The state of the economy at the street level

Smurf1976 said:

Can't even give them away and I mean that literally.

If you clear out someone's house, eg elderly person who's passed away or gone into aged care, or even simply want to get rid of your own stuff then you'll quickly find that they have zero value. Can't sell them, nobody turns up even if they're literally give away and charities won't take them either.

Fiction books still have some value though if they're recent or older ones if the author or the book itself is/was famous.

Only technical ones of value are niche interest things of an historical nature. The odd such thing has a significant value but only if you can find the right buyer which is usually someone who's great grandfather worked on the thing that's the subject of the book etc.

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You have to pay to get rid of them a lot of the time. The niche interest ones of a historical nature are good especially if they include hand made prints of places and people.

sptrawler said:

Along the same lines, I was reading that it would be a good idea to start and pick up DVD's that you think your kids might enjoy at a later date, as with streaming a lot of movies wont be available and eventually will be lost.

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DVDs are so cheap now you can pick them up for less than $1. I agree they will be lost or locked away in a subscription based service.

The problem with collectables like these are having an appropriate space to store them and an understanding partner

Dona Ferentes said:

printed on vellum, will last a thousand years. Acid free, a little less

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You know your stuff! These types of books are already pretty valuable another couple of decades should see some real gains as paper based reading material drys up.

Regarding DVD's etc, something I'll note from personal experience fairly recently:

Found some old B&W family photos circa ~1910. No problem at all since I need no special knowledge or equipment to look at the photos and read the hand written information beside them.

Also have some 8mm films made circa 1960. Have the projector too but it doesn't run. Realistically though a film projector is a purely mechanical and electrical device, there's zero electronics involved, and it's not going to be impossible to get it going. I haven't opened it up yet but almost certainly it's just going be a case of a perished drive belt or a broken wire and that's fixable stuff.

Now does anyone here expect that a DVD will in practice be playable in 100 or even 30 years' time? Sure the disc might work but are you going to have a working player to use it with?

Even if you did keep a DVD player with the DVD's, the electronics will deteriorate and the chance that someone a century from now can get a picture out of it is incredibly unlikely since even if they did get the player itself working, almost certainly no TV, monitor or whatever sort of display is around at the time will accept what will then be a well and truly obsolete input signal.

VHS and 3.5" floppy discs were both still current technology early this century but who here still owns equipment to use any tapes or discs they come across?

Personally I've got a VHS machine that runs but no longer have any 3.5" floppy drives. I'm probably the exception there though since I doubt that the average home still has a working VHS machine plus the required cables to connect it to any TV they also own. Some but most wouldn't these days.

Or go back a bit further. Who's got a working 5.25" drive and a suitable computer with it? Very few would still be able to use one of those today but they were still current technology less than 30 years ago.

In theory digital forms are far more permanent than anything printed etc but in reality nobody's going to be looking at any photo that anyone takes today a century later unless it's printed. The chance of it surviving in digital form, and that someone actually finds it and has the ability to look at it, seems incredibly unlikely.

A long way off topic though.....

Except in Qld where silverfish, termites and mould will make sure it will never reach 1000y

We did say things were improving didn't we, well the credit card debt has dropped to 2006 levels, now they know where the tax cuts and interest rate drops have gone.

https://mozo.com.au/credit-cards/articles/aussie-credit-card-debt-is-it-dropping-or-jumping

From the article:
According to official statistics released by the RBA, Australians’ balances accruing interest in November 2019 came to a total of $27.20 billion, $2.45 billion less than in November 2018.

Because of this reduction, it makes last November the lowest point for the country’s personal credit card debt since 2006, yep, that’s over a decade ago.

Like I've said before, everyone is happy with the junk they have, so most aren't replacing it.
To get people spending, they are going to have to push the E.V's harder, I reckon.

We did say things were improving didn't we, well the credit card debt has dropped to 2006 levels, now they know where the tax cuts and interest rate drops have gone.

https://mozo.com.au/credit-cards/articles/aussie-credit-card-debt-is-it-dropping-or-jumping

From the article:
According to official statistics released by the RBA, Australians’ balances accruing interest in November 2019 came to a total of $27.20 billion, $2.45 billion less than in November 2018.

Because of this reduction, it makes last November the lowest point for the country’s personal credit card debt since 2006, yep, that’s over a decade ago.
Like I said before, everyone is happy with the junk they have, so don't need to spend anything.
To get people spending, they are going to have to push the E.V's harder. IMO

sptrawler said:

We did say things were improving didn't we, well the credit card debt has dropped to 2006 levels, now they know where the tax cuts and interest rate drops have gone.

https://mozo.com.au/credit-cards/articles/aussie-credit-card-debt-is-it-dropping-or-jumping

From the article:
According to official statistics released by the RBA, Australians’ balances accruing interest in November 2019 came to a total of $27.20 billion, $2.45 billion less than in November 2018.

