THE WHAT that will make you consistantly PROFITABLE?

[tech/a]

So now lets see what happens when we have the same win size but the Risk is deminished by trading with a tighter stop.(Sure other factors like consecutive losses do come into play).
In this case you would need a Minimum of $50000 to trade with a 2% stop in my veiw.Clearly bigger wins mean you need to trade less winners (Longer term makes this easier to achieve) Short term trading with small wins clearly shows that you must trade much higher % winners.

Note the win size of 10:1 on a 5% risk is the same as a 25:1 win size on a 2% risk

Rule (3) YOU decide when to enter the market and where to place your stop.
Let the MARKET tell you when its clearly time to exit the trade your in

 

[tech/a]

So along the line of preserving capital and controlling risk so we can aim at a greater Risk/Reward Ratio remember every time you take a trade!


You only have control of your capital at the point of ENTRY(determining parcels size risk parameters and why your buying it) once your in a trade the MARKET has total control,movement in price up or down is out of your control.
Never let the market take control of your capital outside of your set parameters,stops and exits.Never redefine your KNOWN parameters


The only other variable controlling Positive Expectancy is CONSECUTIVE LOSSES and INITIAL DRAWDOWN

 

[obiwan]

techa, your posts are very insightful, I am sure you will become a successful trader unless a series of losses befalls you or you succumb to an external psychological event.

Have you tested your system over long time periods with drawdown amounts ? Over the last 15 years would you have been blown out ? You need to test it over a long period if you assume you will be trading long term. This is assuming the previous distribution of wipeout events will be the same in the future (which it may not be).

How much % capital do you have deployed in your trading ? Have you tested the parameters of your portfolio ? what is your trading account beta, alpha, and the beta alpha for your whole portfolio ? In a general sense you may make money from trading in the long term with your system but your capital maybe better deployed over multiple time periods by not trading. If you are getting a high return from deploying 20% of your assets in your trading but it is too risky to deploy 100%, you maybe better off employing 100% in a more efficient portfolio using mutual, hedge funds or whatever, and going to the beach or getting a dayjob (this is the beta issue on your trading account). Just an thought, cheers, obi

 

[tech/a]

techa, your posts are very insightful, I am sure you will become a successful trader unless a series of losses befalls you or you succumb to an external psychological event.

You have just described the failure of ANY trader.In terms of successful my definition is obviously poles apart from your ownYou seem to be under the impression that which I write is theory--------It is based upon fact and has been traded live for the last 2.5 yrs with a return on investment of 435% in that time------I guess that out performs your Mutual Funds

You may like to visit the site on which "TechTrader" resides

http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/Forum8/HTML/000390.html

http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/Forum8/HTML/000091.html


Have you tested your system over long time periods with drawdown amounts ? Over the last 15 years would you have been blown out ? You need to test it over a long period if you assume you will be trading long term. This is assuming the previous distribution of wipeout events will be the same in the future (which it may not be).

Getting up to speed on the 8 mths of testing involved in the method above will take you about 3 weeks just to read the 300 pages.I have it on disk if you or anyone else would like a copy.In answer to your question in 20000 portfolio simulations over the last 8 yrs the method returned a 100% success rate.Maximum drawdown 14% minimum 5.6% so No.
Accuracy in testing due to data unavailability (Delisted issues) beyond 8 yrs(For stocks) has me limit all testing on all methods I develope to 8 yrs


How much % capital do you have deployed in your trading ? Have you tested the parameters of your portfolio ? what is your trading account beta, alpha, and the beta alpha for your whole portfolio ? In a general sense you may make money from trading in the long term with your system but your capital maybe better deployed over multiple time periods by not trading. If you are getting a high return from deploying 20% of your assets in your trading but it is too risky to deploy 100%, you maybe better off employing 100% in a more efficient portfolio using mutual, hedge funds or whatever, and going to the beach or getting a dayjob (this is the beta issue on your trading account). Just an thought, cheers, obi

