share the burden.
The sanctity of the home is not unique to Australia. Take a look at the US. In Australia, our mortgages are not tax deductible, for a start.
If assets are moved to alternative arrangements to reduce income in an illegitimate way, that's an issue. But this sort of thing goes on in all sorts of places. The tax transfers happening within superannuation. Negative gearing. Family trusts. Dividend imputation. Capital gains tax relief.....all involve transfers of some kind, particularly to the asset rich...and those who just retired tend to have the most assets on average.
So...what to do?
+ Encourage own savings. Compulsory Superannuation 1980s via Paul Keating and Hawke. Genius move.
+ Discourage pension reliance. It you are on a full pension, it's not a great life. Escalate below inflation to allow structural adjustment.
+ Delay retirement age
+ Introduce some element of asset testing
+ Limit public health care services to bare essentials and encourage private healthcare and insurance
+...
Notice how many of these are already in place or in train.
So, what should happen in your view? Should the elderly be starved? Forced to move in to cramped government hostels? Put in to work-for-the-pension schemes? Made to walk up stairs instead of get pushed on wheel-chairs?
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