Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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What do ya reckon 2000 for the Asx 200?
Name your low.
I know we don't really have a clue,but its fun.
 
wayneL said:
So you're relatively optimistic?

I'll say 700.... just to enrage the bulls. :D:D
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I'm normally more comfortable with bearish strategies in the sharemarket, but if it does go below 1000 (which seems quite conceivable) then I might be willing to consider donning horns and hooves since shorting opportunities tend to diminish as markets approach zero.
 
notting said:
What do ya reckon 2000 for the Asx 200?
Name your low.
I know we don't really have a clue,but its fun.
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I think 3,800. Maybe start a poll on another thread?

ie: At what point will the ASX200 bottom out during GFC II

It has already - above 4100
3800 -> 4099
3600 ->3799
3400 -> 3599
3200 -> 3399
3000 -> 1499
below 3000
 
Smurf1976 said:
All this stuff is a bit like seeing someone fairly young and with little driving experience driving a performance car, accelerating as fast as they can the moment the light turns green and weaving in and out of traffic for no real reason. Anyone with a reasonable amount of driving experience knows the likely outcome of that one, the only questions being when, where and with what consequences. That there will be a crash is virtually guaranteed. It's the same with out of control economics - it ends in disaster at some point... :2twocents
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Good and very apt analogy.

Intrinsic Value said:
Alternatively wait until you see the first signs of upward movement.
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I wouldn't be touching anything until this happens, and not just the first signs.

tech/a said:
DON'T underestimate the significance of the current World economics.
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This is, I think, what many who are getting ecstatic about 'great value' are failing to take into account.
In GFC I, governments could bail out financial institutions etc., but now it's governments that are at the end of the road. Hard to see a quick solution to this.
 
Hmm, i have to say. I was planning on riding it out and had decided not to sell off all my shares at my current losses.

But this thread is making me think otherwise.

I still have some in the green, so probably could be worse. But then again, the red far outweigh the green.

Hard to know what the right decision is..

Monday will be an interesting day indeed.
 
alexc2005 said:
Hard to know what the right decision is..

Monday will be an interesting day indeed.
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Do some index finger exercises tonight and Sunday, stretch it forwards and backwards

Sounds like you will be pressing the F5 key a few times on Monday. I did that on Friday, when I should have been surfing.

Good luck buddy.
 
alexc2005 said:
Hmm, i have to say. I was planning on riding it out and had decided not to sell off all my shares at my current losses.

But this thread is making me think otherwise.

I still have some in the green, so probably could be worse. But then again, the red far outweigh the green.

Hard to know what the right decision is..

Monday will be an interesting day indeed.
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I am tempted to sell too, as I bought in MQG at $27.50 but now it looks like it's going to go below $20. However, I like to think that if I ended up in a coma tomorrow for 15 years, I'd wake up and this whole thing will be over :D
 
Tyler Durden said:
I am tempted to sell too, as I bought in MQG at $27.50 but now it looks like it's going to go below $20. However, I like to think that if I ended up in a coma tomorrow for 15 years, I'd wake up and this whole thing will be over :D
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Yeah.... the XJO should just about climbed back up to about 5000 by then. ;)
 
Hmm, i have to say. I was planning on riding it out and had decided not to sell off all my shares at my current losses.
But this thread is making me think otherwise.
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Just remember that if the market panic really goes off then some insane moments happen where some stocks will mementarily hit levels that will make you so sure it's a buy that you will feel like running into the streets after you have baught them and screaming for everyone to buy it now.
This happened to me last time when NAB bottomed during GFC 1.
I was down badly, I saw NAB do what it did. I bucketed more than half my portfolio into it and leveraged it. I was break even again within a couple of weeks in a market that was still badly down.
I seriously wanted to run into the street and scream BUY NAB now!! I stopped myself from ringing people because I didn't want to have them scold me for leveraging in such a shocking market. NAB went down another % or so the next day then came up to nearly where I baught it, then went higher and higher.
I sold out of NAB and diversified into the slower movers that went up from there even though I kept making the classic mistake of selling too early on pretty much everything as it rose because of the psychological canning I had taken for months leading up to it.
OSH was a similar opportunity. Every broker in the country on one day was saying it was a clear buy when it tanked it was almost coming out of their mouths involuntarily.
I did not know enough about it at that time but realised it was another bleedingly obvious one in retrospect having learnt more about it, had I known that stock like I new the Ausi banks at that time I would have gone for it too.
In full market meltdown panic, these things happen they are really obvious bargains that are pricing in total economic failure which just can't happen.
The machine can get "gummed up" as Buffy once said, but it can't totally fail. It didn't fail during two world wars!!! It aint going to fail now!!!
We will always have banks, food and electricity etc.
 
Well I am well cashed up and I was really waiting for the reporting season so it will be interesting to see what comes up in the next month or so.

I do agree things are likely to get worse before they get better.

