Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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This Stagflation situation is a tad annoying. Obviously the Bears have it over the Bulls atm but not enough for me to go Short against the ASX (again). All this money saved up during Lockdowns and people getting ahead of their Mortgages may have ruined what would otherwise have been a good "Bear run".
 
Australia New Home Sales Fall 1.2% MoM in April
Aussie Weakens to Near 2-Year Low
Australia Private House Approvals Down 3% MoM
Australia Building Permits Drop 18.5% MoM
Australia Consumer Mood Plunges in May
Australia Retail Sales Grow for 3rd Month
Australia Business Mood Softens
Australia Flags More Rate Hikes
Australia Services Sector Expands for 5th Month.

RBA minutes out at 11.30am. Maybe that'll spark some action for the momentum Traders.
 
"... The minutes say the significant rise in inflation had been largely the result of global factors, which were likely to have a more temporary effect.

"(But) the flow of information on inflation and wages over the preceding month had been consistent with more persistent inflationary pressures arising from limited spare capacity in the domestic economy," the minutes say. ...

At this stage, economists are expecting a further 0.25 percentage point increase in the cash rate at the RBA's June board meeting.

However, a bigger increase may be seen if Wednesday's wages data for the March quarter proves stronger than forecast.

Whatever the case, economists expect the cash rate could reach around 1.5 per cent by early 2023 ..."

7news.com.au

RBA saw risk of waiting to hike cash rate

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's May board meeting show there was a concern among board members of waiting to raise the cash rate.
7news.com.au 7news.com.au
 
Mohammed Hazabig'un said:
"... The minutes say the significant rise in inflation had been largely the result of global factors, which were likely to have a more temporary effect.

"(But) the flow of information on inflation and wages over the preceding month had been consistent with more persistent inflationary pressures arising from limited spare capacity in the domestic economy," the minutes say. ...

At this stage, economists are expecting a further 0.25 percentage point increase in the cash rate at the RBA's June board meeting.

However, a bigger increase may be seen if Wednesday's wages data for the March quarter proves stronger than forecast.

Whatever the case, economists expect the cash rate could reach around 1.5 per cent by early 2023 ..."

7news.com.au

RBA saw risk of waiting to hike cash rate

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's May board meeting show there was a concern among board members of waiting to raise the cash rate.
7news.com.au 7news.com.au
Click to expand...

Only 1.5%, not terrible not great


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As a person with a Business degree, but not Economics, I'm very interested in the phrase "arising from limited spare capacity in the domestic economy".
This aids forward projection I assume, something I'm working on.
 
qldfrog said:
If inflation is at 5or 8 %,and gdp grows by 4%..what does it says on your economy....?
Unless mistaken, gdp is not inflation corrected...
Click to expand...
I'm not an Economist, but it sounds like more of what we are seeing now, our Economy still pushing strongly into the Inflation "headwinds". Demand still strong. Until Demand faulters our Economy should remain "resilient". Lack of Demand drives recessionary forces in the short term I believe - Keynesian economics.
 
qldfrog said:
If inflation is at 5or 8 %,and gdp grows by 4%..what does it says on your economy....?
Unless mistaken, gdp is not inflation corrected...
Click to expand...
even GDP is not what it used to be ( just like CPI , , unemployment rates , etc etc )

as someone once said ' there are lies , damn lies and statistics '

we seem to be solidly in that world
 
Mohammed Hazabig'un said:
"household and business balance sheets are generally in good shape, an upswing in business investment is underway"
Click to expand...
is that really true ??

( i know it is a quote from an article )

but not from what i an seeing unless the measurement is taken from the worst of the virus reactions ( and excluding the much better times before 2020 )
 
i don't travel around as much as i used to , and i MIGHT be moving around in a 'poverty trap ' ( as fringe suburbs can be ) ( yes there are million dollar homes here , at least that is what they are selling for , but jobs aren't so easy to keep for some )

so i am not seeing this 'miraculous V shape ' recovery , now i would agree with a K shape ( selected winners but not wide-spread ) recovery
 
Yep, Composite Purchasing Managers Index is up. Plant Machinery Capital expenditure is up from -4 to -0.1 lol etc etc
But alot of the other important figures are down ie Small Business sentiment 7 down from 14, and on it goes.

Like the RBA is trying to talk confidence up. Shhhh
 
The Aus Employment numbers are out tomorrow. They are strong already. if they exceed expectations the Market may drop due to strong employment numbers encouraging the RBA to lift Interest Rates faster. If they fall below expectations the Market may drop too, due to Recessionary fears.

Can't win going Long lol.
 
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