Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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Aussiejeff said:
Well, the Bull speculators tried really, really hard to pull on the green jersey today.... but failed at the last hurdle.

*doh*

Facepalm....
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Anyone selling into a small bounce like that would be selling at a loss from previous days. Double doh :D
 
VSntchr said:
Europe investing in the tanks again :p:;)
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Familiar pattern, down trend firmly established, how low can it go? Who is brave enough to call the bottom? Will it stop at the GFC low, then we have another huge rally? I guess all we know for now is that stocks are headed lower so factor that into our risk management.
 
Struzball said:
I'm guessing when LYC went up from it's lows you decided you'll hold on and not sell because it's a good investment?

Then when it ended up closing near it's lows for the day you thought you'd hold on and wait for the next rise to sell into?

Hopefully I'm wrong and you sold at today's peak and it continues to fall as you expected.
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Unfortunately you're almost spot on the money, still holding them for now, as my paper loss is well into 4 digits and I'm hard pressed to accept that much of a loss. I realise that if I continue to hold I'm in serious risk of losing more, which seems very likely to happen. Will sell tomorrow most likely.
 
howmanyru said:
Familiar pattern, down trend firmly established, how low can it go? Who is brave enough to call the bottom? Will it stop at the GFC low, then we have another huge rally? I guess all we know for now is that stocks are headed lower so factor that into our risk management.
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Tech/a and others have mentioned 9100 odd in the DOW. This lines up with my guidelines. Pretty happy to wait till then. Have been mostly on the sideline for a long time now and happy to draw on my inner patience. :cool:
 
No trend followers in this thread.

Follow the trend, trend is down, use the instruments available to you, short the markets until a sign of reversal appears.

Cheers
 
tech/a said:
What would you consider a " sign" ?
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Stopping volume might be one, over several time periods to confiirm trend reversal.

A break of the current downward trend channel might be another

Bouncing off a support level unfortunately that is around 3100

Decrease in volume after a downtrend with a consolidation period, might not be to reliable.

More advances across a body of stocks than declines.

Not into picking bottoms or tops, just getting the meat in the sandwhich.

and on the rare occassion I use fundamentals, some stability in the debt crisis or a change in economic thought.

When my scan provides more buy signals than sell signals over a several day period

Geez, a simple moving average cross over might surfice.

I maintain if Lehnman Brothers could bring us down to 3100 then a default in Europe or the complete meltdown of the US should brings us below that point.

I will simply stick to my plan and system.

And your thoughts on identifying a trend reversal.

Cheers
 
skyQuake said:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Dent
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There is no indication that his prediction will meet the numbers he quotes, ie. DOW @ 3100 - but he has a decent premise, enough to warrent emphasis.

"You will get a chance to get out during the end of the year" - If enough people listen, especially in the USA where it has a very large base of retail investors, it may lead to a self fulfiling prophecy. Then again it's a long shot that would happen as I always like to believe when markets crash there is good reason for it...
 
I enjoyed this line from Wikipeadia
"In fact, www.maxfunds.com, a financial reporting site awarded him(Harry Dent) the The "Ultimate Charlatan" Award. They write: "The worst investing advice usually arrives near the top and bottom of stock market cycles. Demographic trends guru Harry S. Dent is making the rounds again, and touting his latest book"
 
Warning! London is tanking badly with every footsie 100 stock down, not a blue in sight. Every sector is affected bar absolutely none. Mining stocks are 6% to 15% down in the bigger sector and up to 30% down amongst the minnows and gold miners a bit mixed but falls to 20%. Financials are down 8% to 15%.

Not blood on the streets the place is awash in a sea of red - god help us.

This looks extremely serious!
 
notting said:
I enjoyed this line from Wikipeadia
"In fact, www.maxfunds.com, a financial reporting site awarded him(Harry Dent) the The "Ultimate Charlatan" Award. They write: "The worst investing advice usually arrives near the top and bottom of stock market cycles. Demographic trends guru Harry S. Dent is making the rounds again, and touting his latest book"
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I made the mistake of clicking the link to his show in Australia some days ago - now his stupid smug smiling face is popping up in ads all over the place.
 
noirua said:
Warning! London is tanking badly with every footsie 100 stock down, not a blue in sight. Every sector is affected bar absolutely none. Mining stocks are 6% to 15% down in the bigger sector and up to 30% down amongst the minnows and gold miners a bit mixed but falls to 20%. Financials are down 8% to 15%.

Not blood on the streets the place is awash in a sea of red - god help us.

This looks extremely serious!
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Gosh. I was very close to buying RIO at the Close and recommending buying FTSE after about half an hour of it's opening and selling it at the close. Still US has not yet opened and anything could still happen.

Don't you think that the Europeans are just trying to scare Greece straight whilst having no intention of letting them default. Problem is their freaking out the whole world and causing a bigger problem!
 
notting said:
Gosh. I was very close to buying RIO at the Close and recommending buying FTSE after about half an hour of it's opening and selling it at the close. Still US has not yet opened and anything could still happen.

Don't you think that the Europeans are just trying to scare Greece straight whilst having no intention of letting them default. Problem is their freaking out the whole world and causing a bigger problem!
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Germany leads Europe and Angela Merkell is wobbling a bit, it is reported behind the scenes. If she piles German money into Greece then she'll lose at the next election.
Any business man worth their salt will be out of Greece anyway, so the feeling is any money going into Greece goes into a black hole.

