Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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tech/a said:
Rates will be cut Monday
I'll be having a look around for opportunity
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That was a 100% sure thing two days ago, then only a 90% sure thing yesterday and today maybe even lower, according to the 30 Day interbank cash rate futures.

Dont see why they have to cut rates just yet. Inflation is within their target bank but not below it.

Cheers
 
satanoperca said:
That was a 100% sure thing two days ago, then only a 90% sure thing yesterday and today maybe even lower, according to the 30 Day interbank cash rate futures.

Dont see why they have to cut rates just yet. Inflation is within their target bank but not below it.

Cheers
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Yes agree
 
Doubt I'll make 700 nzd in half an hour like yesterday but I'm a buyer if the opening looks in any way tasty on the index...

just a little worried about a 1st hour pull back, which obviously could be an opportunity!
 
I would have been happy to make a million dollar bet this morning that we would not dip into negative territory over lunch or in the arvo. Must be a buying opportunity!
 
notting said:
I would have been happy to make a million dollar bet this morning that we would not dip into negative territory over lunch or in the arvo. Must be a buying opportunity!
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You would have been ready to jump watching it dive throughout the day then;)
 
A nice bearish divergence is forming on the XAO, next few days will confirm.

Have the markets just got a little excited about the Greece bailout, someone must be hurting after taking a large haircut and the ramifications are still to be played out.

What will happen to the CDS markets, who will fund further bailouts, yes there is many more on the horizon.

What about the US and it's mountain of debt and is China really doing as well as reported.

How long will it be before Italy, Ireland and Spain also put their hands up.

Will the private markets want to provide capital in the future at such low returns given the risks involved.

I personally cannot see things returning to normal until there is a complete cleanout of the financials systems and unfortunately this may lead to a world depression but surely that has to be better in the long term than a slow and gradual death by a thousand cuts.

While is appears that we are returning to a bull market, I will wait a little longer before I am convinced that it is the case.

Cheers
 
satanoperca said:
While is appears that we are returning to a bull market, I will wait a little longer before I am convinced that it is the case.
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I'm not pretty sure not too many are expecting a return to a bull-market anytime soon.

I personally want to see support come in at around 4200-4300 for a continuation of a run up towards 4700-4800 as the current leg up looks to have run out of steam. Consolidation between 4100-4500 isn't out of the question before a move in either direction.

I personally think that governments are caught between a rock and a hard place with the current global financial position. While some here are calling for a major global depression I'm not sure that is a great idea. While I agree some pain is going to be felt over the next few years a full blown depression is something I most definitely don't want to see.

High unemployment, low food levels and social discontent caused from a major depression could very well result in massive rioting and general lawlessness in most major cities worldwide, hell we see rioting when sports teams win championships so I shudder to think what the consequences will be when millions are poor, cold and hungry and blame the government for their situation (which will probably be justified). The effect a massive depression could have on our society is not something I wish to find out, and I have no doubt it will effect all of use in some way. And imagine what would happen if our financial systems actually collapse:eek:.
 
satanoperca said:
A nice bearish divergence is forming on the XAO, next few days will confirm.

Have the markets just got a little excited about the Greece bailout, someone must be hurting after taking a large haircut and the ramifications are still to be played out.

What will happen to the CDS markets, who will fund further bailouts, yes there is many more on the horizon.

What about the US and it's mountain of debt and is China really doing as well as reported.

How long will it be before Italy, Ireland and Spain also put their hands up.

Will the private markets want to provide capital in the future at such low returns given the risks involved.

I personally cannot see things returning to normal until there is a complete cleanout of the financials systems and unfortunately this may lead to a world depression but surely that has to be better in the long term than a slow and gradual death by a thousand cuts.

While is appears that we are returning to a bull market, I will wait a little longer before I am convinced that it is the case.

Cheers
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Certainly hard to argue with everything you've said but all the fundamentals were pretty bad at the bottom in Mar 2008.... unpayable debt simply moved from banks to gov't and at some stage it will become too much.. (which for Europe turns out to be around now). And if someone chooses to remain on the sideline since then they are probably correct fundamentally. However, the more nimble traders (fundamental or technical) can still trade long and make good profits.

The EU situation is temporarily under control with a big bandage + a few pills (not sure they are real or just placebo). It will blow up again I am sure (could be next week, month or year) but I trade long with a firm view of running away as soon as things bubble up again.

Certainly not the time to buy and hold, esp companies that will only start making profits in 2014 or something like that.
 
Well on Friday I got in at the 400 mark and saw at 414ish it slipping back and took profit on 11 points - went out and came back - very glad I took the profit!

A subscription report that shall remain nameless was saying there was strong support at 400 and to buy and hold there until lunch! (with a stop loss suggested obv)

Monday could be tricky - bearish yes but we've seen a fairly decent pullback and there will be whispers re an interest rate cut. Aiming to go a little bearish and take a profit early if it's there on the index.

My prediction - early pull back and then small rally to just above Friday's close.
 
Does anybody have any thoughts on why the market fell 30 points after the Bell today Mon 31st.

Was it possibly someone putting in a mistake on a sell order then it triggered the index to go down which maybe set off some computers to start selling.

I noticed that most of the big names that make up the index got hit but some of the mid caps weren't affected.
 
skc said:
The EU situation is temporarily under control with a big bandage + a few pills (not sure they are real or just placebo). It will blow up again I am sure (could be next week, month or year) but I trade long with a firm view of running away as soon as things bubble up again.
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Looks like the bandage is already unraveling and the "potent pill$" looking more likely to be useless placebos?

Oopsies!

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will put the European Union’s new agreement on financing for Greece to a referendum, saying he had faith in receiving support from Greeks.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...eek-loan-plans-must-be-put-to-referendum.html

So now it all hinges on the ANGRY Greek voters sometime down the track. Lubly jubbly.

LOL.
 
End of month correcting, MF Global 'Oh no is it Lehmans again? Who's gonna be next,' Itallian and Spanish bonds dip woopsi, VIX up 15%.
Ausi$ flat, Gold Flat, Oil flat!!
Buy the dips.?
 
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