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- 1 October 2008
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Taking a Macro View. What people don't seem to be noticing about this whole ongoing GFC is China. The roll it played to bring this all about. They kept there currency and labor costs so artificially low by using slave labor and currency manipulation to monopolized global manufacturing and cause much of the stress on countries who continued to try to play fair.
The real danger from this was that companies in countries playing by the rules would go bust or China would try to take them all over and rule the world! But most have managed to stay afloat and recapitalize. The world has been saved even though the crisis still appears to be in play.
The US has taken the first sensible step by printing money to counter what China has done for around 40 years by leveling the currency playing field, some what, as soon as Chinas labour costs became a little more realistic. This will counter some of the currency cheating China has been doing( that no one will talk about openly) and allow liquidity for corporate activity when banks become confident to lend again. There will not be a QE3 because QE1&2 has not even been lent out yet. It's just sitting there! The next logical step is the Euro countries print moeny to do the same when the time is right. That way they will easily afford to bail out countries quite cheaply and the global playing field will be on a more even keel in terms of balanced currency valuation. This means inflation will be an issue and will hurt China most, but will also make commodities most valuable as all money becomes worth less and real things like copper etc are more valuable. India and other asian economies will take up any slack in China weekness as they emerge in a more organic fashion than Chinas manipulated attempt to bankrupt and over take the world. Commodities and equities just get more and more valuable with devalued currencies allover the shop! Chinas cheating backfires on itself-problem solved.
The real danger from this was that companies in countries playing by the rules would go bust or China would try to take them all over and rule the world! But most have managed to stay afloat and recapitalize. The world has been saved even though the crisis still appears to be in play.
The US has taken the first sensible step by printing money to counter what China has done for around 40 years by leveling the currency playing field, some what, as soon as Chinas labour costs became a little more realistic. This will counter some of the currency cheating China has been doing( that no one will talk about openly) and allow liquidity for corporate activity when banks become confident to lend again. There will not be a QE3 because QE1&2 has not even been lent out yet. It's just sitting there! The next logical step is the Euro countries print moeny to do the same when the time is right. That way they will easily afford to bail out countries quite cheaply and the global playing field will be on a more even keel in terms of balanced currency valuation. This means inflation will be an issue and will hurt China most, but will also make commodities most valuable as all money becomes worth less and real things like copper etc are more valuable. India and other asian economies will take up any slack in China weekness as they emerge in a more organic fashion than Chinas manipulated attempt to bankrupt and over take the world. Commodities and equities just get more and more valuable with devalued currencies allover the shop! Chinas cheating backfires on itself-problem solved.