Looks to me like the "smart people" buying "bargains" driving up the market, then once it hits resistance the short sellers sell to the "smart people", driving the market down.
The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread
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Looks to me like the "smart people" buying "bargains" driving up the market, then once it hits resistance the short sellers sell to the "smart people", driving the market down.
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I dont visit (or atleast contribute) here as often as I should. But I have to ask, and hope one of you experinenced guys can tell me. Perhaps my figures are wrong?
This is the thing that REALLY worries me.
Right now, with all the bad news going around, the DOW is still up some 71% from the GFC lows. I think it reached something like 93% a couple of months back. The ASX on the other hand is currently up about 30%. I think we got to maybe 55% back in April? We tracked the DOW for a while, and then we trended slowly down.
What happens if the market does Tank, and the DOW goes back to say GFC lows circa 6500....where to we head? 1800?
I asked myself the same questions regarding what happens on the way down.
Now, on the way up...we did not track DOW in %, but if you take into consideration the
AUDUSD, then you get a different set of numbers. This may apply on the way down too...just my thinking...
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Hmm seen that before somewhere!
They aren't short sellers they are just plain sellers.(Selling long positions).
Lots of unwinding.
Bit like putting boards up around your house windows before a hurricane.
But as we know the only full protection is not to be there.
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yeah I considered the currency, but most of the 3 main euro indexes also reached peaks about 90% reclaimed.
We are constantly told by those morons in govt that we have a booming economy, and unemployment is low (compared to the USA, we are miles ahead?)
It was interesting watching Bloomberg last week (or maybe week before)....on that day that the DOW went positive to negative, and back and changed over many times before ending up big. The SPI futures did the same thing as I sat there and watched the TV.......and we were closed!
Today and yesterday is the same story has been repeated over and over again. The DOW had a good night, then the futures are down for our market, and we take our lead from that.
It is completely moronic.
We are constantly told by those morons in govt that we have a booming economy, and unemployment is low (compared to the USA, we are miles ahead?)
It was interesting watching Bloomberg last week (or maybe week before)....on that day that the DOW went positive to negative, and back and changed over many times before ending up big. The SPI futures did the same thing as I sat there and watched the TV.......and we were closed!
Today and yesterday is the same story has been repeated over and over again. The DOW had a good night, then the futures are down for our market, and we take our lead from that.
It is completely moronic.
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I'm glad the Aus market is being cautious.
I am concerned that the US has got ahead of itself. I do not anticipate full blown QE3, merely tinkering at the edges.
I am concerned that the US has got ahead of itself. I do not anticipate full blown QE3, merely tinkering at the edges.
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I wonder if you and the rest of the market and country will be happy if the ASX shows the same "caution" on the way down if it follows the current behaviour. So so many people would get burned to extinction. Just stop and think about the ASX being at 2500, and what this would do to our country.
Whilst there, ask the same question what would happen if tommorrow the dollar went back to 80c. The whole country would be SCREWED.
As long as the sun keeps coming up every morning I know I'll still be happy.
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Another question.......one would assume that if the market did tank, that every stock would suffer pretty well much the same punishment. I worked it out the DOW would need to drop 42% to get back to GFC lows....so would we do the same? God help us if we do.
So the big miners would go south to where? Lets say RIO at $23 and BHP at $22....whilst bad....thats ok, thats about where they were at the GFC lows
What happens to the banks? Will NAB be trading at $9?
How about all the midcaps that are right now trading at or below the GFC lows there would be scores of them? HIL,SWM,CAB....what are they all going to be trading at? 42% lower than where they are today? As I said above, god help us all if this happens.
So the big miners would go south to where? Lets say RIO at $23 and BHP at $22....whilst bad....thats ok, thats about where they were at the GFC lows
What happens to the banks? Will NAB be trading at $9?
How about all the midcaps that are right now trading at or below the GFC lows there would be scores of them? HIL,SWM,CAB....what are they all going to be trading at? 42% lower than where they are today? As I said above, god help us all if this happens.
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As tech/a said. Its sell strength atm. (and buy dips)
Though we should see a bit of a rally this arvo imo
Also in response to ur other question, mid caps would get smashed hard. GFC saw heaps of stocks lose 90%+ only to turn around and come back in late 2010.
Big caps will weather it better only because theres srs money involved.
nulla nulla
Positive Expectancy
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I think I saw T/A say something to this effect very recently.
When the prices driven up by the "smart Buyers" buying bargains hit "resistance" and the "shorters" step in, are you referring to CFD shorters, hedge funds selling down borrowed stock or the "Smart people" that didn't get out before now selling into the bounce to protect their capital in this period of volitility?
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USA - "Shipping volume at trucking companies, a barometer of the broader economy, was up 11 percent last month from a year earlier, according to Cass Information Systems. Echo Global Logistics Inc., a Chicago-based provider of freight services, said last month it’s “very optimistic about continued growth in the second half.”
Perhaps that's why there will be no QE3.
It's about Fricking Europe any way!!!!!!!
Perhaps that's why there will be no QE3.
It's about Fricking Europe any way!!!!!!!
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Fud is fud. We can look at our economy by how many containers we truck around the country!
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Indeed we can. It's possibly the most down to earth and dependable indicator there is!
All of the above I suppose, basically I was saying what is happening today looks like what T/A has been talking about. :microwave
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Gives the cleaners more work, is a good thang.
skc
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Shades of 2008 again?!
Sept 2008 - Buffett boosts Goldman Sachs with $5-billion investment
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2008/09/warren-buffett.html
Tonight - Warren Buffett to invest $5 billion in Bank of America
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/25/us-bankofamerica-idUSTRE77N4J420110825
He managed to boost the SPX for about an hour, but the night is still young I suppose.
For the record, Buffett bought into GS when it was $122. GS bottomed 2 months later at $48.
Sept 2008 - Buffett boosts Goldman Sachs with $5-billion investment
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2008/09/warren-buffett.html
Tonight - Warren Buffett to invest $5 billion in Bank of America
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/25/us-bankofamerica-idUSTRE77N4J420110825
He managed to boost the SPX for about an hour, but the night is still young I suppose.
For the record, Buffett bought into GS when it was $122. GS bottomed 2 months later at $48.
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Skc I have to agree with you there.
Buffett is a hero to investors so everyone watches what he does with misty eyes; thanks for posting that.
Buffett has a very strong interest in America's economic future and any help to sentiment is positive in that respect. If He makes a large commitment to a company that some have whispered is in trouble then naturally it helps to quell the rumours and encourage other investors. It would be nice to see the large banks pull through this crisis intact.
Buffett is a hero to investors so everyone watches what he does with misty eyes; thanks for posting that.
Buffett has a very strong interest in America's economic future and any help to sentiment is positive in that respect. If He makes a large commitment to a company that some have whispered is in trouble then naturally it helps to quell the rumours and encourage other investors. It would be nice to see the large banks pull through this crisis intact.