The next Federal Election - 2013 or 2012?

dutchie · 22 April 2012

Calling all citizens of Australia.

It would appear prudent that everyone should now start getting their baseball bats ready and to start sprucing them up for the upcoming federal election.

QLD citizens no doubt already have a head start and should continue having their bats in good condition and at the ready for the next event. Their leadership and skill in the last event is much appreciated by all.

There is an outside chance that an election may be called before 2013 and thus this early reminder for citizens to start their preparations.

Be prepared!

joea · 23 April 2012

dutchie said:
Calling all citizens of Australia.

It would appear prudent that everyone should now start getting their baseball bats ready and to start sprucing them up for the upcoming federal election.

QLD citizens no doubt already have a head start and should continue having their bats in good condition and at the ready for the next event. Their leadership and skill in the last event is much appreciated by all.

There is an outside chance that an election may be called before 2013 and thus this early reminder for citizens to start their preparations.

Be prepared!

The Government cannot operate without money.
The Budget vote is the key for a 2012 election.
The independents are the key to the puzzle!
However its in the hands of the MP's, not the voters.
joea

dutchie · 23 April 2012

Who, on the Labor side, will still be standing after the election?
I think even Rudd will not be there.

As for the independents - non of those will even come close. Windsor is retiring but if he was not he would get the big boot anyway.

The greens will loose some of there share as well.

Generally a replay of the QLD elections.

Anyone have an opinion of the possible final numbers?

StumpyPhantom · 23 April 2012

dutchie said:
Anyone have an opinion of the possible final numbers?

I think it will depend whether Gillard is PM or not, and how many months of the carbon tax we've had to live with

The elctorate's white hot about the imposition of the carbon tax against the stated intention during the 2010 election, and the only way they can voice their protest is at the ballot box because they're not otherwise being heard.

So it depends whether Gillard remains in the top job and continues to shove the carbon tax down our throats with her unique style of presentation.

joea · 23 April 2012

dutchie said:
Who, on the Labor side, will still be standing after the election?
I think even Rudd will not be there.

The greens will loose some of there share as well.

Generally a replay of the QLD elections.

Anyone have an opinion of the possible final numbers?

The Qld election was about "knifing Rudd" and lying.
The other states do not retaliate as hard as Queenslander's, so there will not be a complete rout. That is why NSW CANNOT beat us in state of origin.
Fancy believing Hayne can do the job!!!:

Oops went sideways there.

I say one Federal Labor seat will survive in Qld. Rudd. Posts from other states can declare their thoughts.
joea

Starcraftmazter · 23 April 2012

I hope as late as possible so as much as possible of the NBN gets built.

dutchie said:
As for the independents - non of those will even come close. Windsor is retiring but if he was not he would get the big boot anyway.

Any proof? NBN take-up in Armidale is over 90%. I highly doubt New England residents will vote out the man who revived their region and brought them the fastest internet in the world. Also, when/where did he claim that he was retiring?

I lived in NE before moving to Sydney to study at uni, and I can say that he is very popular, and I find it highly unlikely he would ever be voted out.

In terms of the election, people overall - just like last election, are incredibly unsatisfied with both parties and both leaders of the ALP and LNP. And I agree with them.

Thus I can only logically imply that the Green and/or Independent vote will go up in the coming election.

Overall, the longer before the next election, the better chances ALP/Greens will have of winning, because of looming interest rate cuts (which solely determine the popularity of incumbent governments).

If the election will be held in 2013, it's quite possible that we will see interest rates in the 3% mark, meaning ALP will have more than enough popularity to maintain government.

The other thing is that the tax-free threshold gets increased by 12k in this coming financial year, which will see a lot of low-income earners with more money in their pocket. That will probably be a big dividend for the ALP.

StumpyPhantom · 23 April 2012

Starcraftmazter said:
I hope as late as possible so as much as possible of the NBN gets built.

