The single, most important thing you've learnt as a trader

[craigj]

small locked in profits add up to large profits each month so find trades that you can get in and out of quickly

 

[Mr J]

Listen politely to the 80 to 90% that get it wrong.
Then timely do the opposite.

Something that might sum up this thread is that there is no single most important thing for trading, and that we vary in our strengths and weaknesses.

 

[Wysiwyg]

small locked in profits add up to large profits each month so find trades that you can get in and out of quickly

No disrespect about the way you trade but it is terrible advice purely and simply because large profits are made by letting winners run. Less transaction costs and less exposure to having a series of losing trades in short succession.

 

[Ashsaege]

No disrespect about the way you trade but it is terrible advice purely and simply because large profits are made by letting winners run. Less transaction costs and less exposure to having a series of losing trades in short succession.

i agree. You will never bank a big profit if you only bank small ones. you would need a very high win rate with this method... good luck!

 

[Grinder]

always leave yourself an out!

 

[cutz]

Predicting price tomorrow, the day after, next week is impossible, the only way to make consistent profit is via delta neutral strategies.

 

[Mr J]

Predicting price tomorrow, the day after, next week is impossible, the only way to make consistent profit is via delta neutral strategies.

It's a game of probability, not certainty. I'm not predicting what the price will be tomorrow, but whether it is more likely to go down or up. That can be predicted with enough accuracy to be profitable.

 

[kam75]

Great to see such a response. Well done

 

[Gillie]

Do your own research - take everything people say with a pinch of salt...

 

[mazzatelli]

Predicting/forecasting vol and distribution is easier comparably to price

It's a game of probability, not certainty. I'm not predicting what the price will be tomorrow, but whether it is more likely to go down or up. That can be predicted with enough accuracy to be profitable.

His point is he found a method that is not reliant on predicting price.

 

[nunthewiser]

To put pants on when leaving the house

 

[Gillie]

I'm sure that everyone has had this dream when they were in high school...

Turning up to school naked...

Always keep a spare change of clothes in your lockers!

 

[Grinder]

Predicting/forecasting vol and distribution is easier comparably to price

:iagree:

 

[lindsayf]

learning that knowing when not to trade is just as important as knowing when to trade

 

[Mr J]

His point is he found a method that is not reliant on predicting price.

He said that predicting price is impossible, so that would seem to be his point.

 

[mazzatelli]

He said that predicting price is impossible, so that would seem to be his point.

No, you made it the point.
He is advocating delta neutral, with focus on vega and convexity.

 

[greggy]

The most important thing I've learnt as a trader is when to stay out of the market. As per my posts back on this forum in 2007 I warned of a big fall and that I was going to take a break from trading. Too much froth. I only returned back in Mar 09 when a couple of broker friends told me that the market was going to fall to 2,000 points. These same characters were talking the market up in 2007.

 

[Mr J]

No, you made it the point.
He is advocating delta neutral, with focus on vega and convexity.

Given that it is the reason for why he trades the way he does, it was a certainly a point. We disagree, so let's leave it at that. There are more important things to argue about, such as his statement of price prediction being impossible :.

 

[treeman]

Don't let emotions do the trading for you

 

[mazzatelli]

Yes J,
You know everything.

This will be my last post on this as I'm a pedant [thanks Wayne] and bored waiting for the Dogs game
He talked about predicting price as in an absolute $value
You talk about a binary prediction - up or down