Greece goes down and so do its banks and those of Germany and France and a British bank may also tumble. However, Germany can pile money into their banks and that's not as bad as piling it into Greece.

The European International bank needs AU$3 trillion and the UK has virtually said, 'piss off to that'. Can Germany bail out the whole of Europe and Merkell put her career on the line ????????????????
 
noirua said:
Germany leads Europe and Angela Merkell is wobbling a bit, it is reported behind the scenes. If she piles German money into Greece then she'll lose at the next election.
Any business man worth their salt will be out of Greece anyway, so the feeling is any money going into Greece goes into a black hole.

Greece goes down and so do its banks and those of Germany and France and a British bank may also tumble. However, Germany can pile money into their banks and that's not as bad as piling it into Greece.

The European International bank needs AU$3 trillion and the UK has virtually said, 'piss off to that'. Can Germany bail out the whole of Europe and Merkell put her career on the line ????????????????
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The problem that Merkel has got herself into is that she has already lent too much to Greece.
Borrowing to pay off debt (Greece etc) is a stupid concept and the lenders to such a concept are just as silly (Germany).

The Greeks have become so used to their carefree spend and someone will send attitude that they are unwilling to make the changes that are necessary to get them out of this.
Have a read of this and you may see why they are in so deep...
http://chasblogspot.blogspot.com/2010/05/why-greece-is-in-trouble-and-warning.html

At least Ireland recognised the problem, they took it on headfirst with the money they borrowed and they are now showing signs of possible recovery despite those around them still having their heads in the sand in the hope that it will all just go away.
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Does-Ireland-solution-Europe-yahoofinanceuk-2214278577.html
 
At this point in time, we should express our thanks for Mr Bernake for providing yet another opportunity to sell into the rises. Assuming we have a bounce today.




If the djia recovery today from 160 points down to 150 points up before close is any sort of indicator we should be good for a rise.
 

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Boggo said:
At least Ireland recognised the problem, they took it on headfirst with the money they borrowed and they are now showing signs of possible recovery despite those around them still having their heads in the sand in the hope that it will all just go away.
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Does-Ireland-solution-Europe-yahoofinanceuk-2214278577.html
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Not so sure about the "rosy" outlook for Ireland.

This brings us onto the banking sector. Unlike other European governments, Ireland took a proactive stance and nationalised its most problematic banks early into the financial crisis. In 2008 the Irish government injected €1.75 billion into the most troubled lender Anglo Irish. In January 2009 Anglo was officially nationalised, and all shares of the bank were transferred to the government.
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So, a communist/socialist move by the Irish government to "nationalise" its most troubled banks is a good thing?

This had two main consequences: firstly, the government has had to stump up €30 billion for Anglo, which nearly bankrupted the state and pushed up the 2010 deficit to a whopping 32.4% of GDP.

The second is that it forced the creation of the controversial National Asset Management Agency (Nama). This is the ultimate "bad bank" that was designed to bring more credit back to the Irish economy.

Nama hasn't helped boost credit levels, which remain extremely weak, but it has been successful at recouping some of the public money that went into bailing out the banks.
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In a way, the Irish government has been lucky they were one of the "first cabs off the rank" in facing state bankruptcy before the contagion in Greece, Italy & Spain etc really flared up. The focus was very much on Ireland and their relatively tiny economy at the time - they literally have had time on their side IMO.

Nama has many critics, who rightly question why the government decided to save banks and not let them go to the wall. However, it has been firm and steadfast in its attempts to sell the property on its books and make money for the state and it will seize any property development loan worth more than 420 million.

The fact the state is dealing with Ireland's banks and their troubled assets has contributed to the relative calm in Irish banking stocks (those that are left) relative to their eurozone peers.
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Again, I'm not sure a communist/socialist pattern of "nationalising" or "seizing" everything that fails using taxpayers money is a good idea?

The government was criticised for nationalising Irish banks, however, there is now a growing chorus for other European economies, most notable France, Italy and Spain to follow suit and use national money to boost capital levels and stave of the threat of bankruptcy in case of a sovereign default.
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Funny how quickly some so-called Western capitalist "democracies" want to turn to the darker side of socialist/communist economic rule by "seizing state assets" when the money squeeze is on... :cool:

As Ireland has found out, government cash injections are not a magic cure for the banking sector's ills. Allied Irish Bank, nationalised at the end of last year, is only worth a mere €0.04 nine months on (down from more than €20 a share five years ago), but at least the price isn't falling anymore.
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Hahaha. "At least the price isn't falling anymore"? How much lower can it go? Had to laugh at that little Irish joke. Yep, the price surely can't fall much from .04 Euro eh? LOL

IMO they most definitely are NOT out of the economic woods by any stretch of some bullish commentators imagination.

aj
 
nulla nulla said:
At this point in time, we should express our thanks for Mr Bernake for providing yet another opportunity to sell into the rises. Assuming we have a bounce today.




If the djia recovery today from 160 points down to 150 points up before close is any sort of indicator we should be good for a rise.
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Yep. "Sell into the hype" looks good. Amazing how a bit of hot air out of some guys mouth can move the world, eh?

An hour ago, the rags were screaming "Stocks Plunge!"

Now it will be "Stocks Soar!"

Hilarious.... :D
 
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