Any proof? NBN take-up in Armidale is over 90%. I highly doubt New England residents will vote out the man who revived their region and brought them the fastest internet in the world. Also, when/where did he claim that he was retiring?

I lived in NE before moving to Sydney to study at uni, and I can say that he is very popular, and I find it highly unlikely he would ever be voted out.

In terms of the election, people overall - just like last election, are incredibly unsatisfied with both parties and both leaders of the ALP and LNP. And I agree with them.

Thus I can only logically imply that the Green and/or Independent vote will go up in the coming election.

Overall, the longer before the next election, the better chances ALP/Greens will have of winning, because of looming interest rate cuts (which solely determine the popularity of incumbent governments).

If the election will be held in 2013, it's quite possible that we will see interest rates in the 3% mark, meaning ALP will have more than enough popularity to maintain government.

The other thing is that the tax-free threshold gets increased by 12k in this coming financial year, which will see a lot of low-income earners with more money in their pocket. That will probably be a big dividend for the ALP.

That's an interesting psychological assumption here.

Would you be more likely to vote for the incumbent AFTER they have delivered you the benefit (NBN in your region, or lifting the tax-free threshhold to $18k) or if the benefit you wanted could only be obtained if you voted them back into government.

The latter proposition doesn't need much analysis. Assuming the opposition is not making the same promise, you have to give them your vote in exchange for the benefit.

I would however be interested in anyone's views where they have already had the NBN in their region. Do you feel indebted to the Gillard government for this reason alone and feel compelled to chuck in your vote with their lot?

Starcraftmazter · 23 April 2012

StumpyPhantom said:
Would you be more likely to vote for the incumbent AFTER they have delivered you the benefit (NBN in your region, or lifting the tax-free threshhold to $18k) or if the benefit you wanted could only be obtained if you voted them back into government.

While I appreciate that your point makes a lot of logical sense, I would suggest that the majority of the electorate is not smart enough to reason like that.

StumpyPhantom said:
I would however be interested in anyone's views where they have already had the NBN in their region. Do you feel indebted to the Gillard government for this reason alone and feel compelled to chuck in your vote with their lot?

There is one more issue here - and that is mobility. Regardless of whether one lives in an NBN covered area or not, it is good to know that if they want to relocate for either work, story and pleasure, they will still get the same quality service.

The biggest problem with Australia's telecommunications is having to look up which telephone exchange your potential residential address is covered by, which ISPs have hardware there, and how far away is it (that is, how fast and stable will the Internet be). Not to mention the mess Telstra makes of connecting people to Naked services.

The concept of a unified network - that you can easily and quickly connect the same quality Internet service, provided by your ISP of choice, in 93% of premises is absolutely revolutionary.

sails · 23 April 2012

Starcraftmazter said:
While I appreciate that your point makes a lot of logical sense, I would suggest that the majority of the electorate is not smart enough to reason like that...

THe average Aussie voter might just be a bit smarter than for which you give them credit. This from Centrebet:

New England Electorate - House of Representatives
COALITION (LIB/NAT) 1.34
WINDSOR, Tony (IND) 3.25
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY 21.00

Starcraftmazter · 23 April 2012

sails said:
THe average Aussie voter might just be a bit smarter than for which you give them credit.

Hah. No intelligent voters would allow Australia to be in the position it is in now. The fact is, the majority of electorate severely misunderstand everything from economics, to immigration.

dutchie · 23 April 2012

Starcraftmazter said:
Any proof? NBN take-up in Armidale is over 90%. I highly doubt New England residents will vote out the man who revived their region and brought them the fastest internet in the world. Also, when/where did he claim that he was retiring?

I lived in NE before moving to Sydney to study at uni, and I can say that he is very popular, and I find it highly unlikely he would ever be voted out.

I can't find the reference to Tony Windsor retiring after this term. It was quite a while ago (I think it was around the time when they initially negotiated with Julia).