Because of this reduction, it makes last November the lowest point for the country’s personal credit card debt since 2006, yep, that’s over a decade ago.
Like I said before, everyone is happy with the junk they have, so don't need to spend anything.
To get people spending, they are going to have to push the E.V's harder. IMO

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I see that as a positive although it probably says more about people transitioning to BNPL than topping up for the rainy day.

I keep getting reminded by 99 about the evil of credit card debt when she keeps asking me for money I don't have

PZ99 said:

I see that as a positive although it probably says more about people transitioning to BNPL than topping up for the rainy day.

I keep getting reminded by 99 about the evil of credit card debt when she keeps asking me for money I don't have

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I see it as a positive also but am afraid you are right
Different lenders, not less debt
And might be harder to track on a national scale

The thing is the BNPL still has to be paid or reported on their balance sheet, it will be interesting to see if the debt has just moved, or been removed.

Smurf1976 said:

In theory digital forms are far more permanent than anything printed etc but in reality nobody's going to be looking at any photo that anyone takes today a century later unless it's printed. The chance of it surviving in digital form, and that someone actually finds it and has the ability to look at it, seems incredibly unlikely.

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I have some printed tax receipts that cannot be viewed after 12 months! Due to inks fading. Very frustrating.

jbocker said:

I have some printed tax receipts that cannot be viewed after 12 months! Due to inks fading. Very frustrating.

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We scan any receipts when we get a large purchase for this reason.

jbocker said:

I have some printed tax receipts that cannot be viewed after 12 months! Due to inks fading. Very frustrating.

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If the firm offers it, I get a link to the receipt via SMS and then download it to cloud. All major ones which have are printed are scanned to cloud. I think there is a phone app which you can use to scan them but I'm not too sure about that.

I even scan any traffic infringements I get just to remind myself of the dumb things I do!

In Today’s business troubles news:

Mosaic Brands, which operates retail clothing outlets under various brand names, has reported an 8% sales decline compared to the same time last year across its 1379 stores nationally.

Unrelated to that, a major nightclub in the Adelaide CBD has abruptly shut down and gone into voluntary administration citing financial reasons, ongoing losses, tough competition and so on. The place in question being HQ, now in Hindley St after previously operating at 1 North Tce.

Now I’ll take the clothing retailer more seriously than the failure of a single nightclub albeit a rather large one but nonetheless it’s yet another business that hasn’t been going well and viewed in the overall context it’s another sign of a struggling economy.

The overall pattern here, an almost constant stream of significant businesses failing or reporting losses or substantial drops in sales volume, is clearly a trend and looks rather too much like ~1990-91 to me. That was a pattern back then, another day another business in the news as struggling or outright closed.

I note that it seems to affect a broad cross section of society. For example there’d be close to zero overlap in the customer base of the numerous builders which have failed versus the customer base of a mass market nightclub. So it’s not limited to just one section of society, it’s looking fairly broad based.

To the extent there’s a common element well department stores, builders, fashion retailers and nightclubs do have one thing in common. They’re all mostly or entirely reliant on discretionary spending by consumers.

On a similar theme I was told McWilliams Wines recently went into administration even after a capital raising last year. I haven't checked if it is true or not. Non-drinker so at that level it's of no interest to me.

Smurf1976 said:

In Today’s business troubles news:

Mosaic Brands, which operates retail clothing outlets under various brand names, has reported an 8% sales decline compared to the same time last year across its 1379 stores nationally.

Unrelated to that, a major nightclub in the Adelaide CBD has abruptly shut down and gone into voluntary administration citing financial reasons, ongoing losses, tough competition and so on. The place in question being HQ, now in Hindley St after previously operating at 1 North Tce.

Now I’ll take the clothing retailer more seriously than the failure of a single nightclub albeit a rather large one but nonetheless it’s yet another business that hasn’t been going well and viewed in the overall context it’s another sign of a struggling economy.

The overall pattern here, an almost constant stream of significant businesses failing or reporting losses or substantial drops in sales volume, is clearly a trend and looks rather too much like ~1990-91 to me. That was a pattern back then, another day another business in the news as struggling or outright closed.

I note that it seems to affect a broad cross section of society. For example there’d be close to zero overlap in the customer base of the numerous builders which have failed versus the customer base of a mass market nightclub. So it’s not limited to just one section of society, it’s looking fairly broad based.

To the extent there’s a common element well department stores, builders, fashion retailers and nightclubs do have one thing in common. They’re all mostly or entirely reliant on discretionary spending by consumers.

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Is it just us (Australia) I wonder, or are other developed nations in the same boat ?

