The Next Bear Phase

[Wysiwyg]

Have to concede this bear phase is looking to drag on like some boring 2 a.m. black and white movie. Thanks o.p. for letting us in on the know.

 

[skc]

Or a comment from Buffett,

That buffet interview was done back in July 2010...things may have changed a bit since?

 

[Tysonboss1]

That buffet interview was done back in July 2010...things may have changed a bit since?

Like what?

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Let's face it no one really knows if we are going belly up or not. My personal feeling is there is a good chance that it may happen in my lifetime. Most of my time on earth has been pretty peachy, and I'm at a stage of life where I'm feeling pretty bearish.

What I'm interested in is: when some of you say the world is going to end, things will never be the same again, etc - and you put your views on a public forum and tell other people what you think - does it make you feel better when you do that?

Are you bearish guys:

1. just spruking to help the rest of us plebs deal with the future or
2. hoping we all fail and drown, so you can stand above us and say "I told you so" or
3. just pessimistic people

#1 please. Couldn't care less about 2, optimistic about my own financial future......

It's simple mathematics and a confidence game really. You can try to understand what's going on or just believe that a a group of fellow human beings with little more than currency printing presses will eventually be able to save us.

And no, it doesn't make me feel any better for it, but I can't stand by and read post's which are just as bullish, usually prefaced with the words 'I hope' and based on little more than a guess rather than some solid data.

These black swan events can be calculated to an extent - it has been calculated when Japan will no longer be able to rely on domestic savings to fund their deficits and will have to go cap in hand to the rest of the world - 2016. That was before the earth quake and tsunami so that date is probably a lot sooner now. Etc etc

Ditto for the worlds largest economy - income is not greater than expenses, and will never be unless the obese citizens start to live within their means ie substantial lowering of living standards - something which no politician is willing to take the blame for.

Some tips - get educated, look past the 'expert' opinions on data and the excuses they have for why it's not meeting expectations eg the weather etc,. Find out what GDP is. Find out what money is. Find out who controls it and where it ends up etc

 

[wayneL]

Firstly as I stated here some time ago, I'm still generally a bear, but that I didn't believe that we'd return to a bear market for quite some time.

Lat night's Dow sinkage got me thinking... I don't think we are at the cusp of a major selloff yet, despite generally poor economic conditions and last night's action, mainly because Uncle Ben's helicopter is still fueled up and on standby.

But it is IMO getting closer to being in the foreseeable future.

So how about a bit of soothsaying? When is the next bear starting?

I can hear Uncle Ben's fleet of Iroquois' starting up from here.

 

[builder2818]

They said the XJO should be trading at around 5500 points by the end of year. Does this mean the 'experts' have got it wrong?

Hahaha........who is going to bail the governments of the world out now they have exhausted themselves bailing others out?

 

[Aussiejeff]

They said the XJO should be trading at around 5500 points by the end of year. Does this mean the 'experts' have got it wrong?

Hahaha........who is going to bail the governments of the world out now they have exhausted themselves bailing others out?

Remember this day in history - 4th Aug 2011.

The day GFC II "officially" began.

Watch in awe as the good ship "Ozecon" flounders in a sea of red today. Man the lifeboats!! Abandon ship before the close of trade (lest more horror is visited upon the Dow tonight)!!!

Now, amongst all the Bullhype over the last few weeks, who woulda thunk it possible?

Talk about chickens coming home to roost. Expect Juliar to broadcast to the Nation shortly with soothing words such as "our economy is strong & we WILL return to surplus in 2013". Haw, haw, haw!!! Bank guarantees announced next week, anyone?



A bit of data fer y'all...

The VIX, as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index is known, jumped 35 percent to 31.66 at 4:15 p.m. in New York, the highest level since July 2010 and the biggest rise since Feb. 27, 2007. The index measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, which fell 4.8 percent and had the biggest nine-day drop since the March 2009 start of the bull market.

“It’s fear,” Luke Rahbari, a VIX options trader at Stutland Equities LLC in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “There’s definitely a lot of uncertainty in the market, whether you want to talk about European banks, European sovereign debt, slowing growth in the U.S.”

Global stocks had their biggest one-day rout since March 2009. A measure of global equities fell 10 percent from this year’s high in May, entering its first correction in more than a year, amid concern about a recession. The MSCI All-Country World Index of stocks in developed and emerging markets slid 4.3 percent to 310.94, falling 13 percent from its May 2 high.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...arch-as-economic-data-pushes-down-stocks.html

 

[wayneL]

Time to recycle some of my favourite cartoons?

 

[Aussiejeff]

I can hear Uncle Ben's fleet of Iroquois' starting up from here.

*coff, splutter*

Wot's that? Outta gas????

 

[Aussiejeff]

Time to recycle some of my favourite cartoons?

View attachment 43840

LOL

I did notice my monitor was a bit furry round the edges this morning....