But if i see great value and for me that means great companies trading at over 100 discount to IV then I will deploy some capital but keep some in reserve if there is further weakening.
 
notting said:
Just remember that if the market panic really goes off then some insane moments happen where some stocks will mementarily hit levels that will make you so sure it's a buy that you will feel like running into the streets after you have baught them and screaming for everyone to buy it now.
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Can you nominate a price level now for when you will buy NAB this time around?

Yes we will still need banks, foods and electricity, but quite a few of these companies like MQG, BOQ, GFF etc are close to or below their GFC lows. And we will also need bricks (BLD?), clothes (PBG?), fuel (CTX?) etc. But necessity simply guarantees that the industry will continue to exist, it doesn't mean the investor will make money from it.
 
Intrinsic Value said:
Well I am well cashed up and I was really waiting for the reporting season so it will be interesting to see what comes up in the next month or so.

I do agree things are likely to get worse before they get better.

But if i see great value and for me that means great companies trading at over 100 discount to IV then I will deploy some capital but keep some in reserve if there is further weakening.
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How does a share trading at over 100 discount to IV?
 
So what are peoples predictions for monday?

On a positive note the unemployment rate has dropped and the job creations has exceeded predictions.

On a negative note, the credit has been derated to AA+..

Friday was also a decent day for the US.

Maybe a rally on monday?
 
Alex, no predictions from me, but we can always expect bear market rallies. These can often be quite dramatic and people new to the stock market will buy because they don't want to miss out on getting the best price they can.

These bounces are often appropriately called "dead cat bounces"...:D

However, eventually the market does turn up again. Knowing the difference between a dead cat bounce and a low that will go no further takes a bit of experience with a bit of guess work thrown in.
 
Can you nominate a price level now for when you will buy NAB this time around?
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SKC. I would not nominate a level for NAB at this stage for a number of reasons. First it's highly unlikely to be the one that becomes an absolute certainty twice round. There were plenty of other conditions around that helped it become obvious. Like the fact it had underperformed the other banks for years and was relativly cheap to start with due to some really dumb things they had done.

Also I had identified the bottom of GFC 1 market crash, not the actualy price on the market but the event. The event was that everything was just crazy no one new what institution was going to be the next Lemon Bro. After some time the US government stepped in and baught half of Citi group. I immediatly thought That's it! That's certainty as certain can be in markets. Which is enough for markets! Of course Citi tanked and all the commentators complained but it was certain that Citi was not going to be the next lemon. So there was a foundation where as before there was not!

The market bottomed in numbers about 2 weeks later. This is all from memory so may not be 100% accurate. NAB behaved ultra panicy just after that, I think and that was when it was just so clear to me. All the commentry never mentioned the Citi was a certainty even though all the share holders had been liquidated.
It's not a number it's insane movement relative to certain conditions.
A couple of weeks later, the weekend addition of the Fin Review had this retarded article about super annuation on the front page. The preceding week the mareket had moved up a little, I was seriously expecting there to be a massive picture of a Bull on the front page!! Saying 'The Bull is Back.' I was shocked that it wasn't. There was just this lame article on Super.
I know a lot more candidates that are not going to go bankrupt due to the current shenanigans, I have no idea what the price will be, when it will be, or what conditions will present at that time. But I am almost certain that there will be opportunities like that if the panic get's up enough. What we need to see is total lack of confidence in anything financial like before.
Companies have much better balance sheets now so they will be able to remain solvent etc for much longer.
Countries are in the same position that they were in during the GFC insolvent, with the ability to print money!! It's just that they are the center of attention now not Lehmons.
I still have a trading plan that I am sticking to that anticipated the possibility of this second collapse, but part of that plan is that when you see something that is so stupidly obvious and panic driven then you can jump all over it.
Get back to your plan after that!
I just hope the moment comes in such an obvious way again.
 
alexc2005 said:
So what are peoples predictions for monday?

On a positive note the unemployment rate has dropped and the job creations has exceeded predictions.

On a negative note, the credit has been derated to AA+..

Friday was also a decent day for the US.

Maybe a rally on monday?
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I am thinking the market has sold on the rumour (downgrading) and after experiencing the 4% drop there is a bounce in order at some stage. Nothing goes down in a straight line as nothing goes up in a straight line. Optimists please start your engines.
 
So down grade announced all good in the USA
Problems solved.

NOTHING is being done to solve USA or EUROPEAN debt.
 
Of course I have absolutly no idea.
People could have had a look at some stocks over the weekend and thought Gee there are some bargains around compaired to last week, so they buy in to some falls falling in the morning which may look relativly tame.
Then the US futures come into play which are usually total screw balls on our Monday for some reason and do Totally unreliable things.
China will show a bit of strength because they are %100 convinced that they are at war with everyone and everyone is at war with them because that is just the way the world is so they will see the US downgrade as a big picture battle victory for them in the big war and react positivly. The Chinese think that to think anyother way is totally stupid and dangerous making you an unacceptable risk to the Chinese Communist Party.
Japan will probably tank more taking us with it.
That's my bed time speculation.
 
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