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The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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This could go in the gold or panic threads, as it sort of covers both. This guys is an Energy Bunny Gold Bug Austrian Economist. Just ask a question and off he goes.

 
waterbottle said:
Poo has been there ever since 2008.

Poo is everpresent but easily forgotten. Better to bet on a rising market than a dip.
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Too right.

But better to bet on a rising rising market than a tanking rising market.

And I would never bet on a tanking market either.

But there comes a point where your chips are better off the table than on it.

Last point - never bet against the Fed.

Fwiw
 

Words to live, and die, by on the markets.

How will you know when you are betting on a rising rising market and not a tanking rising market without hindsight?

It is in nobodies interest to allow a complete financial meltdown - we learned that in 2008 and we learned how far government would go to avoid it.
 
wayneL said:
Dip buyers are certainly in the market, but are they the strong hands or retail buyers?
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who says the retail buyers won't have strong hands ( i suspect several will ) , the retail buyer doesn't have to face an AGM of disappointed clients ,

now sure some will nurse their losses for years ( like me on MCR and OZL )

i know some directors often consider us annoying , but who do they come calling on when they need extra cash ( and credit is tight )

i am wondering if the propeller is actually near , or say March or later , they have dodged a full-blooded meltdown for nearly two years so far
 
waterbottle said:
Poo has been there ever since 2008.

Poo is everpresent but easily forgotten. Better to bet on a rising market than a dip.
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do i hear anyone arguing 2000 ( for the debt created by the computer panic , and then just papered over )

i bet on the dips and let the rallies ( inflation ) let me look a little bit clever ( a rising tide lifts all boats )
 
i was working for a corporation that came close to losing money during that time , trying to replace 'doomed ' IT gear ( despite being a publisher ) , the 'upgraded systems ' kept it hamstrung and struggling for ten years

it certainly educated me in IT sellers ( at corporate level )

from a weak start in 2000 , 2008 hit it like a wrecking ball ( when ad revenue tumbled to boot )
 
waterbottle said:
Unfortunately it was before my time!
Time to take a trip to Wikipedia...
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As someone who recalls it rather well, in my opinion there overall psychology and "feel" is remarkably similar with cryptocurrencies in recent times as it was with internet stocks back in 1999.

Back then, anything even remotely associated with the internet saw its share price go to the moon. Even totally unrelated businesses, such as junior mining companies, worked out that they could make their share price go up 20 fold simply by adding ".com" to the company name and more than a few did exactly that.

Then there were those who were going to make a fortune selling things online - and no it wasn't Amazon or even eBay at the time but rather, really niche stuff. Probably the most infamous example being dog food - yep, ordinary dog food that you can buy in any supermarket. A fortune was made and lost on it though.

The harsh reality is that whilst there was certainly a long term future in the internet, there was no future in many of those businesses which weren't simply failing to make a profit but in plenty of cases didn't even have any income at all. No real business was taking place, such that no amount of growth would ever make it profitable as there simply was no actual business, but the company was valued at $ millions or even $ billions. Amazing.

The frenzy with cryptos with even those not intended to be serious becoming highly valued along with the high levels of interest from the general public is all eerily familiar. Biggest standout of the lot is people quitting their normal jobs to make money trading - that's exactly what happened back in 1999, exactly the same there.

Comparing cryptos with the bubble in internet stocks, it's akin to watching someone do a perfect cover version of a song you've heard countless times from the original artist. Exact same lyrics and it's the same song just a different band doing it.
 
i am mostly ignoring the crypto-phenomenon ( but some buddies are dabbling there ) but yes i can see your parallels ,

if it was ONLY cryptos this time i wouldn't be so worried , but i see bubbles , here and there ( housing/property ) and almost everywhere ( easy credit , shares , bonds , and many other places )

how many busts can be papered over in the near future , we have had some practice at one-at-a-time , but two , three, even four ???

( because nobody seems to be prepared to accept the discomfort of a proper fix )

and a BIG war is the most preferred distraction ( sadly )
 
You don't.

But you do have to take on what you think are the probabilities... And that is actually a very complicated equation.

I think the government would probably put more into saving the real estate market than the stock market, FWIW.

But even that has become a very complicated equation now. For better or for worse I have a bunker mentality.

I'm farking 60 years old now went to 0 only 8 years ago due to circumstances beyond my control. I've worked up sufficient shekels to retire at any point now and have become pretty damned risk-averse.... So that is jaundicing my view I guess.
 

I am sorry to hear that, but glad to hear you've bounced back.

Your posts, including trembling hand, the duck and Julia's made up my formative years
 
wayneL said:
I think the government would probably put more into saving the real estate market than the stock market, FWIW.
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in AUSTRALIA i would agree , i suspect it might be different in SOME other nations ( UK and US come to mind , but should probably add Japan as well )

sounds like you found the nightmare i have been trying to avoid , and am happy to hear you have found your way out of it

my parents were teens for part of the Great Depression ( and part of WW2 ) so i know bunker mentality better than Goldilocks and the 3 Bears

HOWEVER inflation is possible ( and i don't mean a miserable 8% ) selected risk is needed as well ( unless you are safely in the billionaire class )

good luck
 
Or EV lithium Tesla green fashion
 
Allow for the worst and hope for the best.
IMO in times like the moment, I find it better to sit and wait, I would rather miss a bit of profit, than purchase a chunk of loss.
Even if the market doesn't continue to slide, I can't see any major drivers that will send it souring.
Just my thoughts and I have been wrong on numerous occasions.
 
I would agree @sptrawler

I was thinking the same as I dragged my Woolies trolley full of XAO scrip back in to the office at 4.10 pm yesterday.

I cannot push it as the wheels stick for some reason. I don't hold WOW.

gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
I would agree @sptrawler

I was thinking the same as I dragged my Woolies trolley full of XAO scrip back in to the office at 4.10 pm yesterday.

I cannot push it as the wheels stick for some reason. I don't hold WOW.

gg
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I only need a basket when going to WOW, or Dan's. No sticky wheels. Living 2 days at a time.
 
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