 

[Aussiejeff]

Maybe Coles knew something when they decided to release their "Down, down, prices are down" jingle ads!

 

[skc]

Remember this day in history - 4th Aug 2011.

The day GFC II "officially" began.

I would have picked Tuesday 2 Aug as D-Day for its theatrical value.

They said the XJO should be trading at around 5500 points by the end of year. Does this mean the 'experts' have got it wrong?

Hahaha........who is going to bail the governments of the world out now they have exhausted themselves bailing others out?

There is a rumour that the Martians are thinking of bailing us out.

There is also a rumour that the XJO will do a 2-for-1 consolidation, so the 5500 is still on target for the end of the year.

Time to recycle some of my favourite cartoons?

Where's that thread showing despite traders on the floor?

Maybe Coles knew something when they decided to release their "Down, down, prices are down" jingle ads!

I am wearing my big red foam hands today while trading.

 

[Aussiejeff]

=Aussiejeff - Expect Juliar to broadcast to the Nation shortly with soothing words such as "our economy is strong & we WILL return to surplus in 2013". Haw, haw, haw!!! Bank guarantees announced next week, anyone?

Gee, already? Swaneee jumped the gun.. must be very worried...

FEARS of a global economic recession are climbing as a dramatic fall on Wall St sparks a worldwide sell-off response, but Australia is in a relatively strong position due to strong fundamentals, according to the Federal Treasurer.

Treasurer Wayne Swan has moved to soothe investors' nerves amid plunging global share markets, saying Australia is a world apart from the situation in Europe and the United States.

The Australian share market slumped around 4 per cent this morning following a similar drop on Wall Street over rising fears of another economic downturn and worries Europe's debt problems will widen.

"Australians should never forget that our economic credentials are among the strongest in the developed world," the treasurer said.

"Australia has a proven track record of dealing with global economic uncertainty. There is just a world of difference between the situation in Australia and the situation in Europe and the United States."

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/br...opean-us-decline/story-e6frf7ko-1226108933381

See?Sunshine 'n Lollipoops all round! Buy, buy, buy!!!

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Treasurer Wayne Swan has moved to soothe investors' nerves amid plunging global share markets, saying Australia is a world apart from the situation in Europe and the United States.

Yes, luckily we can survive thanks to one of the most stable & transparent economies in the world - China, who apparently don't trade at all with either Europe or the US???

 

[Aussiejeff]

Bears will rejoice over this news - arguably what could be the final nail in the Obama Mis-administration's bulging coffin...

Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, a central figure in the U.S. government’s bailouts of Wall Street banks and efforts to raise the debt limit, told President Barack Obama that he intends to remain in his job.

Geithner, 49, will stay on at least through the 2012 election, according to an administration official who was not authorized to comment publicly.

Geithner, the last remaining member of Obama’s original economic team, made his announcement after months of speculation over his future. He told White House officials this year that he was considering leaving once a deal to raise the nation’s borrowing limit deal was reached. Obama signed an increase in the limit on Aug. 2.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...to-stay-in-his-job-as-treasury-secretary.html

Maybe this is the galling news that has spooked the overnight US futures to -259!!

 

[Aussiejeff]

Standard & Poor have shown a "stunning lack of knowledge" in their unprecendented decision to downgrade the US credit rating, says US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.

"I think S&P has shown really terrible judgement and they've handled themselves poorly, and they have shown a stunning lack of knowledge about basic US fiscal budget math and I think they came to exactly the wrong conclusion," Geithner has said in an interview with NBC News.

http://www.news.com.au/business/mar...ts/story-e6frfm30-1226110570466#ixzz1UOAQnnp9

Keep it up, Timmy. Your sour-grapes petulance will be rewarded, I'm sure...

 

[Aussiejeff]

With so many exchanges worldwide having banned short selling after the last downward plummet all of a week or so ago, pray tell where will the quick market bounce that used to result from shorts covering their positions (ie booking the profits) come from now?

Outta some smart-ar$e political bum$?



PS - US futures -491 - and counting....

 

[tech/a]

So are you shorting indexes.?

 

[Aussiejeff]

So are you shorting indexes.?

Not this little black duck!
No tech, I'll leave that to those with the brains and/or desire to live that vicarious day-to-day rollercoaster existence.
I lost the stomach for day trading post GFC1 when I woke out of a daze, looked in the kitty and the cupboard was almost bare....

Cheers and good luck!

aj

 

[MR.]

Yes, luckily we can survive thanks to one of the most stable & transparent economies in the world - China, who apparently don't trade at all with either Europe or the US???

Now, now I sense the start of rumours there UF. As if, China’s major export partner/s. Ha ha.….. China ain’t dat silly neither are we or da markets…. As if all those Chinese factories and major container export facilities had Europe or the good ol' US of A in mind ! :nono:

“Don’t worry there Rose, I have built you a good ship, we are the sole supplier for China’s endless thirst of commodities.â