Currently $350K--- yes---Read the documentWhat Im presenting here is NOT A SYSTEM its the REASON you or anyone can develope ANY TRADING METHODOLOGY into a profitable way to trade.If you yourself were trading profitably you would notice that wether you knew it or not the REASON (The WHAT) that makes you profitable lies in the text in this thread

As for deployment of funds.I have yet to see a fund which I cant out perform.
Infact over the last 2.5 yrs my compulsory super (with fortunately a pitance as a balance) has returned negative.
I have a Day job which gives 15 other people a day job as well.
My trading only uses a portion of Nett worth as does Property holdings and Subdivision developement.

Unlike many I dont aspire to wanting to trade for a living.(Although current returns would supply a fair living I would think by most peoples standard).
Firstly its as boring as hell,and secondly I dont need to.

My reason for posting here is to give something back! To make everyone Think and to give people the opportunity to discuss topics with someone who deals in fact and not theory

tech

 

[tech/a]

techa, your posts are very insightful, I am sure you will become a successful trader unless a series of losses befalls you or you succumb to an external psychological event.

You have just described the failure of ANY trader.In terms of successful my definition is obviously poles apart from your ownYou seem to be under the impression that which I write is theory--------It is based upon fact and has been traded live for the last 2.5 yrs with a return on investment of 435% in that time------I guess that out performs your Mutual Funds

You may like to visit the site on which "TechTrader" resides

http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/Forum8/HTML/000390.html

http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/Forum8/HTML/000091.html


Have you tested your system over long time periods with drawdown amounts ? Over the last 15 years would you have been blown out ? You need to test it over a long period if you assume you will be trading long term. This is assuming the previous distribution of wipeout events will be the same in the future (which it may not be).

Getting up to speed on the 8 mths of testing involved in the method above will take you about 3 weeks just to read the 300 pages.I have it on disk if you or anyone else would like a copy.In answer to your question in 20000 portfolio simulations over the last 8 yrs the method returned a 100% success rate.Maximum drawdown 14% minimum 5.6% so No.
Accuracy in testing due to data unavailability (Delisted issues) beyond 8 yrs(For stocks) has me limit all testing on all methods I develope to 8 yrs


How much % capital do you have deployed in your trading ? Have you tested the parameters of your portfolio ? what is your trading account beta, alpha, and the beta alpha for your whole portfolio ? In a general sense you may make money from trading in the long term with your system but your capital maybe better deployed over multiple time periods by not trading. If you are getting a high return from deploying 20% of your assets in your trading but it is too risky to deploy 100%, you maybe better off employing 100% in a more efficient portfolio using mutual, hedge funds or whatever, and going to the beach or getting a dayjob (this is the beta issue on your trading account). Just an thought, cheers, obi

Currently $350K--- yes---Read the document What Im presenting here is NOT A SYSTEM its the REASON you or anyone can develope ANY TRADING METHODOLOGY into a profitable way to trade.If you yourself were trading profitably you would notice that wether you knew it or not the REASON (The WHAT) that makes you profitable lies in the text in this thread

As for deployment of funds.I have yet to see a fund which I cant out perform.
Infact over the last 2.5 yrs my compulsory super (with fortunately a pitance as a balance) has returned negative.
I have a Day job which gives 15 other people a day job as well.
My trading only uses a portion of Nett worth as does Property holdings and Subdivision developement.

Unlike many I dont aspire to wanting to trade for a living.(Although current returns would supply a fair living I would think by most peoples standard).
Firstly its as boring as hell,and secondly I dont need to.

My reason for posting here is to give something back! To make everyone Think and to give people the opportunity to discuss topics with someone who deals in fact and not theory

tech

 

[obiwan]

techa congrats on finding a profitable system.

If you have used leverage, you have to adust performance for this ie. if I invested in the ASX index fund over the last year with 70% leverage then my return would be roughly 100% over the past year cf index performance 30%.

