The state of the economy at the street level

macca · 4 February 2020

The problem is that the economy here has been artificially propped up for the past 10 years or more

When the Govt borrows money to give $900 to each person to blow, it encourages the mentality of borrow, borrow, borrow and spend spend spend.

In reality the Govt should have stayed within budget, Oz would have taken a small slow down, a whole generation learns that life is not all roses and the country still has a manageable debt.

When the whole world takes a big hit and we take a small one, then there are still kudos there for the Govt and its management of the economy.

This spending mentality has encouraged people to use CCs to the limit, when they hit the limit they then switched to Afterpay etc, now they have maxed them out and reality rears its ugly head.

Too many frivolous shops and cafes for people to waste money in, too much money hidden in attics and suit cases from drugs, too many people on Govt benefits, too easy to order things online, excess in the extreme and this slow down in Oz is just the beginning of a retail clean out.

I would not own any retailer except Bunnings, all others, including shopping centre owners, I would sell (if I still owned any)

SirRumpole · 4 February 2020

macca said:
I would not own any retailer except Bunnings, all others, including shopping centre owners, I would sell (if I still owned any)

Yep, Bunnings has virtually knocked out all the competition around the country. Where other stores exist they are miniscule in comparison.

One wonders if a lot of smaller areas can support Target, BigW and KMart in the same shopping centre.

They basically sell the same stuff at similar prices so one or more of them will probably have to go at some stage.

macca · 4 February 2020

SirRumpole said:
Yep, Bunnings has virtually knocked out all the competition around the country. Where other stores exist they are miniscule in comparison.

One wonders if a lot of smaller areas can support Target, BigW and KMart in the same shopping centre.

They basically sell the same stuff at similar prices so one or more of them will probably have to go at some stage.

Our Kmart was recently refurbished, they tossed all the useful bits and enlarged the ladies and kids clothing section. They also enlarged the decorative side of things, curtains, cushions etc all the pretty things that ladies like.

Not much left of interest for men, us blokes are being forced to go to Bunnings for something to hit or paint

SirRumpole · 4 February 2020

macca said:
Our Kmart was recently refurbished, they tossed all the useful bits and enlarged the ladies and kids clothing section. They also enlarged the decorative side of things, curtains, cushions etc all the pretty things that ladies like.

Not much left of interest for men, us blokes are being forced to go to Bunnings for something to hit or paint

Basically the only thing that interested me in KMart was DVD's , and they ditched those, but as you say, women and kids are doing well, lots of shiny toys to pressure Mum and Dad into buying.

Humid · 4 February 2020

macca said:
Our Kmart was recently refurbished, they tossed all the useful bits and enlarged the ladies and kids clothing section. They also enlarged the decorative side of things, curtains, cushions etc all the pretty things that ladies like.

Not much left of interest for men, us blokes are being forced to go to Bunnings for something to hit or paint

No sausage in a roll at Kmart

qldfrog · 4 February 2020

Humid said:
No sausage in a roll at Kmart

Kmart allows access to chinese stuff at chinese price.
Others sell the same at Australian price, inc bunnings
Case in hand: pool crawly diaphragm
Bunnings $18 a piece, other local providers $24 to $25
Ebay: $9 for 2, inc postage...and GST

tinhat · 4 February 2020

sptrawler said:
Is the the beginings of a turn around for the economy?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/australian-house-prices-rising-every-230000031.html
From the article:
Australia’s property revival is spreading across the country with prices now rising in every major city.

Sydney and Melbourne continue to lead the rebound, with prices climbing 1.1% and 1.2% respectively in January, according to CoreLogic Inc. data released Monday. Even Perth, where a 5 1/2-year downturn has hammered property values, is seeing positive movement, with prices up 0.1% in the month, and 0.4% in the past quarter.

All up, prices across the eight state and territory capitals rose 0.9% in January, CoreLogic said.

Hooray, at last, go Perth.

macca said:
The problem is that the economy here has been artificially propped up for the past 10 years or more

When the Govt borrows money to give $900 to each person to blow, it encourages the mentality of borrow, borrow, borrow and spend spend spend.

In reality the Govt should have stayed within budget, Oz would have taken a small slow down, a whole generation learns that life is not all roses and the country still has a manageable debt.

When the whole world takes a big hit and we take a small one, then there are still kudos there for the Govt and its management of the economy.

This spending mentality has encouraged people to use CCs to the limit, when they hit the limit they then switched to Afterpay etc, now they have maxed them out and reality rears its ugly head.

Too many frivolous shops and cafes for people to waste money in, too much money hidden in attics and suit cases from drugs, too many people on Govt benefits, too easy to order things online, excess in the extreme and this slow down in Oz is just the beginning of a retail clean out.

