Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

Jump to new
young-gun said:
ahh but it has worked uncle festivus, it has held the states just above the point of total collapse for some time now;) causing their dollar to become increasingly less valuable as time passes. for their sake i hope they dont push QE3..... who am i kidding.. there will be qe3
Click to expand...
That doesn't constitute "working". It has simply been delaying the inevitable, "kicking the can up the road' to use the current cliche.

Just as Swan & Co claim they saved Australia from the GFC because with their hugely wasteful stimulus spending there were not two successive quarters of 'negative growth' (love that phrase!).

If anything, Australia is presently experiencing its own delayed version of the GFC which as Uncle F. has observed, has never actually resolved.

At some stage there's going to have to be a reckoning.
 
explod said:
Time and time again on these threads Tysonboss1 you say that you believe the share market will be higher in 12 months,

but you never qualify it with why.
Click to expand...

It will be higher because in that time people will relies that the world is not going to collapse, alot, and mean alot of the best companies Australia has are trading at prices below fair value, and it is crazy to think that they will not return to fair value without the wheels falling off the Australia economy,

As far as I can see the American recovery is slow, but it is happening, china and some of the less developed Asian countries are in a self sustaining growth cycle and Europeans will still continue to consume and work through their problems, the big economies there are stable.

I see a world economy that's going to continue to consume australian resources, and an Australian economy that's going to continue generating profits, if you don't believe that stick to your shiny stuff.
 
Tyson, taking them on again I see. Something faintly positive, suddenly you're a contrarian. :) Still, it's refreshing with so much gloom about.

A partial reference below, I do hope the author won't mind, please let ASF know if you do.
http://newsletter.sharecafe.com.au/email/link.php?M=3524696&N=228&L=1533&F=H
SHARE CAFE COMMENTARY
'The Further You Look, The Better It Gets' - 27/10/2011 -Author John Abernethy is the Chief Investment Officer (CIO), Executive Director of Clime Investment Management (Clime Group) and Chairman of Clime Capital Limited.

"...In recent weeks our clients would have noticed that our buying activities on their behalf have stepped up a notch. Their individual stock weightings and their time with us will to an extent determine the level of activity.

Right now it is our investment team’s belief that the Australian share market is approximately 15% undervalued as a whole. Individual stocks are being presented at greater or lower discounts and we are building portfolios along the lines that we have consistently outlined in our recent briefings..."
 
Julia said:
That doesn't constitute "working". It has simply been delaying the inevitable, "kicking the can up the road' to use the current cliche.

Just as Swan & Co claim they saved Australia from the GFC because with their hugely wasteful stimulus spending there were not two successive quarters of 'negative growth' (love that phrase!).

If anything, Australia is presently experiencing its own delayed version of the GFC which as Uncle F. has observed, has never actually resolved.

At some stage there's going to have to be a reckoning.
Click to expand...

sorry allow me to clarify - it did something;) unfortunately that something didnt quite hit the heights of which they originally intended or thought that it may.

at the end of the day you cannot make people spend if they no longer wish to spend
 
Tysonboss1 said:
It will be higher because in that time people will relies that the world is not going to collapse, alot, and mean alot of the best companies Australia has are trading at prices below fair value, and it is crazy to think that they will not return to fair value without the wheels falling off the Australia economy,
Click to expand...

unfortunately value is redundant. the value of a company is and always will be dictated by the market. once the value of a company is realised to be higher than what the market thought hedge funds are in before you or i get a chance to capitalise on some quick gains. unless of course you're an investor and you get lucky on a take over or something while holding(im assuming this is your current strategy - buy and hold). a good example of this is IPL. congrats if anyone rode that stock. its peak price was FAR greater than any perceived 'value' of the stock. but the market liked it, so it continued to soar.

IMO the market is what it is. it isn't currently oversold or underpriced, as thousands if not millions of people have decided this IS where it should be. i think buying in now thinking that things are at bargain prices is a mistake. wanna see some dirt cheap prices? wait until the end of next year:)
 
young-gun said:
IMO the market is what it is. it isn't currently oversold or underpriced, as thousands if not millions of people have decided this IS where it should be. i think buying in now thinking that things are at bargain prices is a mistake. wanna see some dirt cheap prices? wait until the end of next year:)
Click to expand...

On a relative basis the ASX is oversold, relative to the US for eg so the 15% figure could be conservative. Then again, we might have a better market price discovery mechanism than the US, who's markets are blatantly manipulated? We may be pricing in the fact that China is at stall speed, going by the latest data.

Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- A Chinese manufacturing index dropped to the lowest level since February 2009, bolstering the case for fiscal or monetary loosening to support the expansion of the world’s second-biggest economy.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 50.4 in October from 51.2 in September, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said in a statement today. That was lower than any of 16 economist estimates in a Bloomberg News survey that had a median forecast of 51.8. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.
An index of export orders contracted for the second time in three months as Europe’s failure to resolve its debt crisis dims the outlook for shipments to China’s biggest market.
Click to expand...
If only we had a central bank who understood the importance of propping up equity markets....?

dow aords comp.jpg

We are all connected now..........
 
I do not agree with you at all young gun.

Value can never be redundant, you are confusing marketprice, with value.

If the market always has value right, at what point in the last five years was Bhp correct, value does not fluctuate with market price.

Was Bhp value correct at $50, or 6 months later at $26 or later at $36 or then $48 or recently $33 or $38.

Obviously, it's price has flucuated massively, but it's value does not ,
 
Tysonboss1;668516]It will be higher because in that time people will relies that the world is not going to collapse, alot, and mean alot of the best companies Australia has are trading at prices below fair value, and it is crazy to think that they will not return to fair value without the wheels falling off the Australia economy,
Click to expand...