Basically you can find something with positive expected return, leverage it up and get higher returns. For instance residential property in 2002-3 with say 40% appreciation in sydney over 2 years would have returned 400% return on equity with 90% leverage (or 800% with 95% leverage etc).

From memory the beta on your portfolio captures it's volatility relative to the market. What you want is something with lower volatility than the index compared to return. This is GOLD because then you can lever it up more than you could the general index (and get a greater return with same volatility).

2.5yrs is excellent. However a portfolio probably needs to be around for 10 years before you can say it is consistently successful.

I have just scaled out of property this year so have had a minimal share portfolio in the last 4 years. To me it is not about whether I can trade successfully but where I can get the greatest return adjusted for risk. Sometimes this will not be the sharemarket, and I have never had a time when I felt the way forward was to trade my own account.

So what is the purpose of being a trader, is it to prove something to yourself or to make money ?

 

[tech/a]

2.5yrs is excellent. However a portfolio probably needs to be around for 10 years before you can say it is consistently successful.

Well the best I could do was 20000 portfolios over 8 yrs with 100% success rate I wasnt going to wait 10 yrs to find out if I was right!

I have just scaled out of property this year so have had a minimal share portfolio in the last 4 years. To me it is not about whether I can trade successfully but where I can get the greatest return adjusted for risk. Sometimes this will not be the sharemarket, and I have never had a time when I felt the way forward was to trade my own account.

Your choice Im still in Property (In Adelaide) Have been since 96 been in the market as well,had I not then I would not have made good returns on BOTH but thats MY choice.
Your showing the way you go about investment and what suits you,I have no idea what suits anyone here as to their way of trading or investment.
My aim is to show no matter HOW you go about creating more wealth,buy applying the contents of this thread your guarenteed success.
Youve applied it yourself possibly without knowing it

So what is the purpose of being a trader, is it to prove something to yourself or to make money ?

Both for me I actually enjoy it!.You could say the same of a business owner(whats the purpose of being a Business Owner---blah blah).
That really is a stupid statement whats the purpose of doing anything

On Leverage Im aware of that its quite deliberate.




OBI

I hope you continue with a description and presentation in laymans terms your investment stratagy/s.Often small gems can be extracted and implemented into our own methods

 

[idribble]

OK Tech/a.

I've read most a lot of the info on your selection method and it appears to be very, very sound. My opinion is that it would, without doubt survive a downturn in the market, in fact I believe that your stocks would outperform in a bad market. One valuable book, amongst many that I have read for enjoyment on the market is "Market Wizards". Interviews with top traders. Your method seems to take the more reliable market indicators mentioned in this book, and then use time to gain your profit.

(Incidentally, everyone should read Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds ..... Charles Mackay).

Comments by the obiwan are valid and good on him for noting his observations.


cheers

 

[tech/a]

Dribbles.

Your method seems to take the more reliable market indicators mentioned in this book, and then use time to gain your profit

I have read both books and also Schwagers 'Schawager on Futures"
Im not aware of these "More reliable indicators" Can you list them for me?.

Sorry its purely coincidence if they are similar.

While the universe is important (The stocks we trade) Its profitability(Techtrader) is due to the combination of all aspects to test and trade at a positive expectancy.

tech

 

[stefan]

tech,

I have a question. I had a bit of reading up to do after the Christmas break. After all your postings about your method of trading and ways to stay profitable, I may have missed why your method would survive a downturn in the market or even outperform in such conditions as dribbles has put it.

All I could gather is that your stops would prevent you from losing too much money but that doesn't give you a profit in a down market. It only saves you some big losses which of course is very important as such. But what makes you think that your method would still produce winners while the market gets hit badly?

In the end you are buying shares which are vulnerable to all sorts of impacts that can't be controlled. As you have pointed out correctly, once the investment is made, you lose control. All you can do is move quickly to prevent a financial disaster.

