But I did see a crash coming even as early as 2007; I still have the correspondence between friends and I, and I saved these on my other computer literally telling them to get out of the markets back then. The numerous telephone calls were not recorded by me though, but they all remember them. I was selling my own stock August of 2007 after the up-tick rule was lifted in the US. Now did I need to read about so-called quality economics then? No. There are always opposing views by scholars anyway and like I suggested before, they can pigeon-hole their views as much as they like. It doesn't matter to me. I'll pick what ever I see as useful whether it be on a finance 'show' or an article. My day job etc doesn't allow me the chance to follow or read about economics like a scholar might. I won't change my methods either as I see advantages to the way I think and go about things.
Now how about the large percentage of so called experts that missed the GFC, even after the clear warnings in 2007 (and before)? Economists on 'shows' like CNBC and Bloomberg got it wrong repeatedly and so did large corporations that kept piling large borrowed funds into risky markets.
I guess you and all those 'experts' can trade and formulate opinions any way you like. It makes no difference to me. I'll keep doing it my way. Hope that's alright with you?
ok so no-one is interested, my bad... i'll leave it at that and withdraw from this thread thoroughly defeated...
personally i hope that none of the things that i fear are going to happen ever do... i'll be pleased to be told in 20yrs time 'see all your worrying was for nothing!'
but i'll leave with the quote of one of the men i most admire in history... mr thomas jefferson:
"I sincerely believe that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies, and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale."
”” Thomas Jefferson
bandicoot76, with you all the way. On a hoiliday weekend you are not going to find many of the in-depth about. Hang in there, you are very much appreciated.
And agree, the bankers are the crooks so have some barter material about for when they get caught out.
unfortunately: "who is john galt"
over & out.
Hah, really? Now you are going to pose as an objectivist?unfortunately: "who is john galt"
over & out.
unfortunately: "who is john galt"
over & out.
Hah, really? Now you are going to pose as an objectivist?
This thread is one big pile of WTF.
Uncle, the recession ended in 2009.
In the future, if you would like to stay up to date with business cycle dates, you can check the NBER's website:
http://www.nber.org/cycles/
Cheers
Food Stamps Program -In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity
By that measure.
GDP can be manipulated, which shows up as government expenditure in my previous chart. When that stops, GDP will drop, and they will have another NBER recession.....only matters to the bobble heads who believe the mainstream propaganda distributors.....
So government spending is classified as manipulation now
If the government withdraws fiscal stimulus before the recovery is self sustaining, then there is the potential for another recession. But why on earth would they want to do that? I know that the political situation over there is currently pretty bad, but I really can't see either party wanting to be the ones responsible for forcing a recession in a country where unemployment is already so high.
So government spending is classified as manipulation now
If the government withdraws fiscal stimulus before the recovery is self sustaining, then there is the potential for another recession. But why on earth would they want to do that? I know that the political situation over there is currently pretty bad, but I really can't see either party wanting to be the ones responsible for forcing a recession in a country where unemployment is already so high.
Hah, really? Now you are going to pose as an objectivist?
This thread is one big pile of WTF.
Well, yes. That's the whole point of the government 'stepping up to the plate' and filling the hole left by non spending private sector, only it is leaving a huge government debt behind, and no certainty that the 'recovery' is self sustaining. In fact the latest data suggest it is not ie Philly Fed Manufacturing Index just plunged from 43 to 18! Company margins are non existent.
The problem will be, when this is realised, that they (the US Fed etc) will have spent all the ammo already with QE and will therefore have no choice but to make the hard choices ie cut spending ie pretty much everything really.
The fact that neither party wants to be the one seen to have initiated a recession by cutting spending means that it can & will get much worse very quickly. And it has to be spending cuts as tax income is not sufficient. Under 'the plan' the assumption is that income from personal tax will (needs to) grow by over 50% over the period allowed for the deficit to be contained. This as well as spending cuts of similar draconian proportions.
Just because something seems to be implausible doesn't mean it's not possible.
One only has to look at the 20 year chart of the Dow and it can be seen where recoveries (dot.com etc.) are rebuilt on the release of low interest money and now of course no interest money.
If you think technical analysis has explained the AUD/USD rate going from 90c to $1.07 you're kidding yourself.
My view is a potential 3rd week reversal pattern (next week)… I think AUD will continue to trend upwards and break parity later thisyear and then into higher highs in 2011….
But the most robust trending pattern (after reaching .9979) is to see
the market reverse down and then continue higher from November's
50% level towards higher highs in the first Quarter for 2011 (14th October)
Technically, the primary cycles won’t be confirmed until the end of 2010, but already the price action in November and the 4th Quarter suggests
more gains into higher highs in 2011 (5th November 2010)
my expectation is that the
trend will continue towards higher highs in 2011 :- $1.0612 (8th January 2011)
Under 'the plan' the assumption is that income from personal tax will (needs to) grow by over 50% over the period allowed for the deficit to be contained. QUOTE]
if this 50% increase in personal tax happens you will DEFINATELY see some serious "going john galt" happen!
It is my take that there has been no recovery. Not of substance anyway. Q/e by money creation from thin air is not a recovery.
One only has to look at the 20 year chart of the Dow and it can be seen where recoveries (dot.com etc.) are rebuilt on the release of low interest money and now of course no interest money.
Unless value goes back to a measure of physical output (which is the real GDP) there will be no recoveries.
Though one may not entirely agree across the board, a lot can be learned by reading Von Misers writings. The web page I use is:- http://mises.org/
The big mistake has been political interfearance in economic systems. Making cheap money etc. There needs to be more regulation on controlling the crooks (read banks) and less on free trade. IMveryHO
Unless value goes back to a measure of physical output (which is the real GDP) there will be no recoveries.
someone recently attempted to label me as a lunatic (ie insane). my father in law is a psychologist and one of his definitions of insane is "doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different outcome/result"
dont you think, after looking at the past history of the dow, that it must be the ppl in charge of the monetery system who are insane as this is PRECISELY what they have been doing repetitivly for years... using the same control methods (inflation/deflation) over and over to try to control the financial system then acting suprised when it doesnt work?
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