I would not own any retailer except Bunnings, all others, including shopping centre owners, I would sell (if I still owned any)

So we are basically just a banana republic. We have been for a while now. Relying on a never ending building boom fueled by never ending immigration is not just a recipe for ecological disaster and lower quality of life, it is economically unsustainable and a waste the potential talent of the nation's people as it diverts too many resources (and overseas sourced borrowings) into an industry that is just a dead end in terms of creating both human and fixed capital capacity that we can leverage into meaningful (foreign currency earning) industry.

Place on-top of that the fact that the fiscal system is so structurally buggered that we can only balance the federal budget if there is a mining boom. Then add in the myriad disincentives and inequalities in the tax system.

My father was a tradesman so I have no bias against people who work in a trade, but I've never seen or had to deal with so many overpaid lazy under-talented bogan redneck tradies (and their ridiculously over decked-out utes and dual cab 4x4s) in my life.

Unfortunately, tragic circumstances dictate that there is going to be a construction boom on the eastern seaboard caused by the bushfires so there will be no need for any rate cuts but there will be fiscal deficit for the foreseeable future.

tinhat · 4 February 2020

moXJO said:
Walking around one of our large shopping centers yesterday and it was lucky to have 30 people in there.
I noticed one dessert place had hocked off half their shelving off the wall and only had 3 flavours of ice cream left. Couple other stores had shut down. Big W was lucky to have 5 customers. Really quiet. I would not want to be paying those rents.

When the GFC hit I walked around my local Westfield and identified shops that I thought were sure to go out of business; a shop that only sold tea; one for knives; one that only seemed to sell candles. Then I looked at all the car yards that had only just opened on the highway; jeep, honda, bmw and on and on. I thought, half of those are going to close. But no, the government handed out cash, kept cutting income tax and continued to piss the mining boom company tax bonanza up against the walls of those Westfields and car dealerships. Not a single one of those shops or car yards closed during the GFC.

moXJO · 5 February 2020

tinhat said:
When the GFC hit I walked around my local Westfield and identified shops that I thought were sure to go out of business; a shop that only sold tea; one for knives; one that only seemed to sell candles. Then I looked at all the car yards that had only just opened on the highway; jeep, honda, bmw and on and on. I thought, half of those are going to close. But no, the government handed out cash, kept cutting income tax and continued to piss the mining boom company tax bonanza up against the walls of those Westfields and car dealerships. Not a single one of those shops or car yards closed during the GFC.

They are going to the wall now. One shop DVD world(I think) which specializes in boxed dvd sets, figurines, comics, anime, etc just shut it's doors.

The desert place I mentioned before looks terminal. They were selling their own "special" tea as well. Now it's understaffed, tea and shelving all gone. And half the ice cream down to 3 flavours.
A lot of the food stores are gone.

It looks like recession to me. It's hard to imagine just how much pain that will unfold given everyone is stretched to the limit.

Now we have corona affecting multiple industries, that were already hard hit by rising costs. I'm looking for a black swan event to save us, but honestly it looks like we are taking the hit.

One of the car yards that has been in the area for years

Smurf1976 · 5 February 2020

SirRumpole said:
My father was a tradesman so I have no bias against people who work in a trade, but I've never seen or had to deal with so many overpaid lazy under-talented bogan redneck tradies (and their ridiculously over decked-out utes and dual cab 4x4s) in my life.

It's what happens when something is widely seen as an "easy" way to make money.

With any job it's best to have people who want to do that sort of work rather than those who are in it only because it pays well. If someone can't decide between engineering or medicine then the best advice is "neither" since they wouldn't need to think about it for a moment if they actually had a real interest in either field.

sptrawler · 5 February 2020

I would assume the rents in tourist areas of the East Coast are very high, with the massive coverage of the bushfires curtailing tourism and now the corona virus turning people off travel, it must be hurting big time.
Also why would anyone go to the East Coast, if you don't get caught up in a fire, you are bound to get caught up in a flood. The good old sensational press.
https://au.news.yahoo.com/east-coast-heavy-downpour-months-worth-of-rain-one-week-004616384.html

Smurf1976 · 5 February 2020

sptrawler said:
I would assume the rents in tourist areas of the East Coast are very high, with the massive coverage of the bushfires curtailing tourism and now the corona virus turning people off travel, it must be hurting big time.

I can see the fires and virus getting the blame for a recession when in reality the economy has been a bomb waiting for something to light the fuse for quite some time now.