If we assume that California would get hit by an earth quake of the magnitude we've seen in Indonesia, surely your system would fail. I'm not trying to proof anything. I'm just trying to put the bits and pieces together to better understand your confidence in your system.

You may have tested it with the last 10 years of market data but what does that really tell you for the future? A stock may have good technical indicators that would make it attractive to buy, but in a downtrend market that may be of little value. I take it that you would use this period as an opportunity to buy shares that fit into your system but don't perform because of the overall market condition?

Thanks for a bit of enlightment here. I'm lost in the many posts.

Happy trading

Stefan

 

[tech/a]

tech,

I have a question. I had a bit of reading up to do after the Christmas break. After all your postings about your method of trading and ways to stay profitable, I may have missed why your method would survive a downturn in the market or even outperform in such conditions as dribbles has put it.

All I could gather is that your stops would prevent you from losing too much money but that doesn't give you a profit in a down market. It only saves you some big losses which of course is very important as such. But what makes you think that your method would still produce winners while the market gets hit badly?

Beats me ask dribbles its his opinion.Ive never made any comment about Techtrader.

In the end you are buying shares which are vulnerable to all sorts of impacts that can't be controlled. As you have pointed out correctly, once the investment is made, you lose control. All you can do is move quickly to prevent a financial disaster.

If we assume that California would get hit by an earth quake of the magnitude we've seen in Indonesia, surely your system would fail.

Again beats me I'll let you know when it happens

I'm not trying to proof anything. I'm just trying to put the bits and pieces together to better understand your confidence in your system.

My confidence is based upon exhaustive testing which gives Positive expectancy which has proven to be the case in the last 2.5 years trading nothing more nothing less

You may have tested it with the last 10 years of market data but what does that really tell you for the future? A stock may have good technical indicators that would make it attractive to buy, but in a downtrend market that may be of little value.

True of any market indicator including FUNDAMENTAL.Ive never talked indicators yet all of a sudden your under the impression you think I think that the indicators I use are what gives me the confidence to trade as I do.
Clearly you havent UNDERSTOOD that which I write!! Thats fine as little as 3% do.

I take it that you would use this period as an opportunity to buy shares that fit into your system but don't perform because of the overall market condition?

No They would only be bought if they conformed to the entry criteria,after that the market will do what it does and they will either Fail,do nothing,or Profit.
Thanks for a bit of enlightment here. I'm lost in the many posts.

Dont know if youll be that enlightened

Happy trading

Stefan

tech/a

 

[idribble]

tech/a, the more reliable indicators I allude to, which are few in number include;

buying a stock at an all time high, supposedly less than 5% of investors do this (your system does this) and,

finding a stock that has a new product or is in an emerging market and (your system does this),

monitoring that stock to ensure that the reason for buying has not altered (your system does this also).

cheers

 

[tech/a]

tech/a, the more reliable indicators I allude to, which are few in number include;

buying a stock at an all time high,

It actually buys the Highest high for the last 70 periods which also crosses the highest value for the last 10 periods. supposedly less than 5% of investors do this (your system does this) and,

finding a stock that has a new product or is in an emerging market and (your system does this),
It does?

monitoring that stock to ensure that the reason for buying has not altered (your system does this also).
I do?
cheers

Thanks
tech

 

[stefan]

Clearly you havent UNDERSTOOD that which I write!! Thats fine as little as 3% do.

Your postings never seize to amaze me...

I'll post some more later on. Have to call it quits for today.


Happy trading

Stefan

 

[stefan]

Tech,

With all due respect. I have to tell you that the stuff your writting is really not that difficult to understand at all. If only 3% would undestand it then this planet would be dominated by apes. (Which I will refer to in my posting further down).

Most unprofitable traders have a poorly matched execution style, or a good one they haven't mastered yet. They fail to recognize critical errors in their methodology because it was copied from a book, or because they made money on bad decisions in a bull market.

It's important to realize that profitable traders know all the weak points in their strategies and exercise damage control at all times.

