Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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eskys said:
Read somewhere yesterday, one or two liner which said, historically market goes up no matter which party wins the election. True or false, I've no idea
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that assumes a MAJOR party is elected ( as the dominant force )

what if an assortment of independents and 'fringe' groups are actually the majority ( as opposed to inconvenient coalition partners )
 
eskys said:
I'm late to work, so will leave this here, not sure how accurate the indicative price is before open, good luck everyone.................https://www.marketwatch.com/tools/options-expiration-calendar
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May
SUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISUN
1234567
891011121314
15161718192021
22232425262728
293031

that little hiccup , but cheers the site is very helpful
 
eskys said:
Not sure why it didn't open up properly divs........I'll see if I can find another site later tonight (for next month's expiry).

As for the election tomorrow, didn't think the minority groups will be elected as dominant. Simply didn't cross my mind
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the site worked fine for me , the expiry dates just didn't transfer to ASF

it isn't supposed to cross your mind the big media PLAN it that way , in fact Kerry Packer felt he had the power to change government and/or leaders ( and another media mogul thinks exactly the same way , but pretends to support the side with the most available viewers )

i remember one council election when the pro ALP candidate joined with the pro-LNP candidate when an independent looked very strong the public suddenly realized ALP-LNP were two faces of the same coin and INCREASED the vote for the independent , who proceeded to stay chairman until the State Premier changed shire boundaries ( eliminating that council completely ) , about 10 years of overwhelming majority of the vote
 
Dona Ferentes said:
No matter who wins in their electorate, you always end up with a politician.
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but ( very rarely ) you get a person that understands their REAL job ( Bob Katter Jr , and Graeme Campbell come to mind )

Graeme Campbell (politician) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

LOL

somehow Graeme was 'far-right' despite having overwhelming Aboriginal support while representing the ALP AND afterwards

when evicted by the ALP his voted INCREASED
 
eskys said:
Read somewhere yesterday, one or two liner which said, historically market goes up no matter which party wins the election. True or false, I've no idea
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Yea.... Market hates uncertainty.

I haven't gone in yet as there is no obvious value out there plus if it is a hung parliament then there is confirmed uncertainty.
With so many postal and pre voting might take a while.
 
UMike said:
Yea.... Market hates uncertainty.

I haven't gone in yet as there is no obvious value out there plus if it is a hung parliament then there is confirmed uncertainty.
With so many postal and pre voting might take a while.
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there are tiny pockets of value BUT they often lack liquidity ( or at least reliable liquidity )

and a FEW businesses are almost immune from political intervention ( or too low-profile to be targeted )

obviously with such companies , i am making small careful dabbles
 
S&P500 futures were deep in Green last night before opening. Then S&P500 plummeted well over 2%. At 3am all the News outlets flashed "Bear Market confirmation". 3.30am the S&P500 came back like Lazarus to finish up even.

Made me think, if the U.S. does go into Recession it'll be around Xmas/New Year
 
Mohammed Hazabig'un said:
S&P500 futures were deep in Green last night before opening. Then S&P500 plummeted well over 2%. At 3am all the News outlets flashed "Bear Market confirmation". 3.30am the S&P500 came back like Lazarus to finish up even.

Made me think, if the U.S. does go into Recession it'll be around Xmas/New Year
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Yes a market acting like a religion indeed, built on beliefs and not on facts, with preachers, evils and even hell and paradise..a great analogy
 

Interesting to note that our ASX market tends to do quite well post elections with only the odd exception here or there during these past few decades. Let's see how the week ahead pans out.

Just quietly, this federal election has cost us tax payer's about $500M - pity as am sure this money could have been put to better use improving our Healthcare for example or towards helping out all those recent helpless flood victims in QLD & NSW
 
Whilst the "everything bubble" has slowly been deflating downisde projection was now been reached on the 78W cycle. We should start to see the begining of a multi week/month rally soon. Interestingly the VIX has been basically sideways during the decline suggesting fear has not been there.
tvc_4ff83bb6148605b3a7ef37d5443923fc.pngtvc_2ef5e6eb52c6b57fb9613e5d871e2a94.png
 
gartley said:
Whilst the "everything bubble" has slowly been deflating downisde projection was now been reached on the 78W cycle. We should start to see the begining of a multi week/month rally soon. Interestingly the VIX has been basically sideways during the decline suggesting fear has not been there.
View attachment 141975View attachment 141976
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Other evidence to this is that several speccy stocks have found a bottom and have begun an upwards trend
 
Mohammed Hazabig'un said:
S&P500 futures were deep in Green last night before opening. Then S&P500 plummeted well over 2%. At 3am all the News outlets flashed "Bear Market confirmation". 3.30am the S&P500 came back like Lazarus to finish up even.

Made me think, if the U.S. does go into Recession it'll be around Xmas/New Year
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S&P took a plunge around midnight, spooked by recession fears. Calls not exercised, Mohammed?
 
gartley said:
Whilst the "everything bubble" has slowly been deflating downisde projection was now been reached on the 78W cycle. We should start to see the begining of a multi week/month rally soon. Interestingly the VIX has been basically sideways during the decline suggesting fear has not been there.
View attachment 141975View attachment 141976
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I agree that we may indeed see some relief/rally in SPY:

Screen Shot 2022-05-21 at 3.29.53 PM.png

However the VIX has not been moving sideways. It is reproducing the 2007/2008 pattern:

Screen Shot 2022-05-21 at 3.28.12 PM.png

A rally in SPY with a dip in VIX would be entirely consistent technically.

Until the macro fundamentals are resolved, it is an ever worsening bear market.

Screen Shot 2022-05-21 at 3.49.58 PM.pngScreen Shot 2022-05-21 at 3.50.44 PM.png


The interest on $30.5T at 0.005% = $0.1525T


GDP = $24T. Tax revenue = $3.84T


At 10% FFR, the interest (that required to tame inflation at 8.5%) = $3.05T. So essentially the interest required to pay the debt, consumes 79% of tax revenues.


What about everything else?


The Fed would need to monetise everything else. What happens to inflation? Is it tamed at 10% or does it need to rise further...which simply increases the amount required from the Fed to be monetised.


The debt is now simply so extreme, it cannot be paid unless GDP and tax take increases SUBSTANTIALLY. The problem is that FFR of 10% induces a major recession/depression and GDP collapses.

The rally, if it materialises, is a last opportunity to exit.

The problem with technicals in a bear market, is that they are far less reliable than they are in a bull market. So while I agree the technicals look ready for a really major bounce, maybe not.

Screen Shot 2022-05-21 at 4.02.54 PM.png

jog on
duc
 
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