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- 14 April 2011
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Why do you say that?
Triangles seem to be yor forte, why not go to back to your XAO T/A forum and draw us yet another revision?
It's pretty clear few here trade with any real capital if at all.
It's pretty clear few here trade with any real capital if at all.
Seems an unusualy sweeping statement for you t/a,
When you say "trade" are you talking a specific instrument (spi, currency, options, asx) or just in general?
When you say "here" do you mean the posters in this thread or on the ASF forum generally?
What do you consider 'real capital" to be?
Just asking because I sometime wonder if the definitions of "trading" aren't sometimes applied in too limited a perspective in this forum from time to time.
In this thread.
200K +
Suggesting running ---trading it--a stock portfolio.
Just a general comment the if the US addresses their dept problem they will certainly slide into recession, US market fall 40% on average on recessions.
Still we will see how far we go markets can and do over shoot.
On a scale that includes the GFC, there's no tangable panic on the Ted Spread,
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND
I'm actually very surprised that no one knows the reason for the big sell-off. Even today's article in smh couldn't explain why, and papers usually come up with all sorts of reasons explaining market movement.
It's also funny, because they say "the market" knows this, "the market" knows that...but we are the market, so then why don't any of us know the reasons for movement?
A sovereign debt crisis wouldn't feed down to the banks ?The TED spread is intrabank. The last crisis was intrabank where people are worried about toxic assets on bank balance sheets and not knowing who will blow up next.
Agree. Real women do the same.Sometimes real men cut and run
The trick is to do it early enough.
Tyler, have a read of Stephen Bartholomeusz's piece which explains the situation clearly.I'm actually very surprised that no one knows the reason for the big sell-off. Even today's article in smh couldn't explain why, and papers usually come up with all sorts of reasons explaining market movement.
It's also funny, because they say "the market" knows this, "the market" knows that...but we are the market, so then why don't any of us know the reasons for movement?
Facing up to a perfect economic horror
Stephen Bartholomeusz
Published 11:49 AM, 5 Aug 2011 Last update 11:19 AM, 5 Aug 2011
What happened overnight was a financial massacre more than two years in the making as investors finally realised that policymakers in the US and Europe have failed to address the weaknesses in their economies which were exposed and exacerbated by the financial crisis.
In the US, the destructive politicking over the debt ceiling which produced a compromised compromise exposed how intractable the government debt and deficit issues are in the US, even as data emerged to show its economy was sliding back into recession.
In Europe, the ham-fisted attempts to plaster Band Aids over the Greek crisis have failed in their central objective of containing the European sovereign debt problem, with red flags now popping up all over southern Europe.
If they couldn’t deal with the relatively small Greek economy, there’s no confidence that the European policymakers could cope with a collapse in confidence in the far larger economies of Spain and Italy. And there is now a realisation among investors that there could be very significant losses on what are supposedly risk-free bonds.
It is within Europe that the potential for another global financial crisis lies. The interconnectedness of the European banking systems and the banks’ exposures to the sovereign debts of southern Europe mean that a loss of confidence could trigger a new round of liquidity and solvency crises and infect the global system.
The European Banking Authority’s stress tests last month (which didn’t include any potential for sovereign debt defaults or losses) might have shown only eight banks failed the test but another sixteen only barely scraped through and there is still significant government support for the system’s capital base.
More disturbing, the funding structure for the European banks is dangerously short term, with more than €5 trillion of funding maturing within two years. At least in the US most of the significant banks have been recapitalised and most of the taxpayer capital that was pumped into them during the crisis has been repaid.
The belated realisation that policymakers haven’t been able to gain control of the structural deficiencies in their economies was reflected in the sheer level of fear and panic that was evident in markets overnight and which spilled into our markets today, with the sharemarket plunging and the Australia dollar cracking again.
It is perverse, and an indicator of the level of fear, that the funds being yanked from almost every asset class are pouring into US treasuries, where in real terms yields are negative. In effect, investors are paying the US government to provide what they obviously regard, despite the state of the US economy and its public finances, as the only real safe haven. Even the gold price fell yesterday.
The 2008 financial crisis exposed the extent to which European and US public finances have been mismanaged over the past decade or so and, because of the massive bailouts and stimulus programs, further weakened their economic foundations.
The best case outcome was always probably a decade of painful rehabilitation and low growth, even if the markets didn’t properly appreciate the implications of the crisis’ legacy.
The worst case outcome was another crisis in a weakened global economy. Unless the policymakers act quickly and decisively to generate some confidence in their ability to manage their economies and get their public finances under some semblance of control, we may be on the cusp of that second crisis.
The Australian economy, where the non-resource sector already appeared to be on the brink of recession, won’t necessarily be immune to the shockwaves flowing from offshore, even if China’s economy holds up in the face of another global recession and provides continuing support for the resources sector.
The meltdown in financial markets will simply reinforce the conviction among consumers and business, reflected in the collapse in their confidence in the economy and the near-unprecedented risk-aversion demonstrated by their deleveraging, that more than two years after the markets signalled their belief that the worst was behind them the world remains too unsafe to contemplate taking any kind of risk.
What you don't know is whether we are cheap now, or if we were expensive back then.
The US "austerity measures" will mean nothing. They are cutting $45B this year in an economy that is worth $3,800B, or 0.12%... the impact is negligible. What it does mean, however, is that people can no longer count on further US debt funded stimulus.
The TED spread is intrabank. The last crisis was intrabank where people are worried about toxic assets on bank balance sheets and not knowing who will blow up next.
To measure the scale of the crisis now you need to look at the spread between German vs Italy/Spainish debt imo.
In this thread.
200K +
Suggesting running ---trading it--a stock portfolio.
Tyler, have a read of Stephen Bartholomeusz's piece which explains the situation clearly
Tyler, if you have a think about it, you will probably be able to come up with some suggestions. This is more useful to you than people 'telling you stuff'.Ok, that's a very good read. But now I ask, why now? Why didn't all this happen before the US debt ceiling was raised?
A sovereign debt crisis wouldn't feed down to the banks ?
A question, not a criticism of the above viewpoint.
Yes but I guess we are only at the start. And this time the starting point is at the sovereign level.
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