But what if people are realising that the world is going to collapse. You have failed to say why "people will realise that that the world is not going to collapse"

As far as I can see the American recovery is slow, but it is happening, china and some of the less developed Asian countries are in a self sustaining growth cycle and Europeans will still continue to consume and work through their problems, the big economies there are stable.
Click to expand...

America is not in recovery at all. The general media would have you believe that. Real unemployment is 22% if you count them all. The US only count those that have been looking for work in the last 12 months, after that the number is dropped off. There are countless other examples. Did you check "the Privateer" as suggested.

Fifty million are relying on food stamps.

And the following quote from Michael Panzer at http://www.financialarmageddon.com/

"Americans Down on Economy" (Poll Position)

By a 49%-35% margin, Americans say they expect the U.S. economy to worsen between now and the November 2012 presidential election.

Republicans provided the bleakest forecast, with 67% believing the economy will get worse over the next 12 months. Democrats were relatively optimistic, predicting an economic improvement by a 53%-31% margin. Independents sided more with Republicans, with 46% guessing the economy will worsen, 29% thinking it’ll improve, and 35% expressing no opinion.

"More Than 60 Percent of Global Consumers Downbeat: Nielsen" (Reuters)

Global consumer confidence remained weak in the third quarter with more than 60 percent of consumers saying it was not a good time to spend, and one-in-three North Americans saying they have no spare cash, a survey showed on Sunday.

The economic outlook, followed by job security, became consumers' biggest concern in the third quarter, overtaking worries about rising inflation, according to the quarterly survey by global analytics and information company Nielsen.
Click to expand...

I see a world economy that's going to continue to consume australian resources, and an Australian economy that's going to continue generating profits, if you don't believe that stick to your shiny stuff.
Click to expand...

In the long term of course but with China continuing to buy in, not only here, but in a big way in Africa, will it be on our terms?

Note also that BHP themselves are concerned about the steel price, as demand is falling off and new large pits are opening up in Africa. They also have soveriege risks problems emerging from South America. So the outlook, and that is without taking Europe's problems into account, are not a bed of roses by any means. Oh and nearly forgot, our carbon tax.

However I would be pleased to have some real facts put up on your bullish stance as we could do with some sunshine and lolliepops at the moment.

In the meantime, I'll just hang onto my shiny stuff.
 
Tysonboss1 said:
I do not agree with you at all young gun.

Value can never be redundant, you are confusing marketprice, with value.

If the market always has value right, at what point in the last five years was Bhp correct, value does not fluctuate with market price.

Was Bhp value correct at $50, or 6 months later at $26 or later at $36 or then $48 or recently $33 or $38.

Obviously, it's price has flucuated massively, but it's value does not ,
Click to expand...

you have just supported what i was saying. value is redundant. if price fluctuates regardless of value then how can value possibly matter, or be of any use?

obviously the market has no regard for it, or you would see the price sit 'somewhere around' apparent 'value'.

i never said the market has it right by any means. but the market certainly dictates price. the only time value really comes into play is when a stock is priced for the likes of a takeover. (even then who is to say that the buyers offer is the correct 'value') in which case as i said hedge funds get in way before we would have a chance, and the share price rockets to the proposed takeover amount in minutes. which seems ludacris to me:confused: but thats how it goes.
 
Because over time prices do follow value, and the longterm fluctuations will be in a trading range around the fair value.

So although xyz company maybe have a fair value of say $40 when the market is feeling pessimistic it can drop to $30 and when the market is overly optimistic it can rise to $50.00

That does not mean value is redundant, it makes knowing the fair value more important,
 
Tysonboss1 said:
Because over time prices do follow value, and the longterm fluctuations will be in a trading range around the fair value.

So although xyz company maybe have a fair value of say $40 when the market is feeling pessimistic it can drop to $30 and when the market is overly optimistic it can rise to $50.00

That does not mean value is redundant, it makes knowing the fair value more important,
Click to expand...

What a load of cr@p, fair value is nothing more then a guess. You're "fair value" on a certain stock might be 25% different to another analyst and the market will probably ignore both valuations.
 
nomore4s said:
You're "fair value" on a certain stock might be 25% different to another analyst and the market will probably ignore both valuations.
Click to expand...

Valuations are always estimates, especially when you are valuing them based on your own outlooks and objectives, But it is true that the market does follow value over time, Hence why the dot coms bombed, and Australias greatest businesses have shown growth over time.

Offcourse an analyst of BHP who thinks that Iron will be $X over the next five years will value BHP at less than one who thinks Iron will be $XX, But thats why a good value investor always uses conservative inputs in his valuation and insists on a margin of safty.

To think that a companies stock price will bounce around for ever paying no head to what you get for your dollar it simply wrong.
 
It seems as though a few people on this thread need to read about efficient market theory before they discount the concept of "fair value" or "intrinsic value" of a company.
 
Tysonboss1 said:
Because over time prices do follow value, and the longterm fluctuations will be in a trading range around the fair value.

So although xyz company maybe have a fair value of say $40 when the market is feeling pessimistic it can drop to $30 and when the market is overly optimistic it can rise to $50.00

That does not mean value is redundant, it makes knowing the fair value more important,
Click to expand...

agree to disagree. but its ok though! if a company was always priced exactly as it should be no one would ever make any money;) moves would become predictable and trading would be come easy
 
:topic

Aussie Stock Forums ASF, are slipping well behind in the polls at 'The Bull'.

http://www.thebull.com.au/the_stockies/forums.html

The above link will take you to the voting zone. Always a great test to claw the way back against the odds.

We can't afford to panic, must keep calm. Please help stop ASF from tanking.

We are not put out by this, hell we're not, bring out the troops :bigun2::badass::rippergun
 
Top