You can't understand your methodology until you analyze your profits and losses. Identify its weaknesses quickly, and then decide if it really works at all.

I'd say the most difficult thing is to confess that your system doesn't work.

BUT:You may discover that your whole approach to the market isn't right for your lifestyle, emotional nature or long-term goals. For example, you could be a daytrader who hates risk. Bad things will happen when your system doesn't match your personality.

The fact is that most of us don't follow our own rules.

Discipline and money management go a long way toward becoming a profitable trader. However you trade, you must be confident in the positive expectancy of your style or methodology.

System traders use backtesting to gauge the positive expectancy of their systems. My question arose because I'm not a system trader and as such can't do much backtesting at all. Probably more like retail traders choose entry and exit without this methodology, so they need to compensate through extensive record-keeping and analysis of each trade result.
That's something you mentioned yourself a while ago in one of your many postings. I was merly checking if I missed anything in between.

The sell side of the positive expectancy equation is more important than where you buy. Which brings us back to the monkey system posted a few months ago. It's possible to make money in the same way as a chimp who throws darts at a dartboard. But the monkey still has the same problem as the losing trader: He doesn't know when to take money off the table.

Positive expectancy requires a robust exit strategy. Libraries have been filled with money management techniques, such as cutting your losses, riding your winners and trading adequate reward/risk. But somehow, losing traders continue to outnumber profitable ones by a very wide margin.

One aspect of positive expectancy is more difficult to manage than any pure numbers game. All trading styles experience drawdowns, and profitable ones are no exception. Which is why you get a bit upset when someone simply points at a bad performing stock which you picked, not realising that losing is part of the game. What makes the difference is realising that you're sitting on a loser and dumping it in time.

Traders routinely abandon profitable methods because they hate to lose money. They stop following perfectly good rules because they aren't getting the instant gratification they want from the markets.

Sums it up nicely and will increase the 3% to at least 5% in no time.


Happy trading

Stefan

 

[tech/a]

Tech,

With all due respect. I have to tell you that the stuff your writting is really not that difficult to understand at all. If only 3% would undestand it then this planet would be dominated by apes. (Which I will refer to in my posting further down).

Stef,They think that the secret to success is in the analysis no matter what that analysis is.Simply profit dosnt come from the analysis it comes from the combination of all factors you place into a system in such a way that they are consistantly profitable.It is possible to fluke it if you have a sound knowledge of what is likely to give a positive expectancy.However youll not(Conclusively) know unless you have enough data and capability to test your results.Sytems trader OR Discretionary.

Most unprofitable traders have a poorly matched execution style, or a good one they haven't mastered yet. They fail to recognize critical errors in their methodology because it was copied from a book, or because they made money on bad decisions in a bull market.

Regardless of WHY their method wont make a profit its often that their way of trading just wont yeild a profit!They cant know until they try and fail.This is the vast majority of traders.They are underprepared as they dont have the necessary results input to be aware of the results(output).

It's important to realize that profitable traders know all the weak points in their strategies and exercise damage control at all times.

Knowing the weak points doesnt help unless you KNOW if those weak point are just weak points and you still make profit OR the weak points are the reason for loss.Subtle but important.Damage control or Risk management should be an intrugal part of any method but alone will not guarentee profit.

You can't understand your methodology until you analyze your profits and losses. Identify its weaknesses quickly, and then decide if it really works at all.

And most cannot do this due to lack of data(Length of test period) and testing capability.Their analysis is normally inconclusive at best and inaccurate at worst.

I'd say the most difficult thing is to confess that your system doesn't work.

To who! If its losing money No need to confess just get the hell out of the method!

BUT:You may discover that your whole approach to the market isn't right for your lifestyle, emotional nature or long-term goals. For example, you could be a daytrader who hates risk. Bad things will happen when your system doesn't match your personality.

Very true.

The fact is that most of us don't follow our own rules.

