Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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tech/a said:
Positive day tomorrow.
Think this will be a lengthy return to the positive.
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I have a rule. When the ASX is down at the end and the US and UK futures are down I get out of my long positions. I keep my short positions open.

Today I bought into WPL and NCM and sold out. Now I see the US and UK markets up and our futures up 80 points. Gold up 50 or so from 1560. I stand to lose more tomorrow as my shorts get squeezed. It's nothing more than a casino. If you're running real time charts and watching them constantly or a big player who moves the market and the crowd follow you then yes you might have a chance.

When you say positive day tomorrow. The futures rallied 50-60 points before opening today and then it was sold down. The IMF meeting was over the weekend the rallies usually start in Asia and today it fizzled.

Nothing has been resolved in the IMF meeting. There is talk of a 1.2 trillion bailout fund, but that's all it is, just talk. Greece and the others will still have to pay it back someday.

It looks like to me large overseas institutions are shorting our biggest miners like WPL, RIO, BHP and NCM. Did they short cover at the end. If they didn't they may be squeezed tomorrow.

How many of you predicted the market over the last 2 days. Pump and dump. I bet none of you, but some talk like you did.

Even if we rally there is no follow through. The only people smiling are the brokers and those who shorted 2-3 months ago.
 
Nero64 said:
I have a rule. When the ASX is down at the end and the US and UK futures are down I get out of my long positions. I keep my short positions open.

Today I bought into WPL and NCM and sold out. Now I see the US and UK markets up and our futures up 80 points. Gold up 50 or so from 1560. I stand to lose more tomorrow as my shorts get squeezed. It's nothing more than a casino. If you're running real time charts and watching them constantly or a big player who moves the market and the crowd follow you then yes you might have a chance.

When you say positive day tomorrow. The futures rallied 50-60 points before opening today and then it was sold down. The IMF meeting was over the weekend the rallies usually start in Asia and today it fizzled.

Nothing has been resolved in the IMF meeting. There is talk of a 1.2 trillion bailout fund, but that's all it is, just talk. Greece and the others will still have to pay it back someday.

It looks like to me large overseas institutions are shorting our biggest miners like WPL, RIO, BHP and NCM. Did they short cover at the end. If they didn't they may be squeezed tomorrow.

How many of you predicted the market over the last 2 days. Pump and dump. I bet none of you, but some talk like you did.

Even if we rally there is no follow through. The only people smiling are the brokers and those who shorted 2-3 months ago.
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Or those that bought this arvo :)

You don't need to follow every tick and move. Sometimes its best to stay out if you have no idea whats going on
 
Nero64 said:
How many of you predicted the market over the last 2 days. Pump and dump. I bet none of you, but some talk like you did.
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You don't have to predict the markets to make money you only have to understand how they work.

I agree with Skyquake, nothing wrong with standing aside if you are not sure what's happening. Don't have to be invested all the time.

Also most of the guys I know day trading futures markets are having a very good time of it at the moment with the huge intra-day swings and ranges we are seeing. We have seen that pump and dump pattern quite a few times in the last few weeks - strength early followed by a fade and then a rally in the late arvo session, setting up the early strength for the next day.
 
There is a difference.
The IMF have said they are ready and will do whatever it takes to stop any defaults.
They know they have to --- there is no choice.default would mean financial Meltdown which would irrecoverable.

In my opinion upside will be limited to fair value --bargains won't last.
 
Nero64 said:
Nothing has been resolved in the IMF meeting. There is talk of a 1.2 trillion bailout fund, but that's all it is, just talk. Greece and the others will still have to pay it back someday.
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Actually I don't think they will have to pay it back? Technically they have already defaulted, it's just a matter of who's going to take a haircut & how much pain they are willing to bare & when. The haircut contagion is the problem!

As long as the Dow is a world market proxy, we see how it stands? Still looking for a lower high again around 11400 into the week end then go short for support back to 10600? A descending triangle pattern, resolving in a breakdown through 10600. Unless & of course the central bankers can collectively stick their fingers in the debt dyke for another few weeks....?:2twocents

dow 2609.jpg
 
I still stand by what I said on the 12th September.

I suppose today will be the large bounce, I don't think it will go far, especially considering the recent falls in commodities and perception of China's influence seems to be dwindling.

Struzball said:
My guess is no bounce tomorrow.
Continual steady fall over the next week(s), large bounce after that, but not bouncing higher than august 8 lows (4050).

I don't have much to back that up, anything could happen.
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Chasero said:
Rally Tuesday anyone?

The politicians are scrambling to calm the markets! Bulls are going to buy next week I'm sure!
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^

Still think this is going to happen.

Tuesday Wednesday Green day, then red again towards weekend.

I'm surprised if this rally will have strength towards Friday... as all the charts I've seen are trending down. Trending down a lot.
 
tech/a said:
There is a difference.
The IMF have said they are ready and will do whatever it takes to stop any defaults.
They know they have to --- there is no choice.default would mean financial Meltdown which would irrecoverable.

In my opinion upside will be limited to fair value --bargains won't last.
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An analogy in my mind is... a large ship has hit an iceberg and a few smaller compartments are taking in water. Instead of sealing those compartments the captain is saying open up the larger compartments so the water can be spread around...

I am bearish fundamentally and really haven't seen anything that makes any sense yet in terms of a resolution of the situation. Chances are we will continue to react to various rumours and statements, and hopefully the central bankers will continue to put in 'safety measures' in preparation of default... and pull the plug eventually so the market can actually function.

Technically there's going to be a fair bit of resistance at XJO 4000 which is only another percent higher than what the futures's saying now.
 
Dont disagree with much written here.
+100 on SPI futs open.

Will see how market reacts by how long it stays there!
 
tech/a said:
Dont disagree with much written here.
+100 on SPI futs open.

Will see how market reacts by how long it stays there!
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Same pattern so far, strength from overnight sessions followed by a fade.

Would be expecting a small rally when HSI opens and then it will probably depend on what Asia does.
 
FreshTrader said:
$1.20, when do you expect this to happen? LYC has already rebounded by 22% today. Expecting more aggresive growth?
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That's what i think MIGHT happen over the next few days. Basing it on the assumption that this is a dead cat bounce, and general trend is downwards. (depends on news of course over the next few days)

Take it with a grain of salt.
 
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