Windsor was very popular in the New England electorate before his alignment with Labor.

Now both the members of New England and Lyne are both extremely disliked (and that's an understatement). Both have been threatened.

These two electorates would be bringing two bats if both men were seeking reelection (I would not be surprised if Oakshott does not even nominate). The existence or not of the NBN or tax breaks will be irrelevant to these two electorates.

StumpyPhantom · 23 April 2012

dutchie said:
I can't find the reference to Tony Windsor retiring after this term. It was quite a while ago (I think it was around the time when they initially negotiated with Julia).

Windsor was very popular in the New England electorate before his alignment with Labor.

Now both the members of New England and Lyne are both extremely disliked (and that's an understatement). Both have been threatened.

These two electorates would be bringing two bats if both men were seeking reelection (I would not be surprised if Oakshott does not even nominate). The existence or not of the NBN or tax breaks will be irrelevant to these two electorates.

I think that's right. They might be selling their capacity to deliver but nobody who thought about it for a minute would think they would be in a similar position in the next Parliament.

Julia · 23 April 2012

Starcraftmazter said:
I highly doubt New England residents will vote out the man who revived their region and brought them the fastest internet in the world.

How many of them feel the need for "the fastest internet in the world"?
Why wouldn't they vote out the member who was instrumental in delivering them increased cost of living in the carbon tax they were assured would not happen?.

Overall, the longer before the next election, the better chances ALP/Greens will have of winning, because of looming interest rate cuts (which solely determine the popularity of incumbent governments).

What total rubbish. People vote on the basis of many factors outside of interest rates.

The other thing is that the tax-free threshold gets increased by 12k in this coming financial year,

Why are you continuing to spread this misinformation? I have previously explained to you that the tax free threshold only increases by around $2000, due to the abolition of the low income tax offset which previously allowed people to pay no tax on incomes up to around $16,000, (including the $6000 tax free threshold).

which will see a lot of low-income earners with more money in their pocket. That will probably be a big dividend for the ALP.

More rubbish. As people will realise when they do their tax returns.
Then they will wake up to the line of spin the government has fed them which they - and apparently you with your intellectual superiority (!) - have swallowed.

StumpyPhantom · 23 April 2012

Yeah - Starcraftmazter is clearly playing to (and assuming) the lowest common denominator here.

But even with no brains, the "no brainer" question to ask surely has to be "What's in it for me?"

That carbon tax is going to permeate everything when it comes in. Gillard will just have to go when that happens...at the hands of her own caucus

Ducksbane · 24 April 2012

Starcraftmazter said:
While I appreciate that your point makes a lot of logical sense, I would suggest that the majority of the electorate is not smart enough to reason like that.

There is one more issue here - and that is mobility. Regardless of whether one lives in an NBN covered area or not, it is good to know that if they want to relocate for either work, story and pleasure, they will still get the same quality service.

The biggest problem with Australia's telecommunications is having to look up which telephone exchange your potential residential address is covered by, which ISPs have hardware there, and how far away is it (that is, how fast and stable will the Internet be). Not to mention the mess Telstra makes of connecting people to Naked services.

The concept of a unified network - that you can easily and quickly connect the same quality Internet service, provided by your ISP of choice, in 93% of premises is absolutely revolutionary.

As a voter in Mr Windsors electorate I can assure you I won't be using a bat ... nowhere near good enough .... think Thermonuclear weapon or greater!

The only problem is I haven't ever voted for him because I always thought he was a self interested, not overly bright twat (but what do I know ? ) ... so he can't lose my vote.

