The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread
- Thread starter RexBudman
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tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Too many gaps all over the place for this old duck?:
Any prefs between DAX and FTSE? Never properly looked at the DAX before, just ES and FTSE
FTSE a lot easier and more conforming to VSA.
Mind you both DAX and FTSE leave the SPI (God knows why I trade 10 pt ranges) for dead.
At least you get great trends in a session and terrific volume which reads like a book
which you can pre empt the ending---pretty accurately!.
I prefer 1 min charts and for longer holds 5 min.
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Cheers. I suppose we trade the SPI because its convenient... either that or gluttons for punishment
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All Ords would need to fall another 100pts or so to be in lock-step with Euro, US market moves. We laugh in their general direction...
No wuckers, dudes! Pass the beer & skittles...
No wuckers, dudes! Pass the beer & skittles...
skc
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All Ords would need to fall another 100pts or so to be in lock-step with Euro, US market moves. We laugh in their general direction...
No wuckers, dudes! Pass the beer & skittles...
For some reason I don't feel the panic. It feels like an orderly sell off. Everything takes a similar cut... not too many massive holes like 2 weeks ago except for the few companies (BBG, GFF, QBE) that reported today.
That is my sentiment exactly. No matter how you read a company charts or trend I find that unexpected influences can throw theories way off - so I stick to my original plan without emotion. Today I am down 5%, and it isn't phasing me one bit. I have no concerns that my price entry point was wrong, as todays losses are insignificant to the intermediate term. I respect the opinions posted in regards to the charts - however my sentiment remains the same. I have these forums to thank as they have educated me a great deal.
However, on the 5th, I felt like the sky was falling. It was my first crash - and in turn I lost a lot of funds.
Sometimes it pays off to be patient and optimistic - however optimism can quickly turn into wishful thinking. Thank goodness for stop/loss
I don't understand why it being more sustained is a bad sign - would you explain it to me, Tech/a-senpai?
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All Ords would need to fall another 100pts or so to be in lock-step with Euro, US market moves. We laugh in their general direction...
No wuckers, dudes! Pass the beer & skittles...
My expectation was that after the post-open bounce, XJO would touch or cross the 4100 level later. It has been holding up quite well. Having said that, there is still enough time for a readjustment with the SP500 futures in mind...so...some sell-off late in the afternoon still on the cards.
cheers,
skc
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Keeping emotions out, sticking to your plan etc are important elements of successful investing / trading. Then there is the slightly more important part called a profitable plan.
You will need both, and if anything, work on the profitable plan first. It's easy to be non-emotional and disciplined when you know something will work over time.
Not 100% sure what I meant. But the market doesn't feel as "broken" as it was on 5th Aug. Yes there are large falls among large stocks, but there wasn't too much -10% on the open with 3% spread and 0 buyer for 30 minutes type situations.
Not sure whether that's a good or bad sign either...
Sometimes it pays off to be patient and optimistic - however optimism can quickly turn into wishful thinking. Thank goodness for stop/loss
I don't understand why it being more sustained is a bad sign - would you explain it to me, Tech/a-senpai?
NewTrade, you barely need to be an expert on stock markets/trading/elliot wave etc to explain why too much optimism and a sustained downturn is a bad thing.
I wonder what all those optimists from May 2007 are doing today (When MQG was almost worth $100/share)
I completely understand. Too much optimism would be wishful - but I also am against heavy pesimism. MQG is not $100, its $24 respectively at the moment. And in regards to the crash of the 5th, and todays huge downturn, the price entered may be viable after all.
I will be holding this for a couple of months or more, or until the stop/loss triggers. I am confident in a slight uptrend to come, depending on the foreign markets.
My optimism in 2007 would have quickly ended during the pre/post GFC. Optimism is one thing but blind wishes are another.
Well the day has ended, I hope the bargain hunting was optimal for all - shall see you on the next session.
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Hi NewTrade..welcome to the boards
As with a lot of my posts, I'm not asking because I want to know, I'm asking to see if you know and have thought about such things...
Why is MQG $24 instead of nearly $100?
What makes $24 an attractive purchase price?
What is your target price determined by your analysis?
With any company, regardless of what sector, what prospects, what cash on hand, what-ever...they never stand still...what represents "value" is always moving in accordance with what is happening that is outside of their control. Hence your statement above...depending upon foreign markets... therefore your decision becomes very binary.
The only variables you can control is what you are prepared to lose, for a potential gain.
Good luck with the trading plan.
P.S. Just popped in to say aside from the open and last ten minutes of the close that market was boring as hell.
Cheers
Sir Osisofliver
skc
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+1.
May be that's what I meant by an orderly sell off. Unlike the 4th and 5th Aug it was a thrill a minute.
Finishing on the low for the day, Europe futures already rolling over, gold up 30.
Shaping up to be a black Friday over night.
Hi NewTrade..welcome to the boards
As with a lot of my posts, I'm not asking because I want to know, I'm asking to see if you know and have thought about such things...
Why is MQG $24 instead of nearly $100?
What makes $24 an attractive purchase price?
What is your target price determined by your analysis?
With any company, regardless of what sector, what prospects, what cash on hand, what-ever...they never stand still...what represents "value" is always moving in accordance with what is happening that is outside of their control. Hence your statement above...depending upon foreign markets... therefore your decision becomes very binary.
The only variables you can control is what you are prepared to lose, for a potential gain.
Good luck with the trading plan.
P.S. Just popped in to say aside from the open and last ten minutes of the close that market was boring as hell.
Cheers
Sir Osisofliver
Sir Osis,
Thank you for the post, it was rather enlightening.
I do have answers to those questions and have pumped them through my mind quite a number of times. Although I may be a little off about their drop, I am sure I know the main contributors to their demise.
Again, I am optimistic for my target, not back to its trading peak 4 years ago - and my target is reasonable in my view. I trade intermediate terms and I don't think the XAO is on an infinite regress, nor will I ever consider it in infinite progress.
Next week will be a better week
I'm curious, at which point would your optimism have ended during the GFC? 10% from the peak? 20% from the peak? 50% from the peak? Hindsight is 20/20.
For me it was March '08, at a significant loss. I assume your optimism will end once your stop loss is reached?
This time my "optimism" ended August 8 2011. Not that I've been overly optimistic about anything for the last two years, but that's when I went to 100% cash.
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Making some money on a down day isn't that boring. My free NAV options came in today and I got some TVN at 0.045, which I think was a good thing.
Still have a fair bit stashed away for Monday and Tuesday, where I'm expecting another hit - let's wait and see.
I hope you are wrong, but my gut believes you are right.