True but most dont know if the rules we apply actually should be followed we have NO way of knowing if we follow our method if in the long run we will be profitable.Most find that they either are treading water(A win here and a couple of losses there) and frustrated with poor results or just plain losing!

Discipline and money management go a long way toward becoming a profitable trader. However you trade, you must be confident in the positive expectancy of your style or methodology.

They help but as Ive said before You can be fully disciplined and follow a losing method of trading.You can have great money management and still bleed to death.Confidence comes when you know that even with a catastrophic event that youll survive.Youll be in the position to answer all possible what ifs.

System traders use backtesting to gauge the positive expectancy of their systems. My question arose because I'm not a system trader and as such can't do much backtesting at all. Probably more like retail traders choose entry and exit without this methodology, so they need to compensate through extensive record-keeping and analysis of each trade result.
That's something you mentioned yourself a while ago in one of your many postings. I was merly checking if I missed anything in between.

Stef Your up against it and so will I be this year when I re enter short term trading(already trading a bit).I think there are things we can do to put the odds in our favor to be positive in expectancy and profit.But we wont ever be sure.We can however with sound practice eliminate catastropy.I was aiming my postings to those in this position.

The sell side of the positive expectancy equation is more important than where you buy. Which brings us back to the monkey system posted a few months ago. It's possible to make money in the same way as a chimp who throws darts at a dartboard. But the monkey still has the same problem as the losing trader: He doesn't know when to take money off the table.

Positive expectancy requires a robust exit strategy. Libraries have been filled with money management techniques, such as cutting your losses, riding your winners and trading adequate reward/risk. But somehow, losing traders continue to outnumber profitable ones by a very wide margin.

Its simple for those with the technology to test their ideas.
(1) Win More often than you lose.
AND OR
(2) Profit more than you risk
(3) Have maximum consecutive losses and amount lost less than that which will render your trading capital ineffective.

People still lose because they JUST dont know the above until after the fact.

One aspect of positive expectancy is more difficult to manage than any pure numbers game. All trading styles experience drawdowns, and profitable ones are no exception. Which is why you get a bit upset when someone simply points at a bad performing stock which you picked, not realising that losing is part of the game. What makes the difference is realising that you're sitting on a loser and dumping it in time.

There are 2 types of Drawdown.
(1) Initial drawdown---the most dangerous if to large can render trading capital in effective.Can also make a trading methodology impossible to trade using leverage.Good systems I have found have 3-12% maximum initial Drawdown.

(2) Is Peak To Valley Drawdown which is the decrease in profit from a peak in profit to a valley during a period of no profit.This can simply occur as your in trades which are open (Which maybe very profitable) and some close out.The new ones could be stopped out in a string of losses,these will be recorded yet the open profit of other trades wont be until the trade is exited.Not as dangerous.

Traders routinely abandon profitable methods because they hate to lose money. They stop following perfectly good rules because they aren't getting the instant gratification they want from the markets.

Stef Unless they KNOW its a PERFECTLY GOOD method they should abandon it.If they KNOW its a profitable method AND the losses are within those parameters tested thenyes they are exiting prematurely.
FRANKLY I really think to make a consistant profit you are really up against it without the ability to test your theories BEFORE trading.Rather than losing a $1000 on a trading Idea I think your betterr off investing it and a heap of time in sound analysis software.

Sums it up nicely and will increase the 3% to at least 5% in no time.

PERHAPS.


Happy trading

Stefan

tech/a

 

[suzanne]

Dear Tech /a and everyone else,

Please correct me if I am wrong in my assumptions on what you have written.

I have re - read your postings again and must admit I don't understand all but that is to be expected at this stage in my learnings of such a vast topic.

But am I correct in assuming that what you just said is that one must test their methodology before committing money. Are you also suggesting that one needs to invest in software like that you suggested previously to help confirm your trading plan before you commence. But like you said if one hasn't any previous data (eg losses or profit results) or trading results to compare or analyse how does one do so.??

Is it correct that the software you would recommend is Metastock and Tradesim??