Very important to find out, either other nations as well as us are feeling the brunt of globalisation or we are just being stupid and behind the pack when it comes to innovation and entrepreneurship.

SirRumpole said:

Is it just us (Australia) I wonder, or are other developed nations in the same boat ?

Very important to find out, either other nations as well as us are feeling the brunt of globalisation or we are just being stupid and behind the pack when it comes to innovation and entrepreneurship.

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I think the industrialization index that was posted earlier in the discussion explains that, Thailand and a lot of other Countries are developing a technology based economy, as opposed to our resource/service based economy, this in turn has been reflected in our currency exchange rates.
They also don't have the burden of a welfare system, therefore there is more money to further expand their economy, a lot of the developing Countries that benefitted from the Lima agreement in 1975 are now well and truly ahead of Australia.
This is also the underlying issue with China and the U.S trade war, Australia really does need to wake up, all that seems to be happening is a process of dumbing down children to accept a new reality. Just my opinion.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Industrial_Development_Organization
Here is an RBA discription of our economy a bit old but show the trend.

https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2010/sep/pdf/bu-0910-1.pdf

The other issue facing Western Australia (I don't know about over East), is the coming down from the mining boom, 5 years ago everyone and his dog was driving around in a $70,000 ute with two jetski's or a boat on the back. That lifestyle had to end and normality had to return, with it a lot of retailers also cop the brunt of the shift.

sptrawler said:

Australia really does need to wake up, all that seems to be happening is a process of dumbing down children to accept a new reality. Just my opinion.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Industrial_Development_Organization
Here is an RBA discription of our economy a bit old but show the trend.

https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2010/sep/pdf/bu-0910-1.pdf

The other issue facing Western Australia (I don't know about over East), is the coming down from the mining boom, 5 years ago everyone and his dog was driving around in a $70,000 ute with two jetski's or a boat on the back. That lifestyle had to end and normality had to return, with it a lot of retailers also cop the brunt of the shift.

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With the state of the education system, at home we're trying to actively teach our kids what the local school doesn't have time to (because they're focusing on the disruptive kids that come from disadvantaged homes). We can't or don't want to afford the fees for private schooling so what else can we do?

In WA we also had the construction sector that held the line for a few years after the mining boom died down and whispers in that industry are expecting it to remain at this level or lower for the next few years, even as mining picks up again while the oversupply is taken up.

Smurf1976 said:

In Today’s business troubles news:

Mosaic Brands, which operates retail clothing outlets under various brand names, has reported an 8% sales decline compared to the same time last year across its 1379 stores nationally.

To the extent there’s a common element well department stores, builders, fashion retailers and nightclubs do have one thing in common. They’re all mostly or entirely reliant on discretionary spending by consumers.

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On the same theme, Jeans west has gone into administration.

https://www.smartcompany.com.au/industries/retail/jeanswest-administration/
From the article:
The business, which employs 988 people and has 146 stores across the country, is known for its denim products and maternity wear.

Jeanswest also has a number of international stores, including in New Zealand, which have not been affected by the Australian administration.

I must admit I haven't used them for years, Just Jeans is where we shop for jeans.

sptrawler said:

On the same theme, Jeans west has gone into administration.

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Harris Scarfe struggling to survive and closing many stores, EB games closing many stores, nightclubs and pubs etc closing, multiple national chain clothing retailers either going into administration or saying they're struggling and that's just in the past few weeks.

Individually the could be dismissed as outmoded business models or bad management or whatever but there's too many now, and they're starting to come just too quickly, to deny that there's an underlying problem.

A thought just occurred:

Friday last week = EB games closing multiple stores (national).

Monday = Curious Planet closing all stores (national).

Tuesday = Mosaic Brands, which operates 1379 clothing stores under various names, says sales are down 8% year on year (national).

Wednesday = HQ nightclub (Adelaide) and Jeanswest (national) both go into administration.

So it's literally a daily event at the moment and that alone is going to fuel concerns among the masses as they keep hearing of business closures literally every weekday.

SirRumpole said:

Is it just us (Australia) I wonder, or are other developed nations in the same boat ?

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I don't know but I think from the perspective of consumers in Australia the basic problem is:

1. Income. Wages are stagnant, there's a problem with underemployment and those relying in income from investments have seen the option of getting a return on cash disappear almost entirely.

2. Essential costs. Houses, rent, electricity, gas, water, any form of insurance etc all going up relative to incomes.

3. Concern about the future. The situation's obvious enough that even those with zero interest in economics or politics would be aware of it on the economic side. Then there's issues like climate change, warnings that the fires will send food prices right up and concerns about lack of leadership politically.

Put it all together and consumers are shutting their wallets. Coles and Woolies etc won't go bust but pretty much anyone selling non-essentials is in at least some danger I'd think.