As for Oakshot ... purlease ! I could go on but it would take about as long as one of his speeches.

joea · 24 April 2012

Over the last two weeks there have been a number of small events happening.
Each too small in its own right to suggest an early election. However when all are put together, it does suggest Labor is preparing for an election between July and December 2012.

i.e. Labor expects Swan to lose his seat in Qld, and at 58 he will retire from politics.
A name has been nominated to stand in his place, in his electorate. (Cameron Milner)
joea

DB008 · 24 April 2012

Julia said:
How many of them feel the need for "the fastest internet in the world"?
Why wouldn't they vote out the member who was instrumental in delivering them increased cost of living in the carbon tax they were assured would not happen?.

What total rubbish. People vote on the basis of many factors outside of interest rates.

Why are you continuing to spread this misinformation? I have previously explained to you that the tax free threshold only increases by around $2000, due to the abolition of the low income tax offset which previously allowed people to pay no tax on incomes up to around $16,000, (including the $6000 tax free threshold).

More rubbish. As people will realise when they do their tax returns.
Then they will wake up to the line of spin the government has fed them which they - and apparently you with your intellectual superiority (!) - have swallowed.

Very good post Julia!

I wholeheartedly agree. Some people don't have 'real life' experience, and that counts for something in my eyes.

SCM thinks that the work is going to sink into a black-hole and we'll all be homeless before 2020 with house prices devaluing by ~40%+...(I still have him on ignore, so l can only see it when people requite him)

joea · 24 April 2012

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...tirement-rumours/story-fn59niix-1226337112875

This fellow "could not lie straight in bed."

When he loses his seat he will have a gig left in him. Won't be with the miners!
joea

Starcraftmazter · 26 April 2012

Julia said:
How many of them feel the need for "the fastest internet in the world"?

Over 90%, apparently.

Julia said:
Why wouldn't they vote out the member who was instrumental in delivering them increased cost of living in the carbon tax they were assured would not happen?.

What cost of living increase is that? I'd say the only cost of living comes from taxes that people have to pay directly. Also, when did Tony Windsor promise the carbon tax was not going to happen?

Julia said:
What total rubbish. People vote on the basis of many factors outside of interest rates.

That's the popular, yet incorrect perception. I'm not saying there aren't other factors; merely that they are less relevant in a country drowning in mortgage debt.

Julia said:
Why are you continuing to spread this misinformation? I have previously explained to you that the tax free threshold only increases by around $2000, due to the abolition of the low income tax offset which previously allowed people to pay no tax on incomes up to around $16,000, (including the $6000 tax free threshold).

The new threshold effects everyone - not just low income earners. Because of it, you and I will pay no tax for the first $18,000 we make.

Julia said:
More rubbish. As people will realise when they do their tax returns.
Then they will wake up to the line of spin the government has fed them which they - and apparently you with your intellectual superiority (!) - have swallowed.

Incorrect. In fact your counter-claim that low income earners will not be taxed less is ludicrous, as if it were true the media would call the government out on their claim without delay.

$18,000 earnings
Before: $300
After: $0

$37,000 earnings
Before: $4,330
After: $3,127

$50,000 earnings
Before: $7,850
After: $7,547

http://www.ato.gov.au/individuals/c...002/046/002/002&mnu=42957&mfp=001/002&st=&cy=
http://www.ato.gov.au/individuals/c...002/046/002/002&mnu=42957&mfp=001/002&st=&cy=
http://www.ato.gov.au/individuals/content.aspx?menuid=42957&doc=/content/00309813.htm&page=2&H2

(Note, medicare levy not taken into account in my above calculations because I can't be bothered).

sails · 26 April 2012

SCM - you are a bit out of date with your chart ending in January this year - labor have lost more ground since then.

Last newspoll the 2pp was 56 for coalition and 44 for alp.

Source:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/polling

The next Federal Election - 2013 or 2012?

dutchie

joea

dutchie

StumpyPhantom

joea

Starcraftmazter

StumpyPhantom

Starcraftmazter

sails

Starcraftmazter

dutchie

StumpyPhantom

Julia

In Memoriam

StumpyPhantom

Ducksbane

joea

DB008

joea

Starcraftmazter

sails

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