Still learning

Cheers

Suzanne

 

[tech/a]

Dear Tech /a and everyone else,


Please correct me if I am wrong in my assumptions on what you have written.

I have re - read your postings again and must admit I don't understand all but that is to be expected at this stage in my learnings of such a vast topic.

But am I correct in assuming that what you just said is that one must test their methodology before committing money.

Suzanne.The short answer is YES.
Traders will recognise wether they are getting the results they want.If their results are inconsistant or poor or just plain losers then they recognise that something is wrong with their trading methodology.If your a trader using $20K or less in the market place then committing $5K and countless hrs to your trading method may not be practical.If however you either INTEND to trade or actually trade $100K or more then I really think that to trade without knowing how your trading plan will perform to the best of your abilities,would be financial suicide.

Are you also suggesting that one needs to invest in software like that you suggested previously to help confirm your trading plan before you commence. But like you said if one hasn't any previous data (eg losses or profit results) or trading results to compare or analyse how does one do so.??

Yes Im am suggesting that if your trading reasonable sums your far better investing in some software than throwing Money into the market without any knowledge of wether your method has a chance to consistantly make a profit--if your in it for the long haul then most definately.Data suppliers supply historical data and the software can then test your trading idea/s on the past data to see how it would have performed(in simplistic terms).
However there is much self education in not only trtading technique but also software use,then ofcourse youll need to speak the softwares language.

I know this sounds daunting but you are entering a professional field and you need to serve your apprenticeship.We have all done it----Im trying to help with some fast tracking here!.It is worth the time and effort to become a competent trader----you can take it anywhere in the world and its the greatest Parttime or Full time occupation I can think of --Overhead and (Eventually) time wise----damned boring though!

Is it correct that the software you would recommend is Metastock and Tradesim??

For a "P" plater Id go Amibroker its priced right ,powerful and many use it so you have a great deal of support.I only use M/M Tradesim as its what Ive had for 10 yrs(Tradesim 4 yrs)its also very powerful but more expensive.
Wealthlab is the only other I know of that is around the mark.The Best is Trading recipies but thats mega $$$s and dos based so it drives like a truck with flat tyres.Was talk about going windows based---
Anyway I didnt go Amibroker as I couldnt be bothered learning yet another language.

Still learning

And quickly Ill bet Be patient and protect your $$$s its worth it

Cheers

Suzanne

tech/a

 

[tech/a]

But More importantly!!

There will be many who dont have the money initially to invest in software
OR
The MAJORITY of traders here will and do Trade in a discretionary manner.This means that chances are they cannot convert their trading methodology into formula language for testing.

INFACT from years of trading Shorter term on and off,Im now convinced that to trade in short timeframes, trading mechanically is not necesserily the answer.I have looked at many trading methods short term and for a PORTFOLIO basis (more than 3 stocks at once) am yet to find a profitable short term method.For singular stocks and FUTURES YES.

(LONGTERM which I prefer is a Different story and if trading larger capital bases I would strongly suggest you look at longer term trading.)

By far the majority trade in a discretionary manner working mainly on theory and hearsay with entry exit and stop placement,position sizing and moneymanagement.
However the combination of all this into a trading method which will be long term profitable really is hit and miss.
There are common denominators to developement of a positive expectancy methodology and that is what Ive presented here.
By using this knowledge when devising YOUR trading method will place you in at least a position which has a higher rate of opportunity for success.

You STILL cant be sure long term---but far better than pot luck.

This also applies to those using methods which cant be programmed into language effectively.Gann and Elliot Wave analysis are some.
Fundamental Analysis another.

No matter what style you choose to trade applying the basics of best trading practice will give you perhaps the EDGE you need to turn from mediocre to profitable.

tech

 

[phoenixrising]

Suzanne,

If you have not used a software package as yet,
incredible charts from incrediblecharts.com is a
good starting point.It's free also and gets you
started in technical analysis.

Cheers

PR