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I think certain institutional investors (perhaps pension funds, insurance companies, charitable organizations or banks, etc) are buying these negative yielding bonds are perhaps doing so because their hands are tied in various ways.
Perhaps their mandates dictate they must hold a certain percentage of government bonds or that they must hold debt above a certain level credit rating. Also they may need something highly liquid due to the huge sums of money involved, hence the buying of German Bunds or Japanese Government Bonds. Perhaps they prefer this to U.S. government debt which has a positive yield because they don't want the U.S. dollar exposure and its expensive to hedge (or they don't want the long-term counter-party risk). I don't know I am just speculating here. It is my gut feeling that institutions buying these negative yielding bonds are not buying it because its a good investment (obviously). Also it would be interesting to know how much of these bonds are being bought/monetized by central banks?
As interest rates decline, the value of these liabilities increases in a present value sense.
While I understand the mathematics of DCF calculations where a lower discount rate leads to a higher valuation that seems like an absurd accounting methodology to use because we are talking about a liability is not an asset.
When you are talking about liabilities if interest rates go down you are paying less interest on your debt for variable rate products. Obviously a debt which has a lower interest rate payable is less of a burden/liability than a higher interest rate debt of the same amount all things being equal. As for fixed rate debts, while theoretically the value of the liability may rise if you want to buy out the debt (e.g. if it is a bond) at current market value you must pay above par, in reality does this actual happen for pension funds? If you own a a five year government bond paying 2% interest p.a. and interest rates rise and the price and value of your bond drops, if you hold the bond to maturity assuming no defaults occur your return will be 2% p.a. irrespective of what the bond price does in the interim. The reverse is also true, if you are borrowing and interest rates drop and the market value of the debt goes up, if you pay out the debt at maturity/par then the theoretical increase in the value of the liability does not affect you.
It seems like distorted accounting/logic to say that if interest rates drop a debtor is worse off, with the specific exception being a situation where they are forced to buy back/pay out the debt above par.
I just can't get my head around the concept that declining interest rates are bad for a borrower/debtor (unless for some reason you must buy out the debt at market value above par). Do home home owners with a fixed interest rate mortgage panic when interest rates go down because the the net present value of the liability increased? That is absurd, if anything they will be happy that if rates stay low when their fixed rate expires they can rollover onto a lower variable rate. As for those with a variable rate mortgage they will be happy to paying a lower interest rate today.
Deepstate, should we all go out and buy bonds and gold? Seems a no brainer, must a be a crowded trade by now though?
As for bonds. I am currently undecided. "It's complicated."
Hi D/S, Do you have a view on corporate bonds???
Reading the new Margin Trading Customer Agreement from IG Markets. Crikey, if the font were any smaller I'd have to enlarge it on a photo copier.
Lol I'm sure they sneak in using some technical language that basically allows them to close down your position if margined over and in negative territory, which easily happens when the spread goes super wide during volatile events while they are the market maker and price giver and that they can take the other side of your position without hedging themselves.
Swiss bond yields now negative out to 50 years
Deep State,
i hope you do not mind me "hijacking" yopur thread:
I found teh following quite interesting:
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/the-economy/deutsche-bank-sees-world-economy-investment-reversing-for-the-next-35-years-20160909-grdacy.html
with a few more details on:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-08/global-demographic-shift
Can not agree more and when last quarter GDP figures are moved from recession to best of type as the result of more taxpayer money going into a new medecine listed on the PBS and an helicopter program (Hardware O/S purchase, not the throwing money out of the window type, actually not that different"And in financial news tonight, real beard trimming quality gains have pushed the June qtr GDP figure to 1.5%..."
It is very hard to find a reliable way to secure a real return right now.
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