It's like the GFC. Some of those paying attention were covering the issues, specific companies and the overall US mortgage lending situation, as early as 2002 so what unfolded wasn't even slightly surprising to them or to those who'd read their work. It was just an accident waiting to happen and in due course it did.

An economy based heavily on selling 3 bulk commodities, tourism and education with heavy reliance on a small number of buyers was always going to hit trouble at some point.

SirRumpole · 5 February 2020

Smurf1976 said:
I can see the fires and virus getting the blame for a recession when in reality the economy has been a bomb waiting for something to light the fuse for quite some time now.

It's like the GFC. Some of those paying attention were covering the issues, specific companies and the overall US mortgage lending situation, as early as 2002 so what unfolded wasn't even slightly surprising to them or to those who'd read their work. It was just an accident waiting to happen and in due course it did.

An economy based heavily on selling 3 bulk commodities, tourism and education with heavy reliance on a small number of buyers was always going to hit trouble at some point.

The only person I've heard lately say that we need to start making things again was Larissa Waters of the Greens.

I hope this particular virus starts to spread.

jbocker · 13 February 2020

moXJO said:
Big W was lucky to have 5 customers. Really quiet. I would not want to be paying those rents.

Cripes, in its day, there would have been more people than that roaming around the carpark breaking into the cars.
I do find large fluctuations in numbers at some odd times during the week and during that day, , it makes me think 'why' sometimes. Weather and sports events can affect the numbers.

moXJO · 13 February 2020

jbocker said:
Cripes, in its day, there would have been more people than that roaming around the carpark breaking into the cars.
I do find large fluctuations in numbers at some odd times during the week and during that day, , it makes me think 'why' sometimes. Weather and sports events can affect the numbers.

Couple of years back it always had a good stream of people. 90s it was packed, food court was always full early 2000s it was similar. Huge crowds.
Now the food court looks like a ghost town and over 90% of the original shops shut. A handful of new restaurants are just hanging on now.

Times change I guess.

ducati916 · 14 February 2020

In the US:

Credit card application rejection rate 16.9%
Credit card balance increase rejection rate 34.9%
Residential mortgage rejection rate 15.6% (up from 6.5%)
34% of households reported 'needing $2000'.

jog on
duc

Humid · 14 February 2020

Credit card interest rate is as bad as pokies
Screws the poor

sptrawler · 18 February 2020

Probably worth posting this article here, as well as the Holden thread, as it highlights what a few of us are saying about the difficulty maintaining Australia's current living standards.
https://www.drive.com.au/news/how-h...-wall-in-australia-123267.html?trackLink=SMH3
From the article:
Thailand – dubbed the Detroit of south-east Asia – will be a manufacturing hub from which it can drive that growth.

It will also see Great Wall building cars in the same place Toyota, Isuzu, Nissan, Mitsubishi, Mazda, and Ford produce their dual-cab utes, allowing the Chinese brand to tap into Thailand's vast supply chain and manufacturing knowledge.

Thailand used to be a cheap destination, it isn't anymore our $ has slid about 30% against the Baht in the last 10 years, meanwhile we think we are going to change the World.
I think people are in for a big shock, IMO it will be our World that changes.

SirRumpole · 18 February 2020

sptrawler said:
Probably worth posting this article here, as well as the Holden thread, as it highlights what a few of us are saying about the difficulty maintaining Australia's current living standards.
https://www.drive.com.au/news/how-h...-wall-in-australia-123267.html?trackLink=SMH3
From the article:
Thailand – dubbed the Detroit of south-east Asia – will be a manufacturing hub from which it can drive that growth.

It will also see Great Wall building cars in the same place Toyota, Isuzu, Nissan, Mitsubishi, Mazda, and Ford produce their dual-cab utes, allowing the Chinese brand to tap into Thailand's vast supply chain and manufacturing knowledge.

Thailand used to be a cheap destination, it isn't anymore our $ has slid about 30% against the Baht in the last 10 years, meanwhile we think we are going to change the World.
I think people are in for a big shock, IMO it will be our World that changes.

Anyone who is concerned with their personal safety and that of their passengers would not buy a Great Wall. They have abysmal crash safety standards and are cheap but nasty.

Maybe that will change but I'll be steering well clear of them for some time.

Dona Ferentes · 18 February 2020

Or some other east Asian manufacturers.
Seven airbags (=> 5 rating) won't save you if the chassis splits and it breaks apart.

The state of the economy at the street level

macca

SirRumpole

macca

SirRumpole

Humid

qldfrog

tinhat

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tinhat

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moXJO

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Smurf1976

sptrawler

Smurf1976

SirRumpole

jbocker

moXJO

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ducati916

Humid

sptrawler

SirRumpole

Dona Ferentes

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